Data-Driven Wildfire Propagation Modeling with FARSITE-EnKF

The goal of this study is to provide a framework for future researchers to understand and use the FARSITE wildfire-forecasting model with data assimilation. Current wildfire models lack the ability to provide accurate prediction of fire front position faster than real-time. When FARSITE is coupled with a recursive ensemble filter, the data assimilation forecast method improves. The scope includes an explanation of the standalone FARSITE application, technical details on FARSITE integration with a parallel program coupler called OpenPALM, and a model demonstration of the FARSITE-Ensemble Kalman Filter software using the FireFlux I experiment by Craig Clements. The results show that the fire front forecast is improved with the proposed data-driven methodology than with the standalone FARSITE model.

DESIGN, MODELING, AND FABRICATION OF MICROROBOT LEGS

This dissertation presents work done in the design, modeling, and fabrication of magnetically actuated microrobot legs. Novel fabrication processes for manufacturing multi-material compliant mechanisms have been used to fabricate effective legged robots at both the meso and micro scales, where the meso scale refers to the transition between macro and micro scales. This work discusses the development of a novel mesoscale manufacturing process, Laser Cut Elastomer Refill (LaCER), for prototyping millimeter-scale multi-material compliant mechanisms with elastomer hinges. Additionally discussed is an extension of previous work on the development of a microscale manufacturing process for fabricating micrometer-sale multi-material compliant mechanisms with elastomer hinges, with the added contribution of a method for incorporating magnetic materials for mechanism actuation using externally applied fields. As both of the fabrication processes outlined make significant use of highly compliant elastomer hinges, a fast, accurate modeling method for these hinges was desired for mechanism characterization and design. An analytical model was developed for this purpose, making use of the pseudo rigid-body (PRB) model and extending its utility to hinges with significant stretch component, such as those fabricated from elastomer materials. This model includes 3 springs with stiffnesses relating to material stiffness and hinge geometry, with additional correction factors for aspects particular to common multi-material hinge geometry. This model has been verified against a finite element analysis model (FEA), which in turn was matched to experimental data on mesoscale hinges manufactured using LaCER. These modeling methods have additionally been verified against experimental data from microscale hinges manufactured using the Si/elastomer/magnetics MEMS process. The development of several mechanisms is also discussed: including a mesoscale LaCER-fabricated hexapedal millirobot capable of walking at 2.4 body lengths per second; prototyped mesoscale LaCER-fabricated underactuated legs with asymmetrical features for improved performance; 1 centimeter cubed LaCER-fabricated magnetically-actuated hexapods which use the best-performing underactuated leg design to locomote at up to 10.6 body lengths per second; five microfabricated magnetically actuated single-hinge mechanisms; a 14-hinge, 11-link microfabricated gripper mechanism; a microfabricated robot leg mechansim demonstrated clearing a step height of 100 micrometers; and a 4 mm x 4 mm x 5 mm, 25 mg microfabricated magnetically-actuated hexapod, demonstrated walking at up to 2.25 body lengths per second.

Experimental Modeling of Twin-Screw Extrusion Processes to Predict Properties of Extruded Composites

Twin-screw extrusion is used to compound fillers into a polymer matrix in order to improve the properties of the final product. The resultant properties of the composite are determined by the operating conditions used during extrusion processing. Changes in the operating conditions affect the physics of the melt flow, inducing unique composite properties. In the following work, the Residence Stress Distribution methodology has been applied to model both the stress behavior and the property response of a twin-screw compounding process as a function of the operating conditions. The compounding of a pigment into a polymer melt has been investigated to determine the effect of stress on the degree of mixing, which will affect the properties of the composite. In addition, the pharmaceutical properties resulting from the compounding of an active pharmaceutical ingredient are modeled as a function of the operating conditions, indicating the physical behavior inducing the property responses.

