A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

Improving IRT parameter estimates with small sample sizes: Evaluating the efficacy of a new data augmentation technique

The 3PL model is a flexible and widely used tool in assessment. However, it suffers from limitations due to its need for large sample sizes. This study introduces and evaluates the efficacy of a new sample size augmentation technique called Duplicate, Erase, and Replace (DupER) Augmentation through a simulation study. Data are augmented using several variations of DupER Augmentation (based on different imputation methodologies, deletion rates, and duplication rates), analyzed in BILOG-MG 3, and results are compared to those obtained from analyzing the raw data. Additional manipulated variables include test length and sample size. Estimates are compared using seven different evaluative criteria. Results are mixed and inconclusive. DupER augmented data tend to result in larger root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and lower correlations between estimates and parameters for both item and ability parameters. However, some DupER variations produce estimates that are much less biased than those obtained from the raw data alone. For one DupER variation, it was found that DupER produced better results for low-ability simulees and worse results for those with high abilities. Findings, limitations, and recommendations for future studies are discussed. Specific recommendations for future studies include the application of Duper Augmentation (1) to empirical data, (2) with additional IRT models, and (3) the analysis of the efficacy of the procedure for different item and ability parameter distributions.

An Analytical Model for Virtual Topology Reconfiguration in Optical Networks and A Case Study

An analytical model for Virtual Topology Reconfiguration (VTR) in optical networks is developed. It aims at the optical networks with a circuit-based data plane and an IPlike control plane. By identifying and analyzing the important factors impacting the network performance due to VTR operations on both planes, we can compare the benefits and penalties of different VTR algorithms and policies. The best VTR scenario can be adaptively chosen from a set of such algorithms and policies according to the real-time network situations. For this purpose, a cost model integrating all these factors is created to provide a comparison criterion independent of any specific VTR algorithm and policy. A case study based on simulation experiments is conducted to illustrate the application of our models.

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Cedar River Alluvial Aquifer Flow System, Cedar Rapids, Iowa Scientific

The Cedar River alluvial aquifer is the primary source of municipal water in the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, area. Since 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, has investigated the hydrogeology and water quality of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. This report describes a detailed analysis of the ground-water flow system in the alluvial aquifer, particularly near well field areas. The ground-water flow system in the Cedar Rapids area consists of two main components, the unconsolidated Quaternary deposits and the underlying carbonate bedrock that has a variable fracture density. Quaternary deposits consist of eolian sand, loess, alluvium, and glacial till. Devonian and Silurian bedrock aquifers overlie the Maquoketa Shale (Formation) of Ordovician age, a regional confining unit. Ground-water and surface-water data were collected during the study to better define the hydrogeology of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and Devonian and Silurian aquifers. Stream stage and discharge, ground-water levels, and estimates of aquifer hydraulic properties were used to develop a conceptual ground-water flow model and to construct and calibrate a model of the flow system. This model was used to quantify the movement of water between the various components of the alluvial aquifer flow system and provide an improved understanding of the hydrology of the alluvial aquifer.