Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

Interactive Effects of Plant Species and Organic Carbon on Nitrate Removal in Chesapeake Bay Treatment Wetlands

Nitrate from agricultural runoff are a significant cause of algal blooms in estuarine ecosystems such as the Chesapeake Bay. These blooms block sunlight vital to submerged aquatic vegetation, leading to hypoxic areas. Natural and constructed wetlands have been shown to reduce the amount of nitrate flowing into adjacent bodies of water. We tested three wetland plant species native to Maryland, Typha latifolia (cattail), Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and Schoenoplectus validus (soft-stem bulrush), in wetland microcosms to determine the effect of species combination and organic amendment on nitrate removal. In the first phase of our study, we found that microcosms containing sawdust exhibited significantly greater nitrate removal than microcosms amended with glucose or hay at a low nitrate loading rate. In the second phase of our study, we confirmed that combining these plants removed nitrate, although no one combination was significantly better. Furthermore, the above-ground biomass of microcosms containing switchgrass had a significantly greater percentage of carbon than microcosms without switchgrass, which can be studied for potential biofuel use. Based on our data, future environmental groups can make a more informed decision when choosing biofuel-capable plant species for artificial wetlands native to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.