RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

SPINNING NARRATIVES ACROSS POLITICAL DIVIDES: HARNESSING THE CULTURAL POWER OF A STORY WELL-TOLD

This dissertation explores how two American storytellers, considered by many in their to be exemplary in their craft, rely on narrative strategies to communicate to their audiences on divisive political topics in a way that both invokes feelings of pleasure and connection and transcends party identification and ideological divides. Anna Quindlen, through her political columns and op-eds, and Aaron Sorkin, through his television show The West Wing, have won over a politically diverse fan base in spite of the fact that their writing espouses liberal political viewpoints. By telling stories that entertain, first and foremost, Quindlen and Sorkin are able to have a material impact on their audiences on both dry and controversial topics, accomplishing that which 19th Century writer and activist Harriet Farley made her practice: writing in such a way to gain the access necessary to “do good by stealth.” This dissertation will argue that it is their skilled use of storytelling elements, which capitalize on the cultural relationship humans have with storytelling, that enables Quindlen and Sorkin to achieve this. The dissertation asks: How do stories shape the beliefs, perspectives, and cognitive functions of humans? How do stories construct culture and interact with cultural values? What is the media’s role in shaping society? What gives stories their power to unite as a medium? What is the significance of the experience of reading or hearing a well-told story, of how it feels? What are the effects of Quindlen’s and Sorkin’s writing on audience members and the political world at large? What is lost when a simplistic narrative structure is followed? Who is left out and what is overlooked? The literature that informs the answers to these questions will cross over and through several academic disciplines: American Studies, British Cultural Studies, Communication, Folklore, Journalism, Literature, Media Studies, Popular Culture, and Social Psychology. The chapters will also explore scholarship on the subjects of narratology and schema theory.

Using a Combination of Phylogenetic Comparative and Paleobotanical Methods to Elucidate Patterns of Lineage Selection in Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta)

An increasing focus in evolutionary biology is on the interplay between mesoscale ecological and evolutionary processes such as population demographics, habitat tolerance, and especially geographic distribution, as potential drivers responsible for patterns of diversification and extinction over geologic time. However, few studies to date connect organismal processes such as survival and reproduction through mesoscale patterns to long-term macroevolutionary trends. In my dissertation, I investigate how mechanism of seed dispersal, mediated through geographic range size, influences diversification rates in the Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta). In my first chapter, I validate the phylogenetic comparative methods that I use in my second and third chapters. Available state speciation and extinction (SSE) models assumptions about evolution known to be false through fossil data. I show, however, that as long as net diversification rates remain positive – a condition likely true for the Rosales – these violations of SSE’s assumptions do not cause significantly biased results. With SSE methods validated, my second chapter reconstructs three associations that appear to increase diversification rate for Rosalean genera: (1) herbaceous habit; (2) a three-way interaction combining animal dispersal, high within-genus species richness, and geographic range on multiple continents; (3) a four-way interaction combining woody habit with the other three characteristics of (2). I suggest that the three- and four-way interactions represent colonization ability and resulting extinction resistance in the face of late Cenozoic climate change; however, there are other possibilities as well that I hope to investigate in future research. My third chapter reconstructs the phylogeographic history of the Rosales using both non-fossil-assisted SSE methods as well as fossil-informed traditional phylogeographic analysis. Ancestral state reconstructions indicate that the Rosaceae diversified in North America while the other Rosalean families diversified elsewhere, possibly in Eurasia. SSE is able to successfully identify groups of genera that were likely to have been ancestrally widespread, but has poorer taxonomic resolution than methods that use fossil data. In conclusion, these chapters together suggest several potential causal links between organismal, mesoscale, and geologic scale processes, but further work will be needed to test the hypotheses that I raise here.