Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

COACHES, CLIMATES, “FIELD” GOALS, AND EFFICACY: A “DE-CONSTRUCTION” OF THE MASTERY-APPROACH TO COACHING AND EXAMINATION OF RELATIONSHIPS TO PSYCHOSOCIAL OUTCOMES IN A YOUTH FOOTBALL PLAYER DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM.

In support of the achievement goal theory (AGT), empirical research has demonstrated psychosocial benefits of the mastery-oriented learning climate. In this study, we examined the effects of perceived coaching behaviors on various indicators of psychosocial well-being (competitive anxiety, self-esteem, perceived competence, enjoyment, and future intentions for participation), as mediated by perceptions of the coach-initiated motivational climate, achievement goal orientations and perceptions of sport-specific skills efficacy. Using a pre-post test design, 1,464 boys, ages 10-15 (M = 12.84 years, SD = 1.44), who participated in a series of 12 football skills clinics were surveyed from various locations across the United States. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) path analysis and hierarchical regression analysis, the cumulative direct and indirect effects of the perceived coaching behaviors on the psychosocial variables at post-test were parsed out to determine what types of coaching behaviors are more conducive to the positive psychosocial development of youth athletes. The study demonstrated that how coaching behaviors are perceived impacts the athletes’ perceptions of the motivational climate and achievement goal orientations, as well as self-efficacy beliefs. These effects in turn affect the athletes’ self-esteem, general competence, sport-specific competence, competitive anxiety, enjoyment, and intentions to remain involved in the sport. The findings also clarify how young boys internalize and interpret coaches’ messages through modification of achievement goal orientations and sport-specific efficacy beliefs.

THE EFFECT OF SCHOOL CLIMATE (STUDENT AND TEACHER ENGAGEMENT) ON STUDENT PERFORMANCE

Title of Dissertation: THE EFFECT OF SCHOOL CLIMATE (STUDENT AND TEACHER ENGAGEMENT) ON STUDENT PERFORMANCE Kenneth L. Marcus, Doctor of Education, 2016 Directed By: Dr. Thomas Davis, Assistant Professor, Education Policy and Leadership, Department of Teaching and Learning, Policy and Leadership This quantitative research study was designed to compute correlations/relationships of student engagement and student achievement of fifth grade students. Secondary information was collected on the relationship of FARMS, type of school, hope, and well-being on student achievement. School leaders are charged with ensuring that students achieve academically and demonstrate their ability by meeting identified targets on state and district mandated assessments. Due to increased pressure to meet targets, principals implement academic interventions to improve student learning and overlook the benefits of a positive school climate. This study has provided information on the impact of school climate on student achievement. To conduct this study, the researcher collected two sets of public fifth grade data (Gallup Survey student engagement scores and DSA reading, mathematics, and science scores) to determine the relationship of student performance and school climate. Secondary data were also collected on teacher engagement and the percentage of students receiving FARMS to determine the effect on students. The findings from this study reinforced the belief that school climate can have a positive effect on student achievement. This study contributed quantitative data about the relationship between school climate and school achievement.