A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

A macroscopic kinetic model for DNA polymerase elongation and high-fidelity nucleotide election

The enzymatically catalyzed template-directed extension of ssDNA/primer complex is an impor-tant reaction of extraordinary complexity. The DNA polymerase does not merely facilitate the insertion of dNMP, but it also performs rapid screening of substrates to ensure a high degree of fidelity. Several kinetic studies have determined rate constants and equilibrium constants for the elementary steps that make up the overall pathway. The information is used to develop a macro-scopic kinetic model, using an approach described by Ninio [Ninio J., 1987. Alternative to the steady-state method: derivation of reaction rates from first-passage times and pathway probabili-ties. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 84, 663–667]. The principle idea of the Ninio approach is to track a single template/primer complex over time and to identify the expected behavior. The average time to insert a single nucleotide is a weighted sum of several terms, in-cluding the actual time to insert a nucleotide plus delays due to polymerase detachment from ei-ther the ternary (template-primer-polymerase) or quaternary (+nucleotide) complexes and time delays associated with the identification and ultimate rejection of an incorrect nucleotide from the binding site. The passage times of all events and their probability of occurrence are ex-pressed in terms of the rate constants of the elementary steps of the reaction pathway. The model accounts for variations in the average insertion time with different nucleotides as well as the in-fluence of G+C content of the sequence in the vicinity of the insertion site. Furthermore the model provides estimates of error frequencies. If nucleotide extension is recognized as a compe-tition between successful insertions and time delaying events, it can be described as a binomial process with a probability distribution. The distribution gives the probability to extend a primer/template complex with a certain number of base pairs and in general it maps annealed complexes into extension products.

Landscape Genetics of Raccoons (Procyon lotor) Associated with Ridges and Valleys of Pennsylvania: Implications for Oral Rabies Vaccination Programs

Raccoons are the reservoir for the raccoon rabies virus variant in the United States. To combat this threat, oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programs are conducted in many eastern states. To aid in these efforts, the genetic structure of raccoons (Procyon lotor) was assessed in southwestern Pennsylvania to determine if select geographic features (i.e., ridges and valleys) serve as corridors or hindrances to raccoon gene flow (e.g., movement) and, therefore, rabies virus trafficking in this physiographic region. Raccoon DNA samples (n = 185) were collected from one ridge site and two adjacent valleys in southwestern Pennsylvania (Westmoreland, Cambria, Fayette, and Somerset counties). Raccoon genetic structure within and among these study sites was characterized at nine microsatellite loci. Results indicated that there was little population subdivision among any sites sampled. Furthermore, analyses using a model-based clustering approach indicated one essentially panmictic population was present among all the raccoons sampled over a reasonably broad geographic area (e.g., sites up to 36 km apart). However, a signature of isolation by distance was detected, suggesting that widths of ORV zones are critical for success. Combined, these data indicate that geographic features within this landscape influence raccoon gene flow only to a limited extent, suggesting that ridges of this physiographic system will not provide substantial long-term natural barriers to rabies virus trafficking. These results may be of value for future ORV efforts in Pennsylvania and other eastern states with similar landscapes.

Predicting Problematic Approach Behavior Toward Politicians: Exploring the Potential Contributions of Control Theory

The potential merits of Carver and Scheier's (1981) control theory in the prediction of targeted violence are reviewed and several novel indicators of risk that are consistent with this theory are suggested for study. It was hypothesized that: (a) similarity between inappropriate contact with politicians and extremist group literature and writings; (b) the temporal proximity to violent or otherwise criminal actions and notable anniversaries of such groups; (c) detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior, and; (d) self-focus, will be significant predictors of problematic approach behavior. A sample of 506 individuals who engaged in threatening or otherwise inappropriate contact toward members of the United States Congress was drawn from the case files of the United States Capitol Police. Results of the present research indicated that detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior was strongly predictive of actually engaging in problematic approach. Furthermore, high self-focus was significantly related to problematic approach between-persons, although within-person, higher-than-average self-focus showed no such relation. Neither temporal proximity to notable acts of extremist violence nor similarity to known extremist group writings was found to be associated with problematic approach in this sample.