Studying the Causes and Consequences of Internal Labor Migration Using Survey and Administrative Data Sources

This dissertation comprises three chapters. The first chapter motivates the use of a novel data set combining survey and administrative sources for the study of internal labor migration. By following a sample of individuals from the American Community Survey (ACS) across their employment outcomes over time according to the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) database, I construct a measure of geographic labor mobility that allows me to exploit information about individuals prior to their move. This enables me to explore aspects of the migration decision, such as homeownership and employment status, in ways that have not previously been possible. In the second chapter, I use this data set to test the theory that falling home prices affect a worker’s propensity to take a job in a different metropolitan area from where he is currently located. Employing a within-CBSA and time estimation that compares homeowners to renters in their propensities to relocate for jobs, I find that homeowners who have experienced declines in the nominal value of their homes are approximately 12% less likely than average to take a new job in a location outside of the metropolitan area where they currently reside. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that housing lock-in has contributed to the decline in labor mobility of homeowners during the recent housing bust. The third chapter focuses on a sample of unemployed workers in the same data set, in order to compare the unemployment durations of those who find subsequent employment by relocating to a new metropolitan area, versus those who find employment in their original location. Using an instrumental variables strategy to address the endogeneity of the migration decision, I find that out-migrating for a new job significantly reduces the time to re-employment. These results stand in contrast to OLS estimates, which suggest that those who move have longer unemployment durations. This implies that those who migrate for jobs in the data may be particularly disadvantaged in their ability to find employment, and thus have strong short-term incentives to relocate.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

Guided Migration and Collective Behavior: Cell Dynamics during Cancer Progression

This dissertation focuses on gaining understanding of cell migration and collective behavior through a combination of experiment, analysis, and modeling techniques. Cell migration is a ubiquitous process that plays an important role during embryonic development and wound healing as well as in diseases like cancer, which is a particular focus of this work. As cancer cells become increasingly malignant, they acquire the ability to migrate away from the primary tumor and spread throughout the body to form metastatic tumors. During this process, changes in gene expression and the surrounding tumor environment can lead to changes in cell migration characteristics. In this thesis, I analyze how cells are guided by the texture of their environment and how cells cooperate with their neighbors to move collectively. The emergent properties of collectively moving groups are a particular focus of this work as collective cell dynamics are known to change in diseases such as cancer. The internal machinery for cell migration involves polymerization of the actin cytoskeleton to create protrusions that---in coordination with retraction of the rear of the cell---lead to cell motion. This actin machinery has been previously shown to respond to the topography of the surrounding surface, leading to guided migration of amoeboid cells. Here we show that epithelial cells on nanoscale ridge structures also show changes in the morphology of their cytoskeletons; actin is found to align with the ridge structures. The migration of the cells is also guided preferentially along the ridge length. These ridge structures are on length scales similar to those found in tumor microenvironments and as such provide a system for studying the response of the cells' internal migration machinery to physiologically relevant topographical cues. In addition to sensing surface topography, individual cells can also be influenced by the pushing and pulling of neighboring cells. The emergent properties of collectively migrating cells show interesting dynamics and are relevant for cancer progression, but have been less studied than the motion of individual cells. We use Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) to extract the motion of a collectively migrating cell sheet from time lapse images. The resulting flow fields allow us to analyze collective behavior over multiple length and time scales. To analyze the connection between individual cell properties and collective migration behavior, we compare experimental flow fields with the migration of simulated cell groups. Our collective migration metrics allow for a quantitative comparison between experimental and simulated results. This comparison shows that tissue-scale decreases in collective behavior can result from changes in individual cell activity without the need to postulate the existence of subpopulations of leader cells or global gradients. In addition to tissue-scale trends in collective behavior, the migration of cell groups includes localized dynamic features such as cell rearrangements. An individual cell may smoothly follow the motion of its neighbors (affine motion) or move in a more individualistic manner (non-affine motion). By decomposing individual motion into both affine and non-affine components, we measure cell rearrangements within a collective sheet. Finally, finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) values capture the stretching of the flow field and reflect its chaotic character. Applying collective migration analysis techniques to experimental data on both malignant and non-malignant human breast epithelial cells reveals differences in collective behavior that are not found from analyzing migration speeds alone. Non-malignant cells show increased cooperative motion on long time scales whereas malignant cells remain uncooperative as time progresses. Combining multiple analysis techniques also shows that these two cell types differ in their response to a perturbation of cell-cell adhesion through the molecule E-cadherin. Non-malignant MCF10A cells use E-cadherin for short time coordination of collective motion, yet even with decreased E-cadherin expression, the cells remain coordinated over long time scales. In contrast, the migration behavior of malignant and invasive MCF10CA1a cells, which already shows decreased collective dynamics on both time scales, is insensitive to the change in E-cadherin expression.

