9 resultados para Susceptible infected susceptible epidemilogical model
em DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln
Resumo:
The Animal Health Board (AHB) is the agency responsible for controlling bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in New Zealand. In 2000, the AHB embarked on a strategy designed to reduce the annual period prevalence of Tb infected cattle and farmed deer herds from 1.67% to 0.2% by 2012/13. Under current rules of the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) this would allow New Zealand to claim freedom from Tb. The epidemiology of Tb in New Zealand is largely influenced by wildlife reservoirs of infection and control of Tb vector populations is central to the elimination of Tb from New Zealand’s cattle and deer herds. The AHB has classified New Zealand’s land area into Vector Risk Areas (VRAs) where Tb is established in wildlife (currently 39%) and Vector Free Areas (VFAs) where the disease is not established (61%). Within the VRAs the introduced Australian brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the primary wildlife maintenance host and the main source of infection for domestic cattle and deer herds. Southland is a region of New Zealand with a long history of wildlife associated Tb. Progress in reducing infected herd numbers has been impressive in recent years, primarily due to an intensive possum control program. As a result of this reduction, the focus is now shifting to that of providing increasing levels of confidence that Tb is absent from the remaining susceptible wildlife. High levels of confidence of Tb freedom in wildlife will allow the AHB to reduce the wildlife control programs and ultimately cease control altogether, with minimal risk of Tb reemerging. This paper examines the strategies being utilized to provide that confidence. The types of data, the format in which it is collected and the methods of analysis and review are outlined.
Resumo:
The spread of wildlife diseases is a major threat to livestock, human health, resource-based recreation, and biodiversity conservation (Cleaveland, Laurenson, and Taylor). The development of economically sound wildlife disease-management strategies requires an understanding of the links between ecological functions (e.g., disease transmission and wildlife dispersal) and economic choices, and the associated tradeoffs. Spatial linkages are particularly relevant. Yet while ecologists have long-argued that space is important (Hudson et al.), prior economic work has largely ignored spatial issues. For instance, Horan and Wolf analyzed a case study of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Michigan deer, a problem where the disease appears to be confined to a single, spatially confined, wildlife population—an island. But wildlife disease matters generally are not spatially confined. Barlow, in analyzing bTB in possums in New Zealand, accounted for immigration of susceptible possums into a disease reservoir. However, he modeled immigration as fixed and unaffected by management. Bicknell, Wilen, and Howitt, also focusing on possums in New Zealand, developed a model that incorporates simple density-dependent net migration. This allowed the authors to account for endogenous immigration when deriving optimal culling strategies.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to develop a suitable experimental model of natural Mycobacterium bovis infection in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), describe the distribution and character of tuberculous lesions, and to examine possible routes of disease transmission. In October 1997, 10 mature female white-tailed deer were inoculated by intratonsilar instillation of 2 3 103 (low dose) or 2 3 105 (high dose) colony forming units (CFU) of M. bovis. In January 1998, deer were euthanatized, examined, and tissues were collected 84 to 87 days post inoculation. Possible routes of disease transmission were evaluated by culture of nasal, oral, tonsilar, and rectal swabs at various times during the study. Gross and microscopic lesions consistent with tuberculosis were most commonly seen in medial retropharyngeal lymph nodes and lung in both dosage groups. Other tissues containing tuberculous lesions included tonsil, trachea, liver, and kidney as well as lateral retropharyngeal, mandibular, parotid, tracheobronchial, mediastinal, hepatic, mesenteric, superficial cervical, and iliac lymph nodes. Mycobacterium bovis was isolated from tonsilar swabs from 8 of 9 deer from both dosage groups at least once 14 to 87 days after inoculation. Mycobacterium bovis was isolated from oral swabs 63 and 80 days after inoculation from one of three deer in the low dose group and none of four deer in the high dose group. Similarly, M. bovis was isolated from nasal swabs 80 and 85 days after inoculation in one of three deer from the low dose group and 63 and 80 days after inoculation from two of four deer in the high dose group. Intratonsilar inoculation with M. bovis results in lesions similar to those seen in naturally infected white-tailed deer; therefore, it represents a suitable model of natural infection. These results also indicate that M. bovis persists in tonsilar crypts for prolonged periods and can be shed in saliva and nasal secretions. These infected fluids represent a likely route of disease transmission to other animals or humans.
