Spatial modelling and prediction on river networks: up model, down model or hybrid?

Preservation of rivers and water resources is crucial in most environmental policies and many efforts are made to assess water quality. Environmental monitoring of large river networks are based on measurement stations. Compared to the total length of river networks, their number is often limited and there is a need to extend environmental variables that are measured locally to the whole river network. The objective of this paper is to propose several relevant geostatistical models for river modeling. These models use river distance and are based on two contrasting assumptions about dependency along a river network. Inference using maximum likelihood, model selection criterion and prediction by kriging are then developed. We illustrate our approach on two variables that differ by their distributional and spatial characteristics: summer water temperature and nitrate concentration. The data come from 141 to 187 monitoring stations in a network on a large river located in the Northeast of France that is more than 5000 km long and includes Meuse and Moselle basins. We first evaluated different spatial models and then gave prediction maps and error variance maps for the whole stream network.

Host-Specificity of Myxoma Virus: Pathogenesis of South American and North American Strains of Myxoma Virus in Two North American Lagomorph Species

The pathogenesis of South American and North American myxoma viruses was examined in two species of North American lagomorphs, Sylvilagus nuttallii (mountain cottontail) and Sylvilagus audubonii (desert cottontail) both of which have been shown to have the potential to transmit the South American type of myxoma virus. Following infection with the South American strain (Lausanne, Lu), S. nuttallii developed both a local lesion and secondary lesions on the skin. They did not develop the classical myxomatosis seen in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). The infection at the inoculation site did not resolve during the 20-day time course of the trial and contained transmissible virus titres at all times. In contrast, S. audubonii infected with Lu had very few signs of disseminated infection and partially controlled virus replication at the inoculation site. The prototype Californian strain of myxoma virus (MSW) was able to replicate at the inoculation site of both species but did not induce clinical signs of a disseminated infection. In S. audubonii, there was a rapid response to MSW characterized by a massive T lymphocyte infiltration of the inoculation site by day 5. MSW did not reach transmissible titres at the inoculation site in either species. This might explain why the Californian myxoma virus has not expanded its host-range in North America.

A Fixed Netting System as a Means of Excluding Birds From a Domestic Waste Landfill

Many bird species are attracted to landfills which take domestic or putrescible waste. These sites provide a reliable, rich source of food which can attract large concentrations of birds. The birds may cause conflicts with human interest with respect to noise, birds carrying litter off site, possible transmission of pathogens in bird droppings and the potential for birdstrikes. In the UK there is an 8 mile safeguarding radius around an airfield, within which any planning applications must pass scrutiny from regulatory bodies to show they will not attract birds into the area and increase the birdstrike risk. Peckfield Landfill site near Leeds, West Yorkshire was chosen for a trial of a netting system designed to exclude birds from domestic waste landfills. The site was assessed for bird numbers before the trial, during the netting trial and after the net had been removed. A ScanCord net was installed for 6 weeks, during which time all household waste was tipped inside the net. Gull numbers decreased on the site from a mean of 1074 per hourly count to 29 per hourly count after two days. The gull numbers increased again after the net had been removed. Bird concentrations in the surroundings were also monitored to assess the effect of the net. Bird numbers in the immediate vicinity of the landfill site were higher than those further away. When the net was installed, the bird concentrations adjacent to the landfill site decreased. Corvids were not affected by the net as they fed on covered waste which was available outside the net throughout the trial. This shows that bird problems on a landfill site are complex, requiring a comprehensive policy of bird control. A supporting bird scaring system and clear operating policy for sites near to airports would be required.