3 resultados para Probabilities

em DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln


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As wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) evolves towards practical applications in optical transport networks, waveband switching (WBS) has been introduced to cut down the operational costs and to reduce the complexities and sizes of network components, e.g., optical cross-connects (OXCs). This paper considers the routing, wavelength assignment and waveband assignment (RWWBA) problem in a WDM network supporting mixed waveband and wavelength switching. First, the techniques supporting waveband switching are studied, where a node architecture enabling mixed waveband and wavelength switching is proposed. Second, to solve the RWWBA problem with reduced switching costs and improved network throughput, the cost savings and call blocking probabilities along intermediate waveband-routes are analyzed. Our analysis reveals some important insights about the cost savings and call blocking probability in relation to the fiber capacity, the candidate path, and the traffic load. Third, based on our analysis, an online integrated intermediate WBS algorithm (IIWBS) is proposed. IIWBS determines the waveband switching route for a call along its candidate path according to the node connectivity, the link utilization, and the path length information. In addition, the IIWBS algorithm is adaptive to real network applications under dynamic traffic requests. Finally, our simulation results show that IIWBS outperforms a previous intermediate WBS algorithm and RWA algorithms in terms of network throughput and cost efficiency.

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A demographic model is developed based on interbirth intervals and is applied to estimate the population growth rate of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Gulf of Maine. Fecundity rates in this model are based on the probabilities of giving birth at time t after a previous birth and on the probabilities of giving birth first at age x. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate these probabilities using sighting data collected for individually identified whales. Female survival rates are estimated from these same sighting data using a modified Jolly–Seber method. The youngest age at first parturition is 5 yr, the estimated mean birth interval is 2.38 yr (SE = 0.10 yr), the estimated noncalf survival rate is 0.960 (SE = 0.008), and the estimated calf survival rate is 0.875 (SE = 0.047). The population growth rate (l) is estimated to be 1.065; its standard error is estimated as 0.012 using a Monte Carlo approach, which simulated sampling from a hypothetical population of whales. The simulation is also used to investigate the bias in estimating birth intervals by previous methods. The approach developed here is applicable to studies of other populations for which individual interbirth intervals can be measured.

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Double-observer line transect methods are becoming increasingly widespread, especially for the estimation of marine mammal abundance from aerial and shipboard surveys when detection of animals on the line is uncertain. The resulting data supplement conventional distance sampling data with two-sample mark–recapture data. Like conventional mark–recapture data, these have inherent problems for estimating abundance in the presence of heterogeneity. Unlike conventional mark–recapture methods, line transect methods use knowledge of the distribution of a covariate, which affects detection probability (namely, distance from the transect line) in inference. This knowledge can be used to diagnose unmodeled heterogeneity in the mark–recapture component of the data. By modeling the covariance in detection probabilities with distance, we show how the estimation problem can be formulated in terms of different levels of independence. At one extreme, full independence is assumed, as in the Petersen estimator (which does not use distance data); at the other extreme, independence only occurs in the limit as detection probability tends to one. Between the two extremes, there is a range of models, including those currently in common use, which have intermediate levels of independence. We show how this framework can be used to provide more reliable analysis of double-observer line transect data. We test the methods by simulation, and by analysis of a dataset for which true abundance is known. We illustrate the approach through analysis of minke whale sightings data from the North Sea and adjacent waters.