IANR's Contributions to Nebraska's Future

One in four Nebraskans depends upon agriculture for employment. That fact, found in the 2001 Nebraska Agriculture Fact Card, a cooperative effort of the Nebraska Bankers Association, the Nebraska AgRelations Council, and the Nebraska Department of Agriculture, underscores the importance of agriculture to Nebraska, and the importance of the work conducted in the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

Predicting Problematic Approach Behavior Toward Politicians: Exploring the Potential Contributions of Control Theory

The potential merits of Carver and Scheier's (1981) control theory in the prediction of targeted violence are reviewed and several novel indicators of risk that are consistent with this theory are suggested for study. It was hypothesized that: (a) similarity between inappropriate contact with politicians and extremist group literature and writings; (b) the temporal proximity to violent or otherwise criminal actions and notable anniversaries of such groups; (c) detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior, and; (d) self-focus, will be significant predictors of problematic approach behavior. A sample of 506 individuals who engaged in threatening or otherwise inappropriate contact toward members of the United States Congress was drawn from the case files of the United States Capitol Police. Results of the present research indicated that detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior was strongly predictive of actually engaging in problematic approach. Furthermore, high self-focus was significantly related to problematic approach between-persons, although within-person, higher-than-average self-focus showed no such relation. Neither temporal proximity to notable acts of extremist violence nor similarity to known extremist group writings was found to be associated with problematic approach in this sample.

Contributions of demography and dispersal parameters to the spatial spread of a stage-structured insect invasion

Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.