Observed Teleconnections in Northern Winter: Subseasonal Evolution and Tropical Linkages

Teleconnections refer to the climate variability links between non-contiguous geographic regions, and tend to be associated with variability in both space and time of the climate’s semi-permanent circulation features. Teleconnections are well-developed in Northern winter, when they influence subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability, notably, in surface temperature and precipitation. This work is comprised of four independent studies that improve understanding of tropical-extratropical teleconnections and their surface climate responses, subseasonal teleconnection evolution, and the utility of teleconnections in attribution of extreme climate events. After an introduction to teleconnection analysis as well as the major teleconnection patterns and associated climatic footprints manifest during Northern winter, the lagged impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on subseasonal climate variability is presented. It is found that monitoring of MJO-related velocity potential anomalies is sufficient to predict MJO impacts. These impacts include, for example, the development of significant positive temperature anomalies over the eastern United States one to three weeks following an anomalous convective dipole with enhanced (suppressed) convection centered over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific). Subseasonal teleconnection evolution is assessed with respect to the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This evolution is analyzed both in the presence and absence of MJO-related circulation anomalies. It is found that removal of the MJO results only in small shifts in the centers of action of the NAO and PNA, and that in either case there is a small but significant lag in which the NAO leads a PNA pattern of opposite phase. Barotropic vorticity analysis suggests that this relationship may result in part from excitation of Rossby waves by the NAO in the Asian waveguide. An attempt is made to elegantly differentiate between the MJO extratropical response and patterns of variability more internal to the extratropics. Analysis of upper-level streamfunction anomalies is successful in this regard, and it is suggested that this is the preferred method for the real time monitoring of tropical-extratropical teleconnections. The extreme 2013-2014 North American winter is reconstructed using teleconnection analysis, and it is found that the North Pacific Oscillation-West Pacific (NPO/WP) pattern was the leading contributor to climate anomalies over much of North America. Such attribution is cautionary given the propensity to implicate the tropics for all midlatitude climate anomalies based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) paradigm. A recent hypothesis of such tropical influence is presented and challenged.

Self-Presentation Styles, Status, and Influence

This research examined effects of individual self-presentation styles on influence in groups. Perceived competence and social acceptance both play a role in determining how much influence group members enjoy. Aggrandizing and deprecating self-presentation styles may affect perceived competence, social acceptance, and ultimately influence. I predicted that aggrandizing self-presentation would lead to perceptions of competence and that self-deprecation would lead to social acceptance. The anticipated strength of those trends, however, was unclear, and I proposed that they would vary depending on status. I conducted two studies designed to assess whether aggrandizing or deprecating self-presentation styles lead to differences in influence outcomes for high and low-status individuals. In Study 1, participants gave feedback and a promotion recommendation for a fictitious (male or female) job candidate based on employee evaluation information presenting the candidate as either deprecating or aggrandizing. The main findings from Study 1 were that aggrandizers were rated as less likable than deprecators. No other predictions were supported. Study 2 was an online experiment in which participants made hiring recommendations in reference to résumés from fictitious applicants that varied by race, gender, and presentation style (aggrandizing, deprecating, or neutral). Results provided some evidence that low-status candidates were punished for using aggrandizing self-presentation strategies. The results of the studies suggest no one- best technique for self-presentation and that there may be costs for aggrandizing or deprecating depending on race and gender.

Who Governs Educational Change? The Paradoxes of State Power and the Pursuit of Educational Reform in Post-Neoliberal Ecuador (2007-2015)

This study identifies and compares competing policy stories of key actors involved in the Ecuadorian education reform under President Rafael Correa from 2007-2015. By revealing these competing policy stories the study generates insights into the political and technical aspects of education reform in a context where state capacity has been eroded by decades of neoliberal policies. Since the elections in 2007, President Correa has focused much of his political effort and capital on reconstituting the state’s authority and capacity to not only formulate but also implement public policies. The concentration of power combined with a capacity building agenda allowed the Correa government to advance an ambitious comprehensive education reform with substantive results in equity and quality. At the same time the concentration of power has undermined a more inclusive and participatory approach which are essential for deepening and sustaining the reform. This study underscores both the limits and importance of state control over education; the inevitable conflicts and complexities associated with education reforms that focus on quality; and the limits and importance of participation in reform. Finally, it examines the analytical benefits of understanding governance, participation and quality as socially constructed concepts that are tied to normative and ideological interests.