Observations on a Cyclic Decline of Lemmings (Lemmus) on the Arctic Coast of Alaska during the Spring of 1949

The importance to the biotic community of various species of lemmings in arctic and subarctic regions has long been recognized, but there is little known about the ecology of these mammals. of the two species that occur on the Arctic Slope of Alaska, namely, the collared lemming, Dicrostonyx groenlandicus rubricatus (Richardson), and the brown lemming, Lemmus trimucronatus alascensis Merriam, during the spring of 1949 the writer had the good fortune to observe a cyclic decline in the population of the brown lemming on the Arctic Coast of Alaska. Observations were made during the peak density preceding this decline and were continued for more than a year subsequent to it. It is the purpose of this paper to present the results of these studies.

Evaluating Measurement Invariance with Censored Ordinal Data: A Monte Carlo Comparison of Alternative Model Estimators and Scales of Measurement

Evaluations of measurement invariance provide essential construct validity evidence. However, the quality of such evidence is partly dependent upon the validity of the resulting statistical conclusions. The presence of Type I or Type II errors can render measurement invariance conclusions meaningless. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of categorization and censoring on the behavior of the chi-square/likelihood ratio test statistic and two alternative fit indices (CFI and RMSEA) under the context of evaluating measurement invariance. Monte Carlo simulation was used to examine Type I error and power rates for the (a) overall test statistic/fit indices, and (b) change in test statistic/fit indices. Data were generated according to a multiple-group single-factor CFA model across 40 conditions that varied by sample size, strength of item factor loadings, and categorization thresholds. Seven different combinations of model estimators (ML, Yuan-Bentler scaled ML, and WLSMV) and specified measurement scales (continuous, censored, and categorical) were used to analyze each of the simulation conditions. As hypothesized, non-normality increased Type I error rates for the continuous scale of measurement and did not affect error rates for the categorical scale of measurement. Maximum likelihood estimation combined with a categorical scale of measurement resulted in more correct statistical conclusions than the other analysis combinations. For the continuous and censored scales of measurement, the Yuan-Bentler scaled ML resulted in more correct conclusions than normal-theory ML. The censored measurement scale did not offer any advantages over the continuous measurement scale. Comparing across fit statistics and indices, the chi-square-based test statistics were preferred over the alternative fit indices, and ΔRMSEA was preferred over ΔCFI. Results from this study should be used to inform the modeling decisions of applied researchers. However, no single analysis combination can be recommended for all situations. Therefore, it is essential that researchers consider the context and purpose of their analyses.

Multidecadal Drought and Holocene Climate Instability in the Rocky Mountains

Time series analysis of a diatom-inferred drought record suggests that Holocene hydroclimate of the northern Rocky Mountains has been characterized by oscillation between two mean climate states. The dominant climate state was initiated at the onset of the Holocene (ca. 11 ka); under this climate state, drought was strongly cyclic, recurring at frequencies that are similar to twentieth century multidecadal phase changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern remained consistent throughout much of the mid- Holocene, continuing until ca. 4.5 ka. After this time the mean climate state changed, and drought recurrence became unstable; periods of cyclic drought alternated with periods of less predictable drought. The timing of this shift in climate was coincident with widespread severe drought in the mid-continent of North America. Overall, the strongest periodicity in severe drought occurred during the mid-Holocene, when temperatures in the northern Rocky Mountains were warmer than today.