The Duration of the Effects of Repeated Widespread Badger Culling on Cattle Tuberculosis Following the Cessation of Culling

Background: In the British Isles, control of cattle tuberculosis (TB) is hindered by persistent infection of wild badger (Meles meles) populations. A large-scale field trial—the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT)—previously showed that widespread badger culling produced modest reductions in cattle TB incidence during culling, which were offset by elevated TB risks for cattle on adjoining lands. Once culling was halted, beneficial effects inside culling areas increased, while detrimental effects on adjoining lands disappeared. However, a full assessment of the utility of badger culling requires information on the duration of culling effects. Methodology/Principal Findings: We monitored cattle TB incidence in and around RBCT areas after culling ended. We found that benefits inside culled areas declined over time, and were no longer detectable by three years post-culling. On adjoining lands, a trend suggesting beneficial effects immediately after the end of culling was insignificant, and disappeared after 18 months post-culling. From completion of the first cull to the loss of detectable effects (an average five-year culling period plus 2.5 years post-culling), cattle TB incidence was 28.7% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.7 to 35.8% lower) inside ten 100 km2 culled areas than inside ten matched no-culling areas, and comparable (11.7% higher, 95% CI: 13.0% lower to 43.4% higher, p = 0.39) on lands #2 km outside culled and no-culling areas. The financial costs of culling an idealized 150 km2 area would exceed the savings achieved through reduced cattle TB, by factors of 2 to 3.5. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings show that the reductions in cattle TB incidence achieved by repeated badger culling were not sustained in the long term after culling ended and did not offset the financial costs of culling. These results, combined with evaluation of alternative culling methods, suggest that badger culling is unlikely to contribute effectively to the control of cattle TB in Britain.

A load-balancing spare capacity reallocation approach in service-rich SONET metro mesh networks

The next-generation SONET metro network is evolving into a service-rich infrastructure. At the edge of such a network, multi-service provisioning platforms (MSPPs) provide efficient data mapping enabled by Generic Framing Procedure (GFP) and Virtual Concatenation (VC). The core of the network tends to be a meshed architecture equipped with Multi-Service Switches (MSSs). In the context of these emerging technologies, we propose a load-balancing spare capacity reallocation approach to improve network utilization in the next-generation SONET metro networks. Using our approach, carriers can postpone network upgrades, resulting in increased revenue with reduced capital expenditures (CAPEX). For the first time, we consider the spare capacity reallocation problem from a capacity upgrade and network planning perspective. Our approach can operate in the context of shared-path protection (with backup multiplexing) because it reallocates spare capacity without disrupting working services. Unlike previous spare capacity reallocation approaches which aim at minimizing total spare capacity, our load-balancing approach minimizes the network load vector (NLV), which is a novel metric that reflects the network load distribution. Because NLV takes into consideration both uniform and non-uniform link capacity distribution, our approach can benefit both uniform and non-uniform networks. We develop a greedy loadbalancing spare capacity reallocation (GLB-SCR) heuristic algorithm to implement this approach. Our experimental results show that GLB-SCR outperforms a previously proposed algorithm (SSR) in terms of established connection capacity and total network capacity in both uniform and non-uniform networks.

A Load-Balancing Shared-Protection-Path Reconfiguration Approach in WDM Wavelength-Routed Networks

Wavelength-routed networks (WRN) are very promising candidates for next-generation Internet and telecommunication backbones. In such a network, optical-layer protection is of paramount importance due to the risk of losing large amounts of data under a failure. To protect the network against this risk, service providers usually provide a pair of risk-independent working and protection paths for each optical connection. However, the investment made for the optical-layer protection increases network cost. To reduce the capital expenditure, service providers need to efficiently utilize their network resources. Among all the existing approaches, shared-path protection has proven to be practical and cost-efficient [1]. In shared-path protection, several protection paths can share a wavelength on a fiber link if their working paths are risk-independent. In real-world networks, provisioning is usually implemented without the knowledge of future network resource utilization status. As the network changes with the addition and deletion of connections, the network utilization will become sub-optimal. Reconfiguration, which is referred to as the method of re-provisioning the existing connections, is an attractive solution to fill in the gap between the current network utilization and its optimal value [2]. In this paper, we propose a new shared-protection-path reconfiguration approach. Unlike some of previous reconfiguration approaches that alter the working paths, our approach only changes protection paths, and hence does not interfere with the ongoing services on the working paths, and is therefore risk-free. Previous studies have verified the benefits arising from the reconfiguration of existing connections [2] [3] [4]. Most of them are aimed at minimizing the total used wavelength-links or ports. However, this objective does not directly relate to cost saving because minimizing the total network resource consumption does not necessarily maximize the capability of accommodating future connections. As a result, service providers may still need to pay for early network upgrades. Alternatively, our proposed shared-protection-path reconfiguration approach is based on a load-balancing objective, which minimizes the network load distribution vector (LDV, see Section 2). This new objective is designed to postpone network upgrades, thus bringing extra cost savings to service providers. In other words, by using the new objective, service providers can establish as many connections as possible before network upgrades, resulting in increased revenue. We develop a heuristic load-balancing (LB) reconfiguration approach based on this new objective and compare its performance with an approach previously introduced in [2] and [4], whose objective is minimizing the total network resource consumption.