Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut

We estimated demographic parameters and harvest risks for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut, from 1976 to 2000. We computed survival and abundance from capture–recapture and recovery data (630 marks) using a Burnham joint live–dead model implemented in program MARK. Annual mean total survival (including harvest) was 0.889 ± 0.179 ( x ± 1 SE) for cubs, 0.883 ± 0.087 for subadults (ages 1–4), 0.919 ± 0.044 for adult females, and 0.917 ± 0.041 for adult males. Abundance in the last 3 yr of study was 1,592 ± 361 bears. Mean size of newborn litters was 1.648 ± 0.098 cubs. By age 7, 0.97 ± 0.30 of available females were producing litters. Harvest averaged 38.4 ± 4.2 bears/year in the last 5 yr of study; however, the 2002–2007 kill averaged 56.4 bears/yr. We used a harvested Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to examine impacts of increasing rates of harvest. We estimated the current population growth rate, λH, to be 1.025 ± 0.032. Although this suggests the population is growing, progressive environmental changes may require more frequent population inventory studies to maintain the same levels of harvest risk.

Chloroacetamid Spray Drift and Leaf Tatters in Hackberry

During the last decade, leaf tatters has been reported in white oak and hackberry across several Midwestern states. Herbicide spray drift studies have shown that chloroacetamides can induce leaf tatters. The objectives of this research were to: 1) identify vulnerable bud developmental stages in hackberry and 2) determine if different commercial chloroacetamides affect severity of leaf tatters. In 2008, a preliminary spray drift experiment was conducted on mature trees from a former hackberry provenance test stand. Acetochlor (Harness), S-metolachlor (Dual II Magnum), and dimethenamid (Outlook) were applied at concentrations approximating 27%, 54%, 81%, or 108% of the recommended field rate. Three developmental stages before bud burst were present on the selected trees. Leaf tatters did not develop on the selected hackberry trees. However, symptoms were observed on neighboring, non-target hackberry trees, which had been in the leaf unfolding and expanding stages at the time of spraying. In 2009, three year old hackberry seedlings were treated with 1%, 10%, and 100% of the recommended field rate of acetochlor (Harness), S-metolachlor (Dual II Magnum), and dimethenamid (Outlook). Folded buds and two unfolding leaf developmental stages were present on seedlings. Another spray study was conducted on 32 mature hackberry trees from the provenance stand. A solution of 5608 mg a.i./L dimethenamid (Outlook) was applied to trees in the unfolding and/or expanding leaf stage. Treated trees represented four provenances. Image analysis was used to calculate seedling and mature tree leaf areas and estimate the seedling percentage of leaf tissue loss. Foliar damage was not significantly different between seedlings treated with water, 1%, or 10% of the field rate. Foliar damage was significantly different between seedlings treated with 1% or 100% of the field rate, and between seedlings treated with 10% or 100% of the field rate. Foliar damage in seedlings was not significantly different between the developmental stages. Additionally, symptoms of leaf tatters were observed on the treated mature hackberry. Future studies should focus on chloroacetamide concentrations above 10% of the recommended field rate.

Contributions of demography and dispersal parameters to the spatial spread of a stage-structured insect invasion

Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.