Evaluation of operational SSM/I ice-concentration algorithms

The United States National Ice Center (NIC) provides weekly ice analyses of the Arctic and Antarctic using information from ice reconnaissance, ship reports and high-resolution satellite imagery. In cloud-covered areas and regions lacking imagery, the higher-resolution sources are augmented by ice concentrations derived from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSMII) passive-microwave imagery. However, the SSMII-derived ice concentrations are limited by low resolution and uncertainties in thin-ice regions. Ongoing research at NIC is attempting to improve the utility of these SSMII products for operational sea-ice analyses. The refinements of operational algorithms may also aid future scientific studies. Here we discuss an evaluation of the standard operational ice-concentration algorithm, Cal/Val, with a possible alternative, a modified NASA Team algorithm. The modified algorithm compares favorably with CallVal and is a substantial improvement over the standard NASA Team algorithm in thin-ice regions that are of particular interest to operational activities.

Holocene lake-level trends in the Rocky Mountains, USA

The availability of water shapes life in the western United States, and much of the water in the region originates in the Rocky Mountains. Few studies, however, have explicitly examined the history of water levels in the Rocky Mountains during the Holocene. Here, we examine the past levels of three lakes near the Continental Divide in Montana and Colorado to reconstruct Holocene moisture trends. Using transects of sediment cores and sub-surface geophysical profiles from each lake, we find that mid-Holocene shorelines in the small lakes (4–110 ha) were as much as ~10 m below the modern lake surfaces. Our results are consistent with existing evidence from other lakes and show that a wide range of settings in the region were much drier than today before 3000–2000 years ago. We also discuss evidence for millennial-scale moisture variation, including an abruptly-initiated and -terminated wet period in Colorado from 4400 to 3700 cal yr BP, and find only limited evidence for low-lake stands during the past millennium. The extent of low-water levels during the mid-Holocene, which were most severe and widespread ca. 7000–4500 cal yr BP, is consistent with the extent of insolation-induced aridity in previously published regional climate model simulations. Like the simulations, the lake data provide no evidence for enhanced zonal flow during the mid-Holocene, which has been invoked to explain enhanced mid-continent aridity at the time. The data, including widespread evidence for large changes on orbital time scales and for more limited changes during the last millennium, confirm the ability of large boundary-condition changes to push western water supplies beyond the range of recent natural variability.

A diatom record of late Holocene climate variation in the northern range of Yellowstone National Park, USA

The changes in diatom species composition in a sediment core from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, spanning the past 2550 yr, were used to reconstruct long-term limnological and ecological conditions that may be related to late Holocene climate variability. Planktic forms dominate the fossil diatom assemblages throughout this record, but changes in species dominance indicate varying nutrient levels over time, particularly phosphorus. The changes in the nutrient concentrations in the lake were probably driven by changes in temperature and wind strength that affected the duration of watercolumn mixing and thus the extent of nutrient recycling from deep waters. Prior to 2100 cal before present (BP), Stephanodiscus minutulus and Synedra tenera dominated, suggesting long cool springs with extensive regeneration of phosphorus from the hypolimnion that resulted from isothermal mixing. From 2100 to 800 cal BP, these species were replaced by Cyclotella michiganiana and Cyclotella bodanica. These species are characteristic of lower nutrient concentrations and are interpreted here to reflect warm summers with long periods of thermal stratification. From 800 to 50 cal BP, S. minutulus dominated the diatom assemblage, suggesting a return to lengthy mixing during spring. The most dramatic late Holocene changes in the fossil diatom assemblages occurred during the transition from the Medieval Period to the Little Ice Age, approximately 800 cal BP.

Evidence for Millennial-Scale Climate Change During Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 at Little Lake, Western Oregon, U.S.A.

Pollen and geochemical data from Little Lake, western Oregon, suggest several patterns of millennial-scale environmental change during marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 (14,100–27,600 cal yr B.P.) and the latter part of MIS 3 (27,600–42,500 cal yr B.P.). During MIS 3, a series of transitions between warm- and cold-adapted taxa indicate that temperatures oscillated by ca. 2±–4±C every 1000–3000 yr. Highs and lows in summer insolation during MIS 3 are generally associated with the warmest and coldest intervals. Warm periods at Little Lake correlate with warm sea-surface temperatures in the Santa Barbara Basin. Changes in the strength of the subtropical high and the jet stream may account for synchronous changes at the two sites. During MIS 2, shifts between mesic and xeric subalpine forests suggest changes in precipitation every 1000–3000 yr. Increases in Tsuga heterophylla pollen at 25,000 and 22,000 cal yr B.P. imply brief warmings. Minimum summer insolation and maximum global ice-volumes during MIS 2 correspond to cold and dry conditions. Fluctuations in precipitation at Little Lake do not correlate with changes in the Santa Barbara Basin and may be explained by variations in the strength of the glacial anticyclone and the position of the jet stream.