Guided Migration and Collective Behavior: Cell Dynamics during Cancer Progression

This dissertation focuses on gaining understanding of cell migration and collective behavior through a combination of experiment, analysis, and modeling techniques. Cell migration is a ubiquitous process that plays an important role during embryonic development and wound healing as well as in diseases like cancer, which is a particular focus of this work. As cancer cells become increasingly malignant, they acquire the ability to migrate away from the primary tumor and spread throughout the body to form metastatic tumors. During this process, changes in gene expression and the surrounding tumor environment can lead to changes in cell migration characteristics. In this thesis, I analyze how cells are guided by the texture of their environment and how cells cooperate with their neighbors to move collectively. The emergent properties of collectively moving groups are a particular focus of this work as collective cell dynamics are known to change in diseases such as cancer. The internal machinery for cell migration involves polymerization of the actin cytoskeleton to create protrusions that---in coordination with retraction of the rear of the cell---lead to cell motion. This actin machinery has been previously shown to respond to the topography of the surrounding surface, leading to guided migration of amoeboid cells. Here we show that epithelial cells on nanoscale ridge structures also show changes in the morphology of their cytoskeletons; actin is found to align with the ridge structures. The migration of the cells is also guided preferentially along the ridge length. These ridge structures are on length scales similar to those found in tumor microenvironments and as such provide a system for studying the response of the cells' internal migration machinery to physiologically relevant topographical cues. In addition to sensing surface topography, individual cells can also be influenced by the pushing and pulling of neighboring cells. The emergent properties of collectively migrating cells show interesting dynamics and are relevant for cancer progression, but have been less studied than the motion of individual cells. We use Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) to extract the motion of a collectively migrating cell sheet from time lapse images. The resulting flow fields allow us to analyze collective behavior over multiple length and time scales. To analyze the connection between individual cell properties and collective migration behavior, we compare experimental flow fields with the migration of simulated cell groups. Our collective migration metrics allow for a quantitative comparison between experimental and simulated results. This comparison shows that tissue-scale decreases in collective behavior can result from changes in individual cell activity without the need to postulate the existence of subpopulations of leader cells or global gradients. In addition to tissue-scale trends in collective behavior, the migration of cell groups includes localized dynamic features such as cell rearrangements. An individual cell may smoothly follow the motion of its neighbors (affine motion) or move in a more individualistic manner (non-affine motion). By decomposing individual motion into both affine and non-affine components, we measure cell rearrangements within a collective sheet. Finally, finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE) values capture the stretching of the flow field and reflect its chaotic character. Applying collective migration analysis techniques to experimental data on both malignant and non-malignant human breast epithelial cells reveals differences in collective behavior that are not found from analyzing migration speeds alone. Non-malignant cells show increased cooperative motion on long time scales whereas malignant cells remain uncooperative as time progresses. Combining multiple analysis techniques also shows that these two cell types differ in their response to a perturbation of cell-cell adhesion through the molecule E-cadherin. Non-malignant MCF10A cells use E-cadherin for short time coordination of collective motion, yet even with decreased E-cadherin expression, the cells remain coordinated over long time scales. In contrast, the migration behavior of malignant and invasive MCF10CA1a cells, which already shows decreased collective dynamics on both time scales, is insensitive to the change in E-cadherin expression.