Contributions of demography and dispersal parameters to the spatial spread of a stage-structured insect invasion

Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.

Use of Natural Vegetative Barriers to Limit Expansion of Blacktailed Prairie Dog Towns

Prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) control has historically consisted of lethal methods to maintain, reduce, or eliminate populations in South Dakota and throughout the species range. Non-lethal methods of control are desired to meet changing management objectives for the black-tailed prairie dog. The use of naturally occurring buffer strips as vegetative barriers may be effective in limiting prairie dog town expansion. The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate effective width of vegetative barriers in limiting prairie dog towns expansion in western South Dakota; and 2) to document effect native vegetation height on expansion of prairie dog towns in western South Dakota. Five study sites were established in western South Dakota on rangelands containing prairie dog towns of adequate size. Electric fences were constructed for the purpose of excluding cattle and creating buffer strips of native grasses and shrubs. Prairie dogs were poisoned to create a prairie dog free buffer zone adjacent to active prairie dog towns. Grazing was allowed on both sides of the buffer strip. When grazing pressure was not sufficient, mowing was used to simulate grazing. Buffer strips were 100 meters long and 10, 25, and 40 meters in width. A zero meter control was included on all study sites. Quadrats (25) were randomly distributed throughout the buffer strips. Evaluation of study sites included visual obstruction, vegetation cover, vegetation frequency, vegetation height, and vegetation identification. Barrier penetration was evaluated by the presence of new active burrows behind vegetative barriers. Significant relationships were documented for both VOR and vegetation height. No significant difference was found between frequency of breakthroughs and buffer widths.