Modeling Age-Specific Mortality For Marine Mammal Populations

A method is presented for estimating age-specific mortality based on minimal information: a model life table and an estimate of longevity. This approach uses expected patterns of mammalian survivorship to define a general model of age-specific mortality rates. One such model life table is based on data for northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) using Siler’s (1979) 5-parameter competing risk model. Alternative model life tables are based on historical data for human females and on a published model for Old World monkeys. Survival rates for a marine mammal species are then calculated by scaling these models by the longevity of that species. By using a realistic model (instead of assuming constant mortality), one can see more easily the real biological limits to population growth. The mortality estimation procedure is illustrated with examples of spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata) and harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena).

Distribution of Dioecious Eastern Red Cedar (Juniperus virginiana) along an Environmental Gradient in Ogallala, NE.

Abstract The purpose of this research was to study the sex distribution and energy allocation of dioecious Eastern Red Cedars (Juniperus virginiana) along an environmental resource gradient. The trees surveyed were growing in a canyon located at the University of Nebraska’s Cedar Point Biological Research Station in Ogallala, Nebraska. Due to the geography of this canyon, environmental factors necessary for plant growth should vary depending on the tree’s location within the canyon. These factors include water availability, sun exposure, ground slope, and soil nitrogen content, all of which are necessary for carbon acquisition. Juniperus virginiana is a dioecious conifer. Dioecious plants maintain male and female reproductive structures on separate individuals. Therefore, proximal spatial location is essential for pollination and successful reproduction. Typically female reproductive structures are more costly and require a greater investment of carbon and nitrogen. For this reason, growth, survival and successful reproduction are more likely to be limited by environmental resources for females than for male individuals. If this is true for Juniperus virginiana, females should be located in more nutrient and water rich areas than males. This also assumes that females can not be reproductively successful in areas of poor environmental quality. Therefore, reproductive males should be more likely to inhabit environments with relatively lower resource availability than females. Whether the environment affects sexual determination or just limits survival of different sexes is still relatively unknown. In order to view distribution trends along the environmental gradient, the position of the tree in the canyon transect was compared to its sex. Any trend in sex should correspond with varying environmental factors in the canyon, ie: sunlight availability, aspect, and ground slope. The individuals’ allocation to growth and reproduction was quantified first by comparing trunk diameter at six inches above ground to sex and location of the tree. The feature of energy allocation was further substantiated by comparing carbon and nitrogen content in tree leaf tissue and soil to location and sex of each individual. Carbon and nitrogen in soil indicate essential nutrient availability to the individual, while C and N in leaf tissue indicate nutrient limitation experienced by the tree. At the conclusion of this experiment, there is modest support that survival and fecundity of females demands environments relatively richer in nutrients, than needed by males to survive and be reproductively active. Side of the canyon appeared to have an influence on diameter of trees, frequency of sex and carbon and nitrogen leaf content. While this information indicated possible trends in the relation of sex to nutrient availability, most of the environmental variables presumed responsible for the sex distribution bias differed minutely and may not have been biologically significant to tree growth.

Health and Growth: Causality through Education

Purpose--The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach--The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their life, namely, young, adult and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stage, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health on educational investments and growth. We address potential endogeneity by using various strategies, such as controlling for country specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/AIDS prevalence. Findings--We show theoretically that an increased probability of premature death leads to less investment in human capital, and consequently slower growth. Empirically we show that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries and these falling life expectancies are indeed associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth world wide. Originality/value--The theoretical and empirical findings reveal a causal link flowing from health to growth, which has been largely overlooked by the existing literature. The main implication is that health investments, that decrease the incidence of diseases like HIV/AIDS resulting on increases in life expectancy, through its complementarity with human capital investments lead to long run growth..