4 resultados para Chaotic behavior in systems

em DRUM (Digital Repository at the University of Maryland)


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A fundamental problem in biology is understanding how and why things group together. Collective behavior is observed on all organismic levels - from cells and slime molds, to swarms of insects, flocks of birds, and schooling fish, and in mammals, including humans. The long-term goal of this research is to understand the functions and mechanisms underlying collective behavior in groups. This dissertation focuses on shoaling (aggregating) fish. Shoaling behaviors in fish confer foraging and anti-predator benefits through social cues from other individuals in the group. However, it is not fully understood what information individuals receive from one another or how this information is propagated throughout a group. It is also not fully understood how the environmental conditions and perturbations affect group behaviors. The specific research objective of this dissertation is to gain a better understanding of how certain social and environmental factors affect group behaviors in fish. I focus on two ecologically relevant decision-making behaviors: (i) rheotaxis, or orientation with respect to a flow, and (ii) startle response, a rapid response to a perceived threat. By integrating behavioral and engineering paradigms, I detail specifics of behavior in giant danio Devario aequipinnatus (McClelland 1893), and numerically analyze mathematical models that may be extended to group behavior for fish in general, and potentially other groups of animals as well. These models that predict behavior data, as well as generate additional, testable hypotheses. One of the primary goals of neuroethology is to study an organism's behavior in the context of evolution and ecology. Here, I focus on studying ecologically relevant behaviors in giant danio in order to better understand collective behavior in fish. The experiments in this dissertation provide contributions to fish ecology, collective behavior, and biologically-inspired robotics.

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State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

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This dissertation investigates customer behavior modeling in service outsourcing and revenue management in the service sector (i.e., airline and hotel industries). In particular, it focuses on a common theme of improving firms’ strategic decisions through the understanding of customer preferences. Decisions concerning degrees of outsourcing, such as firms’ capacity choices, are important to performance outcomes. These choices are especially important in high-customer-contact services (e.g., airline industry) because of the characteristics of services: simultaneity of consumption and production, and intangibility and perishability of the offering. Essay 1 estimates how outsourcing affects customer choices and market share in the airline industry, and consequently the revenue implications from outsourcing. However, outsourcing decisions are typically endogenous. A firm may choose whether to outsource or not based on what a firm expects to be the best outcome. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by proposing a structural model which could capture a firm’s profit-maximizing decision-making behavior in a market. This makes possible the prediction of consequences (i.e., performance outcomes) of future strategic moves. Another emerging area in service operations management is revenue management. Choice-based revenue systems incorporate discrete choice models into traditional revenue management algorithms. To successfully implement a choice-based revenue system, it is necessary to estimate customer preferences as a valid input to optimization algorithms. The third essay investigates how to estimate customer preferences when part of the market is consistently unobserved. This issue is especially prominent in choice-based revenue management systems. Normally a firm only has its own observed purchases, while those customers who purchase from competitors or do not make purchases are unobserved. Most current estimation procedures depend on unrealistic assumptions about customer arriving. This study proposes a new estimation methodology, which does not require any prior knowledge about the customer arrival process and allows for arbitrary demand distributions. Compared with previous methods, this model performs superior when the true demand is highly variable.

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Magnesium (Mg) battery is considered as a promising candidate for the next generation battery technology that could potentially replace the current lithium (Li)-ion batteries due to the following factors. Magnesium possesses a higher volumetric capacity than commercialized Li-ion battery anode materials. Additionally, the low cost and high abundance of Mg compared to Li makes Mg batteries even more attractive. Moreover, unlike metallic Li anodes which have a tendency to develop a dendritic structure on the surface upon the cycling of the battery, Mg metal is known to be free from such a hazardous phenomenon. Due to these merits of Mg as an anode, the topic of rechargea¬ble Mg batteries has attracted considerable attention among researchers in the last few decades. However, the aforementioned advantages of Mg batteries have not been fully utilized due to the serious kinetic limitation of Mg2+ diffusion process in many hosting compounds which is believed to be due to a strong electrostatic interaction between divalent Mg2+ ions and hosting matrix. This serious kinetic hindrance is directly related to the lack of cathode materials for Mg battery that provide comparable electrochemical performances to that of Li-based system. Manganese oxide (MnO2) is one of the most well studied electrode materials due to its excellent electrochemical properties, including high Li+ ion capacity and relatively high operating voltage (i.e., ~ 4 V vs. Li/Li+ for LiMn2O4 and ~ 3.2 V vs. Mg/Mg2+). However, unlike the good electrochemical properties of MnO2 realized in Li-based systems, rather poor electrochemical performances have been reported in Mg based systems, particularly with low capacity and poor cycling performances. While the origin of the observed poor performances is believed to be due to the aforementioned strong ionic interaction between the Mg2+ ions and MnO2 lattice resulting in a limited diffusion of Mg2+ ions in MnO2, very little has been explored regarding the charge storage mechanism of MnO2 with divalent Mg2+ ions. This dissertation investigates the charge storage mechanism of MnO2, focusing on the insertion behaviors of divalent Mg2+ ions and exploring the origins of the limited Mg2+ insertion behavior in MnO2. It is found that the limited Mg2+ capacity in MnO2 can be significantly improved by introducing water molecules in the Mg electrolyte system, where the water molecules effectively mitigated the kinetic hindrance of Mg2+ insertion process. The combination of nanostructured MnO2 electrode and water effect provides a synergic effect demonstrating further enhanced Mg2+ insertion capability. Furthermore, it is demonstrated in this study that pre-cycling MnO2 electrodes in water-containing electrolyte activates MnO2 electrode, after which improved Mg2+ capacity is maintained in dry Mg electrolyte. Based on a series of XPS analysis, a conversion mechanism is proposed where magnesiated MnO2 undergoes a conversion reaction to Mg(OH)2 and MnOx and Mn(OH)y species in the presence of water molecules. This conversion process is believed to be the driving force that generates the improved Mg2+ capacity in MnO2 along with the water molecule’s charge screening effect. Finally, it is discussed that upon a consecutive cycling of MnO2 in the water-containing Mg electrolyte, structural water is generated within the MnO2 lattice, which is thought to be the origin of the observed activation phenomenon. The results provided in this dissertation highlight that the divalency of Mg2+ ions result in very different electrochemical behaviors than those of the well-studied monovalent Li+ ions towards MnO2.