State of the Arctic October 2006

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004, 2005). Of particular note: • Atmospheric climate patterns are shifting (Fig. 1). The late winter/spring pattern for 2000–2005 had new hot spots in northeast Canada and the East Siberian Sea relative to 1980–1999. Late winter 2006, however, shows a return to earlier climate patterns, with warm temperatures in the extended region near Svalbard. • Ocean salinity and temperature profiles at the North Pole and in the Beaufort Sea, which changed abruptly in the 1990s, show that conditions since 2000 have relaxed toward the pre-1990 climatology, although 2001–2004 has seen an increase in northward ocean heat transport through Bering Strait (Fig. 2), which is thought to impact sea ice loss. • Sea ice extent continues to decrease. The sea ice extent in September 2005 was the minimum observed in summer during the satellite era (beginning in 1979), marking an unprecedented series of extreme ice extent minima beginning in 2002 (Fig. 3). The sea ice extent in March 2006 was also the minimum observed in winter during the satellite era. • Tundra vegetation greenness increased, primarily due to an increase in the abundance of shrubs. Boreal forest vegetation greenness decreased, possibly due to drought conditions (Fig. 4). • There is increasing interest in the stability of the Greenland ice sheet. The velocity of outlet glaciers increased in 2005 relative to 2000 and 1995, but uncertainty remains with regard to the total mass balance. • Permafrost temperatures continue to increase. However, data on changes in the active layer thickness (the relatively thin layer of ground between the surface and permafrost that undergoes seasonal freezing and thawing) are less conclusive. While some of the sites show a barely noticeable increasing trend in the thickness of the active layer, most of them do not. • Globally, 2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (beginning in 1880), with the Arctic providing a large contribution toward this increase. Many of the trends documented in the ACIA are continuing, but some are not. Taken collectively, the observations presented in this report indicate that during 2000–2005 the Arctic system showed signs of continued warming. However, there are a few indications that certain elements may be recovering and returning to recent climatological norms (for example, the central Arctic Ocean and some wind patterns). These mixed tendencies further illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic physical system. They underline the importance of maintaining and expanding efforts to observe and better understand this important component of the climate system to provide accurate predictions of its future state.

The western gray whale: a review of past exploitation, current status and potential threats

Gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) occur along the eastern and western coastlines of the North Pacific as two geographically isolated populations and have traditionally been divided into the eastern (California-Chukchi) and western (Korean-Okhotsk) populations. Recent molecular comparisons confirm, based on differences in haplotypic frequencies, that these populations are genetically separated at the population-level. Both populations were commercially hunted, but only the eastern gray whale has returned to near pre-exploitation numbers. In contrast, the western population remains highly depleted, shows no apparent signs of recovery and its future survival remains uncertain. Research off Sakhalin Island, Russia between 1995 and 1999 has produced important new information on the present day conservation status of western gray whales and provided the basis for the World Conservation Union (IUCN) to list the population as 'Critically Endangered in 2000. The information presented here, in combination with potential impacts from anthropogenic threats throughout the range of this population, raises strong concerns about the recovery and continued survival of the western gray whale.

Host-Specificity of Myxoma Virus: Pathogenesis of South American and North American Strains of Myxoma Virus in Two North American Lagomorph Species

The pathogenesis of South American and North American myxoma viruses was examined in two species of North American lagomorphs, Sylvilagus nuttallii (mountain cottontail) and Sylvilagus audubonii (desert cottontail) both of which have been shown to have the potential to transmit the South American type of myxoma virus. Following infection with the South American strain (Lausanne, Lu), S. nuttallii developed both a local lesion and secondary lesions on the skin. They did not develop the classical myxomatosis seen in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). The infection at the inoculation site did not resolve during the 20-day time course of the trial and contained transmissible virus titres at all times. In contrast, S. audubonii infected with Lu had very few signs of disseminated infection and partially controlled virus replication at the inoculation site. The prototype Californian strain of myxoma virus (MSW) was able to replicate at the inoculation site of both species but did not induce clinical signs of a disseminated infection. In S. audubonii, there was a rapid response to MSW characterized by a massive T lymphocyte infiltration of the inoculation site by day 5. MSW did not reach transmissible titres at the inoculation site in either species. This might explain why the Californian myxoma virus has not expanded its host-range in North America.

Development of an Electrochemical Insulin Sensor Based on a High Affinity DNA Sequence Found in the Insulin-linked Polymorphic Region

The detection of pertinent biomarkers has the potential provide an early indication of disease progression before considerable damage has been incurred. A decrease in an individual’s sensitivity to insulin, which may be quantified as the ratio of insulin to glucose in the blood after a glucose pulse, has recently been reported as an early predictor of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Routine measurement of insulin levels is therefore desirable in the care of diabetes-prone individuals. A rapid, simple, and reagentless method for insulin detection would allow for wide-spread screenings that provide earlier signs of diabetes onset. The aim of this thesis is to develop a folding-base electrochemical sensor for the detection of insulin. The sensor described herein consists of a DNA probe immobilized on a gold disc electrode via an alkanethiol linker and embedded in an alkanethiol self-assembled monolayer. The probe is labeled with a redox reporter, which readily transfers electrons to the gold electrode in the absence of insulin. In the presence of insulin, electron transfer is inhibited, presumably due to a binding-induced conformational or dynamic change in the DNA probe that significantly alters the electron-tunneling pathway. A 28-base segment of the insulin-linked polymorphic region that has been reported to bind insulin with high affinity serves as the capture element of the DNA probe. Three probe constructs that vary in their secondary structure and position of the redox label are evaluated for their utility as insulin-sensing elements on the electrochemical platform. The effects of probe modification on secondary structure are also evaluated using circular dichroism spectroscopy.