Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF FOLDED PLATE GIRDERS AND SLAB JOINTS USED IN MODULAR CONSTRUCTION

The folded plate girder, a newly proposed bridge girder, is investigated through this thesis. The folded plate girder is cold bent out of a single sheet of steel. The cold bending eliminates the costly and inconsistent shop welds found in traditional girders. The folded plate girder is meant for application in short span bridges. The girder was subjected to an equivalent 75 year lifetime loading to investigate the fatigue performance. The rebar detail used in the closure region between adjacent slabs has been investigated in the past by the NCHRP 12-68 project. This thesis will proposes a hooked rebar detail as a cost effective alternative to the previously recommended headed rebar detail. The proposed hooked rebar detail looks to improve upon the headed bar detail by increasing the clear cover, and reducing the cost of fabrication and shipment of the rebar. Six specimens containing closure regions are subjected to both positive and negative moment loading in order to investigate their behavior and failure modes under ultimate load.

Constructability Testing of Folded Plate Girders

A new steel girder bridge system was developed at the University of Nebraska. The innovative girder design is a box girder folded from a single steel plate that has a trapezoid shape with an opening on the bottom. The girder has application in short span bridges and accelerated construction situations. The structural performance of the girder requires investigation in all stages of a bridge’s lifecycle. This thesis contains descriptions and results from the first two tests from a series of tests developed to evaluate this new girder shape. The objective of these two tests was to investigate the constructability of the girders. During construction a bridge is in its least stable condition and it is important that the bridge components exhibit both adequate strength and stability during this critical stage. To this end, two girders were tested in flexure over a simple span as a non-composite beam simulating the loading the girders would be subjected to during construction. The results of the two tests indicate that the folded girder as a whole, and its components, provide adequate strength and stability at construction load levels. Failure occurred at loads that were above normal construction load levels and resulted in a ductile failure mode, which is a well documented benefit of steel components. The girders remained stable through all phases of loading including failure. The top flange was the weakest component of the beam during construction due to its role as a compression element that has a slender and un-braced form. The compression in the top flange caused local buckling in the top flange even at elastic load levels. This was the cause for loss of stiffness and failure in both specimens. Incorporation of a ridge at the center of the top flange of specimens, results of which are not reported in this thesis, proved to resolve this very early buckling issue.