2 resultados para Risk-Neutral Probability
em DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln
Resumo:
In recent decades the management of large game mammals has become increasingly intensive in south central Spain (SCS), resulting in complex epidemiological scenarios for disease maintenance, and has probably impeded schemes to eradicate tuberculosis (TB) in domestic livestock. We conducted an analysis of risk factors which investigated associations between the pattern of tuberculosis-like lesions (TBL) in wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) across 19 hunting estates from SCS and an extensive set of variables related to game management, land use and habitat structure. The aggregation of wild boar at artificial watering sites was significantly associated with an increasing risk of detecting TBL in both species, which probably relates to enhanced opportunities for transmission. Aggregation of wild boar at feeding sites was also associated with increased risks of TBL in red deer. Hardwood Quercus spp. forest availability was marginally associated with an increased risk of TB in both species, whereas scrubland cover was associated with a reduced individual risk of TBL in the wild boar. It is concluded that management practices that encourage the aggregation of hosts, and some characteristics of Mediterranean habitats could increase the frequency and probability of both direct and indirect transmission of TB. These findings are of concern for both veterinary and public health authorities, and reveal tuberculosis itself as a potential limiting factor for the development and sustainability of such intensive game management systems in Spanish Mediterranean habitats.
Resumo:
Recent theoretical writings suggest that the ineffective regulation of negative emotional states may reduce the ability of women to detect and respond effectively to situational and interpersonal factors that increase risk for sexual assault. However, little empirical research has explored this hypothesis. In the present study, it was hypothesized that prior sexual victimization and negative mood state would each independently predict poor risk recognition and less effective defensive actions in response to an analogue sexual assault vignette. Further, these variables were expected to interact to produce particularly impaired risk responses. Finally, that the in vivo emotion regulation strategy of suppression and corresponding cognitive resource usage (operationalized as memory impairment for the vignette) were hypothesized to mediate these associations. Participants were 668 female undergraduate students who were randomly assigned to receive a negative or neutral film mood induction followed by an audiotaped dating interaction during which they were instructed to indicate when the man had “gone too far” and describe an adaptive response to the situation. Approximately 33.5% of the sample reported a single victimization and 10% reported revictimization. Hypotheses were largely unsupported as sexual victimization history, mood condition, and their interaction did not impact risk recognition or adaptive responding. However, in vivo emotional suppression and cognitive resource usage were shown to predict delayed risk recognition only. Findings suggest that contrary to hypotheses, negative mood (as induced here) may not relate to risk recognition and response impairments. However, it may be important for victimization prevention programs that focus on risk perception to address possible underlying issues with emotional suppression and limited cognitive resources to improve risk perception abilities. Limitations and future directions are discussed.