Resumo:
Tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis infection is endemic in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the northeastern portion of the lower Michigan peninsula (USA). Various wild carnivores and omnivores, including raccoons (Procyon lotor), are infected with M. bovis within the endemic area. To investigate the pathogenesis of tuberculosis in raccoons and the likelihood of M. bovis transmission from infected raccoons to other susceptible hosts, we experimentally inoculated raccoons with single oral doses of M. bovis (ranging from 30 to 1.7 x 105 colony forming units [CFU]), five daily oral doses of M. bovis (ranging from 10 to 1 x 105 CFU), or a single intravenous (IV) dose of 1 x 105 CFU of M. bovis, from November 1998 through December 2000. Granulomatous lesions consistent with tuberculosis, or tissue colonization with M. bovis, were seen in one of five raccoons in the single low oral dose group, one of five raccoons in the multiple low oral dose group, two of five raccoons in the multiple medium oral dose group, five of five raccoons in the multiple high oral dose group, and five of five raccoons in the IV inoculated group. In orally inoculated raccoons, lesions were most common in the tracheobronchial and mesenteric lymph nodes and lung. Excretion of M. bovis in saliva or nasal secretions was noted in all IV inoculated raccoons and two of five multiple low oral dose raccoons. Mycobacterium bovis was not isolated from urine or feces from any experimentally inoculated raccoons. The need for multiple large oral doses to establish infection, and the low number of orally inoculated raccoons that excreted M. bovis in nasal secretions or saliva, suggest that widespread tuberculosis among raccoons is unlikely.
Resumo:
The transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants to public-supply wells was evaluated in a part of the High Plains aquifer near York, Nebraska, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The aquifer in the Eastern High Plains regional study area is composed of Quaternary alluvial deposits typical of the High Plains aquifer in eastern Nebraska and Kansas, is an important water source for agricultural irrigation and public water supply, and is susceptible and vulnerable to contamination. A six-layer, steady-state ground-water flow model of the High Plains aquifer near York, Nebraska, was constructed and calibrated to average conditions for the time period from 1997 to 2001. The calibrated model and advective particle-tracking simulations were used to compute areas contributing recharge and travel times from recharge areas to selected public-supply wells. Model results indicate recharge from agricultural irrigation return flow and precipitation (about 89 percent of inflow) provides most of the ground-water inflow, whereas the majority of ground-water discharge is to pumping wells (about 78 percent of outflow). Particle-tracking results indicate areas contributing recharge to public-supply wells extend northwest because of the natural ground-water gradient from the northwest to the southeast across the study area. Particle-tracking simulations indicate most ground-water travel times from areas contributing recharge range from 20 to more than 100 years but that some ground water, especially that in the lower confined unit, originates at the upgradient model boundary instead of at the water table in the study area and has travel times of thousands of years.
Resumo:
Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.
Resumo:
Human monkeypox has never been reported in Ghana, but rodents captured in forested areas of southern Ghana were the source of the monkeypox virus introduced into the United States in 2003. Subsequent to the outbreak in the United States, 204 animals were collected from two commercial trapping sites in Ghana. Animal tissues were examined for the presence of orthopoxvirus (OPXV) DNA using a real-time polymerase chain reaction, and sera were assayed for antibodies against OPXV. Animals from five genera (Cricetomys , Graphiurus , Funiscirus, and Heliosciurus ) had antibodies against OPXV, and three genera (Cricetomys , Graphiurus , and Xerus) had evidence of OPXV DNA in tissues. Additionally, 172 persons living near the trapping sites were interviewed regarding risk factors for OPXV exposure, and their sera were analyzed. Fifty-three percent had IgG against OPXV; none had IgM. Our findings suggest that several species of forest-dwelling rodents from Ghana are susceptible to naturally occurring OPXV infection, and that persons living near forests may have low-level or indirect exposure to OPXV-infected animals, possibly resulting in sub-clinical infections.
