Fire History at the Southwestern Great Plains Margin, Capulin Volcano National Monument

This study documents historic fire events at Capulin Volcano National Monument over the last four centuries using dendrochronologically dated fire scars at two sites: the lower volcano lava flows (the Boca) and the adjacent canyon slopes (Morrow Ranch). The mean fire interval (MFI) was 12 years at the Boca site (before 1890) and 5.4 years (1600-1750) and 19.1 years (1751-1890) at the Morrow Ranch site. Data from the Boca and Morrow Ranch sites combined with the extremely pyrogenic landscape position of the volcano slopes indicate that the volcano slopes likely burned more frequently (e.g., MFI <5 yr). Around 1750, the fire regime appeared to transition to longer fire intervals, greater temporal synchrony among fire-scarred trees, and a higher proportion of trees scarred in fire years. Temporal variability in the fire regime at Capulin Volcano may reflect changes in human populations, climate, and land use.

The Performance of Elliptic Curve Based Group Diffie-Hellman Protocols for Secure Group Communication over Ad Hoc Networks

The security of the two party Diffie-Hellman key exchange protocol is currently based on the discrete logarithm problem (DLP). However, it can also be built upon the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP). Most proposed secure group communication schemes employ the DLP-based Diffie-Hellman protocol. This paper proposes the ECDLP-based Diffie-Hellman protocols for secure group communication and evaluates their performance on wireless ad hoc networks. The proposed schemes are compared at the same security level with DLP-based group protocols under different channel conditions. Our experiments and analysis show that the Tree-based Group Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman (TGECDH) protocol is the best in overall performance for secure group communication among the four schemes discussed in the paper. Low communication overhead, relatively low computation load and short packets are the main reasons for the good performance of the TGECDH protocol.

Active Learning to Maximize Area Under the ROC Curve

In active learning, a machine learning algorithmis given an unlabeled set of examples U, and is allowed to request labels for a relatively small subset of U to use for training. The goal is then to judiciously choose which examples in U to have labeled in order to optimize some performance criterion, e.g. classification accuracy. We study how active learning affects AUC. We examine two existing algorithms from the literature and present our own active learning algorithms designed to maximize the AUC of the hypothesis. One of our algorithms was consistently the top performer, and Closest Sampling from the literature often came in second behind it. When good posterior probability estimates were available, our heuristics were by far the best.

Yellowstone Super-Volcano: Evalutaion, Potential Threats, and Possible effects on Nebraska Citizens Health and Prosperity

Abstract Yellowstone National Park is located over a hot spot under the North American tectonic plate and holds a potentially explosive super-volcano that has the ability to cause deadly consequences on the North American continent. After an eruption the surrounding region would see the greatest devastation, covered by pyroclastic deposits and thick ash fall exterminating most all life and destroying all structures in its path. In landscapes of greater distance from the event the consequences will be less dramatic yet still substantial. Records of previous eruption data from the Yellowstone super-volcano show that the ash fall out from the eruption can cover areas as large as one million square kilometers and could leave Nebraska covered in ash up to 10 centimeters thick. This would cause destruction of agriculture, extensive damage to structures, decreased temperatures, and potential respiratory hazards. The effects of volcanic ash on the human respiratory system have been shown to cause acute symptoms from heavy exposure. Symptoms include nasal irritation, throat irritation, coughing, and if preexisting conditions are present some can develop bronchial symptoms, which can last for a few days. People with bronchitis and asthma are shown to experience airway irritation and uncomfortable breathing. In most occurrences, exposure of volcanic ash is too short to cause long-term health hazards. Wearing facial protection can alleviate much of the symptoms. Most of the long-term ramifications of the eruption will be from the atmospheric changes caused from disruption of solar radiation, which will affect much of the global population. The most pertinent concerns for Nebraska citizens are from the accumulation of ash deposits over the landscape and the climatic perturbations. Potential mitigation procedures are essential to prepare our essentially unaware population of the threat that they may soon face if the volcano continues on its eruption cycle.