Estimating the number of whales entering trade using DNA profiling and capture-recapture analysis of market products

Surveys of commercial markets combined with molecular taxonomy (i.e. molecular monitoring) provide a means to detect products from illegal, unregulated and/or unreported (IUU) exploitation, including the sale of fisheries bycatch and wild meat (bushmeat). Capture-recapture analyses of market products using DNA profiling have the potential to estimate the total number of individuals entering the market. However, these analyses are not directly analogous to those of living individuals because a ‘market individual’ does not die suddenly but, instead, remains available for a time in decreasing quantities, rather like the exponential decay of a radioactive isotope. Here we use mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and microsatellite genotypes to individually identify products from North Pacific minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata ssp.) purchased in 12 surveys of markets in the Republic of (South) Korea from 1999 to 2003. By applying a novel capture-recapture model with a decay rate parameter to the 205 unique DNA profiles found among 289 products, we estimated that the total number of whales entering trade across the five-year survey period was 827 (SE, 164; CV, 0.20) and that the average ‘half-life’ of products from an individual whale on the market was 1.82 months (SE, 0.24; CV, 0.13). Our estimate of whales in trade (reflecting the true numbers killed) was significantly greater than the officially reported bycatch of 458 whales for this period. This unregulated exploitation has serious implications for the survival of this genetically distinct coastal population. Although our capture-recapture model was developed for specific application to the Korean whale-meat markets, the exponential decay function could be modified to improve the estimates of trade in other wildmeat or fisheries markets or abundance of living populations by noninvasive genotyping.

The Specific Status of the Narrow-Skulled Vole (Subgenus Stenocranius Kashchenko) in North America

On morphological and zoogeographical grounds, discussed in the present paper, it is concluded that the narrow-skulled vole in North America, previously designated Microtus (Stenocranius) miurus Osgood, is conspecific with the Eurasian M. (Stenocranius) gregalis Pallas. Fourteen subspecies in Eurasia and 5 in North America are now recognized, but it is probable that the number in Eurasia will be reduced through future investigation. The Eurasian subspecies of this vole comprise two major groups, of which one occupies the tundra zone and the other occurs across central Asia below latitude 60° N; their geographic ranges are largely separate but evidently become confluent in northeastern Siberia. The members of the northern group of Eurasian subspecies and the North American forms are closely related; the present distribution of the latter indicates post-glacial dispersal from the Amphiberingian Refugium. It is believed that the tundra-inhabiting voles in Eurasia likewise survived the Pleistocene glaciations in northern refugia, while the members of the southern group of subspecies probably represent populations that survived south of the limits of the continental glaciers. The ranges of the two Eurasian groups probably have become confluent during post-glacial time in northeastern Siberia as a result of the southward spread of the northern forms. At least, the subspecies having the intervening range closely resembles members of the northern group. Some of the ecological and ethological characteristics of these voles are briefly discussed. The chromosome number of one of the North American subspecies of narrow-skulled vole was determined to be 54; this is the first time that the chromosomes of a member of the subgenus Stenocranius have been investigated. A karyogram has been included. German abstract: Auf morphologischen und tiergeographischen Grundlagen, die in dieser Arbeit besprochen wurden, ist festgestellt worden, daß die schmalschädlige Wiihlmaus in Nordamerika, friiher Microtus (Stenocranius) miurus Osgood bezeichnet, mit der palaearktischen Art M. (Stenocranius) gregalis Pallas identisch ist. Zur Zeit gelten 14 Unterarten in Eurasien und 5 in Nordamerika als unterscheidbar; vermutlich aber wird die Zahl der palaearktischen Unterarten durch eingehendere Untersuchungen künftig vermindert werden. Auf Grund ihrer Verbreitung bilden die palaearktischen Unterarten zwei beinahe vollständig getrennte Gruppen. Die Wühlmäuse der nördlichen Gruppe bewohnen die Tundrazone, während die Vertreter der zweiten Gruppe über Mittelasien südlicher als 60° N.B. verbreitet sind. Die Verbreitungsgebiete der zwei Gruppen verbinden sich anscheinend. Die nordamerikanischen schmalschädligen Wühlmäuse sind mit den in der Tundrazone vorkommenden palaearktischen Formen nahe verwandt; sie haben sich wahrscheinlich während der Postglazialzeit aus dem Amphiberingschen Refugium verbreitet. Möglicherweise überlebten die tundrabewohnenden Wühlmäuse Eurasiens die Eiszeit ebenfalls in vereinzelten Refugien in Nordostsibirien, während die Formen der südlichen Gruppe sie jenseits der Grenzen des Festlandsgletschers überlebten. Wahrscheinlich wurden die zwei Verbreitungsgebiete dieser Art in Eurasien erst während der Postglazialzeit durch das Vordringen der nordischen Formen verbunden, da eine nähere Verwandtschaft zwischen den nördlichen und der dazwischenliegenden Unterart besteht. Einige ökologische und ethologische Eigentümlichkeiten dieser Wühlmäuse werden kurz besprochen. Es wurde festgestellt, daß eine der nordamerikanischen Unterarten der schmalschädligen Wühlmaus 54 Chromosomen hat; sie ist der einzige Vertreter der Untergattung Stenocranius, dessen Chromosomen untersucht worden sind.