Resumo:
To better understand agronomic and end-use quality in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) we developed a population containing 154 F6:8 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from the cross TAM107-R7/Arlin. The parental lines and RILs were phenotyped at six environments in Nebraska and differed for resistance to Wheat soilborne mosaic virus (WSBMV), morphological, agronomic, and end-use quality traits. Additionally, a 2300 cM genome-wide linkage map was created for quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis. Based on our results across multiple environments, the best RILs could be used for cultivar improvement. The population and marker data are publicly available for interested researchers for future research. The population was used to determine the effect of WSBMV on agronomic and end-use quality and for the mapping of a resistance locus. Results from two infected environments showed that all but two agronomic traits were significantly affected by the disease. Specifically, the disease reduced grain yield by 30% of susceptible RILs and they flowered 5 d later and were 11 cm shorter. End-use quality traits were not negatively affected but flour protein content was increased in susceptible RILs. The resistance locus SbmTmr1 mapped to 27.1 cM near marker wPt-5870 on chromosome 5DL using ELISA data. Finally, we investigated how WSBMV affected QTL detection in the population. QTLs were mapped at two WSBMV infected environments, four uninfected environments, and in the resistant and susceptible RIL subpopulations in the infected environments. Fifty-two significant (LOD≥3) QTLs were mapped in RILs at uninfected environments. Many of the QTLs were pleiotropic or closely linked at 6 chromosomal regions. Forty-seven QTLs were mapped in RILs at WSBMV infected environments. Comparisons between uninfected and infected environments identified 20 common QTLs and 21 environmentally specific QTLs. Finally, 24 QTLs were determined to be affected by WSBMV by comparing the subpopulations in QTL analyses within the same environment. The comparisons were statistically validated using marker by disease interactions. These results showed that QTLs can be affected by WSBMV and careful interpretation of QTL results is needed where biotic stresses are present. Finally, beneficial QTLs not affected by WSBMV or the environment are candidates for marker-assisted selection.
Resumo:
• Chronic Wasting Disease Update: Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Dakota, Colorado; National CWD Management – USDA & USDI National Plan for Assisting States, Federal Agencies, and Tribes in Managing Chronic Wasting Disease in Free-ranging and Captive Cervids • West Nile virus (WNV) reaches the Pacific coast • West Nile Virus in Blue Jays • Idaho Brucellosis Linked to Wildlife: All of the epidemiological and laboratory information clearly indicates that brucellosis-infected elk transmitted the disease to the cattle herd. • Tularemia caused a die-off of captured wild prairie dogs this summer at a Texas commercial exotic animal facility that distributes the animals for sale as pets. • Raptors can acquire avian vacuolar myelinopathy (AVM) via ingestion of other affected birds. • House Finch Mycoplasmosis: bacterial eye disease of house finches • Raccoon Rabies report • Toxoplasmosis – The newest finding regarding sea otters in California is the importance of toxoplasmosis as a mortality factor. Toxoplasma gondii is a protozoan parasite that can invade visceral organs and the central nervous system to cause acute, disseminated tissue necrosis and fatal meningoencephalitis in susceptible animals. In recent years, 36% of dead sea otters examined have been infected. Another tissue-invading protozoan, Sarcocystis neurona, also was found in 4% of the otters. • Recovery of remnant populations of the endangered black-footed ferret have been hampered by sylvatic plague, which is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. • Dr. Samantha Gibbs received the Wildlife Disease Association’s Student Research Recognition Award. Dr. Cynthia Tate was selected by the American Association of Veterinary Parasitologists to receive the Best Student Presentation Award. Dr. Andrea Varela won second place in the Student Presentation Award for her presentation at the meeting of the American Association Veterinary Parasitologists. Mr. Michael Yabsley received the Wildlife Disease Association Student Scholarship and the S.A. Ewing Vectorborne Parasitology Award from the University of Georgia’s College of Veterinary Medicine.