Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Studies on the Helminth Fauna of Alaska. XXV. The Ecology and Public Health Significance of Echinococcus sibiricensis Rausch & Schiller, 1954, on St. Lawrence Island

The occurrence of a species of Echinococcus (Rudolphi, 1801) on St Lawrence Island was noted by the writers in early 1950. Recognition of its unusual host relationships led to an investigation of the ecology of this cestode, E. sibiricensis Rausch & Schiller, 1954. It is the purpose of this paper to report the results of this work, with emphasis on alveolar hydatid disease in man, of which this cestode is the etiologic agent.

On the Ecology and Distribution of Echinococcus spp. (Cestoda: Taeniidae), and Characteristics of Their Development in the Intermediate Host. II. Comparative Studies on the Development of Larval E. multilocularis Leuckart, 1863, in the Intermediate Host

This paper reports the results of a comparative study of the development of the larval Echinococcus multilocularis Leuckart, 1863), and associated tissue reaction in naturally and experimentally infected mammals representing 31 species. The histogenesis of the larval cestode was traced in detail in arvicoline rodents of several species, and interspecific differences were defined. In arvicoline rodents, the developing larva exhibited host-specific characteristics within about a month after infection was established. The tissue reaction in Microtus oeconomus was characterized by the production of a large quantity of detritus around the larva, and by the formation of a thick epithelioid zone. In one subspecies, M. oeconomus innuitus, development of the larva was retarded, and the detrital mass was often calcified; in another, M. oeconomus operarius, the detritus rarely became calcified and the larva proliferated more rapidly. In M. pennsylvanicus, the tissue reaction was minimal, and little detritus was present. The characteristics of the tissue reaction in M. montebelli placed it in an intermediate position between the aforementioned species. In Clethrionomys rutilus, a thin epithelioid zone and an outer zone of loose collagenous fibers composed the adventitial layer; exogenous budding was retarded in this vole. A minimal tissue reaction occurred in Lagurus curtatus. In Lemmus spp., larger cysts were characteristic, but areas of small-cystic proliferation were always present. Similar differences in species or subspecies of Citellus and Dicrostonyx were described. Lesions of alveolar bydatid disease in man also were studied. The invasive growth of the larval cestode in the human liver involves a process comparable to small-cystic proliferation in the natural intermediate hosts. Although the later stages of development of the larval cestode are inhibited in man, exogenous proliferation of vesicles continues for the life of the host. The lesion in man was compared with a morphologically similar formation produced by anomalous development of the larval E. granulosus in the bovine liver. The latter is distinguished by the absence of areas of small-cystic proliferation. Non-echinococcal lesions found in the tissues studied, some of which resembled foci caused by the larval E. multilocularis, were briefly discussed.

Scraping Behavior in Male White-tailed Deer as a Potential Means of Transmitting Chronic Wasting Disease

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has become a concern for wildlife managers and hunters across the United States. High prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in older male white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) suggests that sex-specific social behavior may contribute to the spread of the disease among males. Scraping is a marking behavior performed by male white-tailed deer during the rut in which a pawed depression and associated over-hanging branch are marked with saliva, glandular secretions, urine, and feces. We placed 71 and 35 motion-activated cameras on scrapes in DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge in western Nebraska and eastern Iowa from Oct. – Nov. 2005 and Sept. – Nov. 2006, respectively. We recorded 5009 encounters and 1830 direct interactions. We developed an ethogram of behaviors of interest at scrapes. We found that males interacted with scrapes more frequently than females (P < 0.001). Male interactions were more complex, with 69% consisting of ≥2 observed behaviors versus 25% and 13% for females and fawns. We identified individual male deer ≥2.5 years old and determined the minimum number of different scrapes individuals visited and the number of individuals that visit a single scrape. Individuals that appeared on camera ≥5 times visited a mean of 3.9 scrapes (range = 1-15) and traveled a mean minimum distance of 978 m between consecutive scrapes. A mean of 5.1 individuals visited a single scrape, and up to 43% of individuals returned to a scrape previously visited at least once. We modeled Risk Values based on frequency of occurrence, duration, and Threat Values of each behavior, for contacting and transmitting CWD prions at scrapes. Adult males had the highest total Risk Values for contacting CWD prions (114.1) and shedding prions (59.4). The “grasp-lick branch” behavior had the highest Risk Value for adult males for both contacting and transmitting prions. Our study reveals a sex specific social behavior in male white-tailed deer that has the potential to spread chronic wasting disease between adult males in the population.