Weather Derivatives as a Potential Risk Management Tool for Irrigators

Irrigators in the Republican Basin and in parts of the North Platte Basin must learn to incorporate multiple year drought risk into their management plans, as they adapt to the limitations imposed by five-year pumping allocations. A major concern involves the implications of being water-short during the later years of the allocation period, because of an accumulative rainfall shortage or drought. Currently, producers can either ignore the risk of substantially lower incomes if their allocation is exhausted too soon, or reduce the risk by using less water early in the allocation period. The latter approach, however, may substantially reduce the present value of total net income over the five-year period. Alternatively, in the future it may be possible to use weather derivatives to manage income risk.

Recommendations for Elimination of Bovine Tuberculosis in Free-Ranging White-Tailed Deer in Michigan

A significant infection rate of bovine TB in the deer population of the northeastern lower peninsula poses a potential risk to several important values including public health, United States Department of Agriculture (U.S.D.A.) TB-free accreditation for Michigan cattle, wildlife health, wildlife-related recreation and tourism and economic stability in several sectors. A risk assessment study by the U.S. D.A. Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health (Fort Collins, CO) predicted that if no changes were made in the management of the affected free-ranging deer population, the TB prevalence (compared to the current prevalence of 2.3%). Although the current annual risk of TB transfer to cattle in the affected area is .I%, the report estimated a 12% cumulative risk that at least one head of cattle would become infected over the next 25 years if no changes are made in deer and/or cattle management.

Risk Factors Associated With the Prevalence of Tuberculosis-Like Lesions in Fenced Wild Boar and Red Deer in South Central Spain

In recent decades the management of large game mammals has become increasingly intensive in south central Spain (SCS), resulting in complex epidemiological scenarios for disease maintenance, and has probably impeded schemes to eradicate tuberculosis (TB) in domestic livestock. We conducted an analysis of risk factors which investigated associations between the pattern of tuberculosis-like lesions (TBL) in wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) across 19 hunting estates from SCS and an extensive set of variables related to game management, land use and habitat structure. The aggregation of wild boar at artificial watering sites was significantly associated with an increasing risk of detecting TBL in both species, which probably relates to enhanced opportunities for transmission. Aggregation of wild boar at feeding sites was also associated with increased risks of TBL in red deer. Hardwood Quercus spp. forest availability was marginally associated with an increased risk of TB in both species, whereas scrubland cover was associated with a reduced individual risk of TBL in the wild boar. It is concluded that management practices that encourage the aggregation of hosts, and some characteristics of Mediterranean habitats could increase the frequency and probability of both direct and indirect transmission of TB. These findings are of concern for both veterinary and public health authorities, and reveal tuberculosis itself as a potential limiting factor for the development and sustainability of such intensive game management systems in Spanish Mediterranean habitats.

Predicting Problematic Approach Behavior Toward Politicians: Exploring the Potential Contributions of Control Theory

The potential merits of Carver and Scheier's (1981) control theory in the prediction of targeted violence are reviewed and several novel indicators of risk that are consistent with this theory are suggested for study. It was hypothesized that: (a) similarity between inappropriate contact with politicians and extremist group literature and writings; (b) the temporal proximity to violent or otherwise criminal actions and notable anniversaries of such groups; (c) detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior, and; (d) self-focus, will be significant predictors of problematic approach behavior. A sample of 506 individuals who engaged in threatening or otherwise inappropriate contact toward members of the United States Congress was drawn from the case files of the United States Capitol Police. Results of the present research indicated that detailed specification of a plan to engage in problematic approach behavior was strongly predictive of actually engaging in problematic approach. Furthermore, high self-focus was significantly related to problematic approach between-persons, although within-person, higher-than-average self-focus showed no such relation. Neither temporal proximity to notable acts of extremist violence nor similarity to known extremist group writings was found to be associated with problematic approach in this sample.

Scraping Behavior in Male White-tailed Deer as a Potential Means of Transmitting Chronic Wasting Disease

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has become a concern for wildlife managers and hunters across the United States. High prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in older male white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) suggests that sex-specific social behavior may contribute to the spread of the disease among males. Scraping is a marking behavior performed by male white-tailed deer during the rut in which a pawed depression and associated over-hanging branch are marked with saliva, glandular secretions, urine, and feces. We placed 71 and 35 motion-activated cameras on scrapes in DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge in western Nebraska and eastern Iowa from Oct. – Nov. 2005 and Sept. – Nov. 2006, respectively. We recorded 5009 encounters and 1830 direct interactions. We developed an ethogram of behaviors of interest at scrapes. We found that males interacted with scrapes more frequently than females (P < 0.001). Male interactions were more complex, with 69% consisting of ≥2 observed behaviors versus 25% and 13% for females and fawns. We identified individual male deer ≥2.5 years old and determined the minimum number of different scrapes individuals visited and the number of individuals that visit a single scrape. Individuals that appeared on camera ≥5 times visited a mean of 3.9 scrapes (range = 1-15) and traveled a mean minimum distance of 978 m between consecutive scrapes. A mean of 5.1 individuals visited a single scrape, and up to 43% of individuals returned to a scrape previously visited at least once. We modeled Risk Values based on frequency of occurrence, duration, and Threat Values of each behavior, for contacting and transmitting CWD prions at scrapes. Adult males had the highest total Risk Values for contacting CWD prions (114.1) and shedding prions (59.4). The “grasp-lick branch” behavior had the highest Risk Value for adult males for both contacting and transmitting prions. Our study reveals a sex specific social behavior in male white-tailed deer that has the potential to spread chronic wasting disease between adult males in the population.

Risk-based Modeling to Develop Zoning Criteria for Land-use Near Canadian Airports

Land development in the vicinity of airports often leads to land-use that can attract birds that are hazardous to aviation operations. For this reason, certain forms of land-use have traditionally been discouraged within prescribed distances of Canadian airports. However, this often leads to an unrealistic prohibition of land-use in the vicinity of airports located in urban settings. Furthermore, it is often unclear that the desired safety goals have been achieved. This paper describes a model that was created to assist in the development of zoning regulations for a future airport site in Canada. The framework links land-use to bird-related safety-risks and aircraft operations by categorizing the predictable relationships between: (i) different land uses found in urbanized and urbanizing settings near airports; (ii) bird species; and (iii) the different safety-risks to aircraft during various phases of flight. The latter is assessed relative to the runway approach and departure paths. Bird species are ranked to reflect the potential severity of an impact with an aircraft (using bird weight, flocking characteristics, and flight behaviours). These criteria are then employed to chart bird-related safety-risks relative to runway reference points. Each form of land-use is categorized to reflect the degree to which it attracts hazardous bird species. From this information, hazard and risk matrices have been developed and applied to the future airport setting, thereby providing risk-based guidance on appropriate land-uses that range from prohibited to acceptable. The framework has subsequently been applied to an existing Canadian airport, and is currently being adapted for national application. The framework provides a risk-based and science-based approach that offers municipalities and property owner’s flexibility in managing the risks to aviation related to their land use.