Model complexity affects transient population dynamics following a dispersal event: A case study with pea aphids

Stage-structured population models predict transient population dynamics if the population deviates from the stable stage distribution. Ecologists’ interest in transient dynamics is growing because populations regularly deviate from the stable stage distribution, which can lead to transient dynamics that differ significantly from the stable stage dynamics. Because the structure of a population matrix (i.e., the number of life-history stages) can influence the predicted scale of the deviation, we explored the effect of matrix size on predicted transient dynamics and the resulting amplification of population size. First, we experimentally measured the transition rates between the different life-history stages and the adult fecundity and survival of the aphid, Acythosiphon pisum. Second, we used these data to parameterize models with different numbers of stages. Third, we compared model predictions with empirically measured transient population growth following the introduction of a single adult aphid. We find that the models with the largest number of life-history stages predicted the largest transient population growth rates, but in all models there was a considerable discrepancy between predicted and empirically measured transient peaks and a dramatic underestimation of final population sizes. For instance, the mean population size after 20 days was 2394 aphids compared to the highest predicted population size of 531 aphids; the predicted asymptotic growth rate (λmax) was consistent with the experiments. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed. Includes 4 supplemental files.

Selective Foraging For Anthropogenic Resources By Black Bears: Minivans In Yosemite National Park

Black bears (Ursus americanus) forage selectively in natural environments. To determine if bears also forage selectively for anthropogenic resources we analyzed data on vehicles broken into by bears from Yosemite National Park, California. We classified vehicles into 9 categories based on their make and model and collected data on use (2001–2007) and availability (2004–2005). From 2001 to 2007 bears broke into 908 vehicles at the following rates: minivan (26.0%), sport–utility vehicle (22.5%), small car (17.1%), sedan (13.7%), truck (11.9%), van (4.2%), sports car (1.7%), coupe (1.7%), and station wagon (1.4%). Only use of minivans (29%) during 2004–2005 was significantly higher than expected (7%). We discuss several competing hypotheses about why bears selected minivans.

United Way and University partnerships in community-wide human services planning and plan implementation: The case of Lincoln/Lancaster County, Nebraska.

Given the similar interests of United Way organizations and universities in planning, implementation, and evaluation of human services, the two social institutions could be extensively and effectively partnering with one another. However, there is little documentation that such cooperative efforts are taking place. This article describes one such collaboration in Lincoln, Nebraska. The purpose of the article is to show the potential of such collaboration to improve community-wide coordination and outcomes by following the principles of a community-engagement model, to generate more effective use of evaluative tools that can assist in developing evidence-based practices in community planning, and to connect areas of study within the university to United Way efforts.