Evaluating Risks of Dam-Reservoir Systems Using Efficient Importance Sampling

The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

Ionospheric Turbulence Near the Upper Hybrid Layer: Theory and Experiment

The thesis presents experimental results, simulations, and theory on turbulence excited in magnetized plasmas near the ionosphere’s upper hybrid layer. The results include: The first experimental observations of super small striations (SSS) excited by the High-Frequency Auroral Research Project (HAARP) The first detection of high-frequency (HF) waves from the HAARP transmitter over a distance of 16x10^3 km The first simulations indicating that upper hybrid (UH) turbulence excites electron Bernstein waves associated with all nearby gyroharmonics Simulation results that indicate that the resulting bulk electron heating near the upper hybrid (UH) resonance is caused primarily by electron Bernstein waves parametrically excited near the first gyroharmonic. On the experimental side we present two sets of experiments performed at the HAARP heating facility in Alaska. In the first set of experiments, we present the first detection of super-small (cm scale) striations (SSS) at the HAARP facility. We detected density structures smaller than 30 cm for the first time through a combination of satellite and ground based measurements. In the second set of experiments, we present the results of a novel diagnostic implemented by the Ukrainian Antarctic Station (UAS) in Verdansky. The technique allowed the detection of the HAARP signal at a distance of nearly 16 Mm, and established that the HAARP signal was injected into the ionospheric waveguide by direct scattering off of dekameter-scale density structures induced by the heater. On the theoretical side, we present results of Vlasov simulations near the upper hybrid layer. These results are consistent with the bulk heating required by previous work on the theory of the formation of descending artificial ionospheric layers (DIALs), and with the new observations of DIALs at HAARP’s upgraded effective radiated power (ERP). The simulations that frequency sweeps, and demonstrate that the heating changes from a bulk heating between gyroharmonics, to a tail acceleration as the pump frequency is swept through the fourth gyroharmonic. These simulations are in good agreement with experiments. We also incorporate test particle simulations that isolate the effects of specific wave modes on heating, and we find important contributions from both electron Bernstein waves and upper hybrid waves, the former of which have not yet been detected by experiments, and have not been previously explored as a driver of heating. In presenting these results, we analyzed data from HAARP diagnostics and assisted in planning the second round of experiments. We integrated the data into a picture of experiments that demonstrated the detection of SSS, hysteresis effects in simulated electromagnetic emission (SEE) features, and the direct scattering of the HF pump into the ionospheric waveguide. We performed simulations and analyzed simulation data to build the understanding of collisionless heating near the upper hybrid layer, and we used these simulations to show that bulk electron heating at the upper hybrid layer is possible, which is required by current theories of DAIL formation. We wrote a test particle simulation to isolate the effects of electron Bernstein waves and upper hybrid layers on collisionless heating, and integrated this code to work with both the output of Vlasov simulations and the input for simulations of DAIL formation.

EXISTENCE OF UNUSED MANAGED CAPACITY ON DEDICATED LANES AND AN ALTERNATIVE ON HOW TO SELL IT VIA AUCTIONS

This dissertation verifies whether the following two hypotheses are true: (1) High-occupancy/toll lanes (and therefore other dedicated lanes) have capacity that could still be used; (2) such unused capacity (or more precisely, “unused managed capacity”) can be sold successfully through a real-time auction. To show that the second statement is true, this dissertation proposes an auction-based metering (ABM) system, that is, a mechanism that regulates traffic that enters the dedicated lanes. Participation in the auction is voluntary and can be skipped by paying the toll or by not registering to the new system. This dissertation comprises the following four components: a measurement of unused managed capacity on an existing HOT facility, a game-theoretic model of an ABM system, an operational description of the ABM system, and a simulation-based evaluation of the system. Some other and more specific contributions of this dissertation include the following: (1) It provides a definition and a methodology for measuring unused managed capacity and another important variable referred as “potential volume increase”. (2) It proves that the game-theoretic model has a unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium. (3) And it provides a specific road design that can be applied or extended to other facilities. The results provide evidence that the hypotheses are true and suggest that the ABM system would benefit a public operator interested in reducing traffic congestion significantly, would benefit drivers when making low-reliability trips (such as work-to-home trips), and would potentially benefit a private operator interested in raising revenue.