Spatial modelling and prediction on river networks: up model, down model or hybrid?

Preservation of rivers and water resources is crucial in most environmental policies and many efforts are made to assess water quality. Environmental monitoring of large river networks are based on measurement stations. Compared to the total length of river networks, their number is often limited and there is a need to extend environmental variables that are measured locally to the whole river network. The objective of this paper is to propose several relevant geostatistical models for river modeling. These models use river distance and are based on two contrasting assumptions about dependency along a river network. Inference using maximum likelihood, model selection criterion and prediction by kriging are then developed. We illustrate our approach on two variables that differ by their distributional and spatial characteristics: summer water temperature and nitrate concentration. The data come from 141 to 187 monitoring stations in a network on a large river located in the Northeast of France that is more than 5000 km long and includes Meuse and Moselle basins. We first evaluated different spatial models and then gave prediction maps and error variance maps for the whole stream network.

Xenia Effects on Quality of Maize Female Inbred in Production of Hybrid Seeds

In Maize (Zea maize L.), cost of hybrid seed production is directly related to the yield and quality of seed obtained per hectare of female parent. It is also important to consider the effects that a male parent can exert on the development of hybrid seed in the female parent. This effect is known as xenia. The objectives of this study were to evaluate xenia effects on 1) yield as 80K units, 2) germination of the hybrid seed and 3) susceptibility of the hybrid seed to mechanical damage. One female inbred and four male inbred lines were selected from a parent list of hybrids. The experiment was designed to allow individual cross pollination between each male inbred and the female inbred line. For use as a control, the female inbred was allowed to self pollinate. Experiments were conducted in Illinois and Iowa during 2008 and 2009 and in Nebraska during 2009. A significant inbred effect was detected on yield as 80k (α=0.001). The selfed female and pollination with male inbred B resulted in lower yields of hybrid seed. For germination, a significant inbred effect was detected (α=0.001), but was due to lower germination percentage of seed produced on the selfed female. All hybrid combinations resulted in higher germination percentages with no significant differences among hybrids. The inbred x mechanical damage interaction was significant (P=0.04) for effects on cold saturated soil germination tests. Use of inbred B resulted in a two-percentage-point reduction in cold germination when treated with the impact simulator. In a maize seed company, the production research group provides yield estimates for production of new hybrid combinations. Results from this study indicate that using only the female inbred yield may provide inaccurate estimates. Therefore to improve yield estimation, experiments should be designed to include male inbreds. Male inbreds can also impart a negative effect to the hybrid seed on tolerance to mechanical damage, thus lowering quality and increasing seed discard. When testing for hybrid seed germination, there is no need to consider distinct hybrid combinations. Female inbreds can be grown in open-pollinated fields to avoid loss of vigor observed with selfing. Advisor: George Graef