Risk-based Modeling to Develop Zoning Criteria for Land-use Near Canadian Airports

Land development in the vicinity of airports often leads to land-use that can attract birds that are hazardous to aviation operations. For this reason, certain forms of land-use have traditionally been discouraged within prescribed distances of Canadian airports. However, this often leads to an unrealistic prohibition of land-use in the vicinity of airports located in urban settings. Furthermore, it is often unclear that the desired safety goals have been achieved. This paper describes a model that was created to assist in the development of zoning regulations for a future airport site in Canada. The framework links land-use to bird-related safety-risks and aircraft operations by categorizing the predictable relationships between: (i) different land uses found in urbanized and urbanizing settings near airports; (ii) bird species; and (iii) the different safety-risks to aircraft during various phases of flight. The latter is assessed relative to the runway approach and departure paths. Bird species are ranked to reflect the potential severity of an impact with an aircraft (using bird weight, flocking characteristics, and flight behaviours). These criteria are then employed to chart bird-related safety-risks relative to runway reference points. Each form of land-use is categorized to reflect the degree to which it attracts hazardous bird species. From this information, hazard and risk matrices have been developed and applied to the future airport setting, thereby providing risk-based guidance on appropriate land-uses that range from prohibited to acceptable. The framework has subsequently been applied to an existing Canadian airport, and is currently being adapted for national application. The framework provides a risk-based and science-based approach that offers municipalities and property owner’s flexibility in managing the risks to aviation related to their land use.

Water Rights and Land Values in the West-Central Plains

Irrigation is vital to the economic activity of the west-central Great Plains. The crops grown, the distribution of center-pivot irrigation systems, and the basic transportation infrastructure is the same in northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. But buyers of agricultural land face a different price for irrigated cropland in each of the states, even when the production characteristics of the land are similar. After accounting for factors like productivity and local property tax differences, we argue that it is the difference in water marketing rights between the three states that explains the price difference. The link between land values and water marketing rights is statistically developed by using Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) regression techniques. After adjusting for differences in property taxes, the analysis reveals that the implicit value of full water-marketing rights in the region is approximately $1,026 per acre. This valuation is within the range of estimates provided by other comparable studies across the country.