The Duration of the Effects of Repeated Widespread Badger Culling on Cattle Tuberculosis Following the Cessation of Culling

Background: In the British Isles, control of cattle tuberculosis (TB) is hindered by persistent infection of wild badger (Meles meles) populations. A large-scale field trial—the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT)—previously showed that widespread badger culling produced modest reductions in cattle TB incidence during culling, which were offset by elevated TB risks for cattle on adjoining lands. Once culling was halted, beneficial effects inside culling areas increased, while detrimental effects on adjoining lands disappeared. However, a full assessment of the utility of badger culling requires information on the duration of culling effects. Methodology/Principal Findings: We monitored cattle TB incidence in and around RBCT areas after culling ended. We found that benefits inside culled areas declined over time, and were no longer detectable by three years post-culling. On adjoining lands, a trend suggesting beneficial effects immediately after the end of culling was insignificant, and disappeared after 18 months post-culling. From completion of the first cull to the loss of detectable effects (an average five-year culling period plus 2.5 years post-culling), cattle TB incidence was 28.7% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.7 to 35.8% lower) inside ten 100 km2 culled areas than inside ten matched no-culling areas, and comparable (11.7% higher, 95% CI: 13.0% lower to 43.4% higher, p = 0.39) on lands #2 km outside culled and no-culling areas. The financial costs of culling an idealized 150 km2 area would exceed the savings achieved through reduced cattle TB, by factors of 2 to 3.5. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings show that the reductions in cattle TB incidence achieved by repeated badger culling were not sustained in the long term after culling ended and did not offset the financial costs of culling. These results, combined with evaluation of alternative culling methods, suggest that badger culling is unlikely to contribute effectively to the control of cattle TB in Britain.

Estimating the extent of spatial association of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers in Ireland

Mycobacterium bovis infects the wildlife species badgers Meles meles who are linked with the spread of the associated disease tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. Control of livestock infections depends in part on the spatial and social structure of the wildlife host. Here we describe spatial association of M. bovis infection in a badger population using data from the first year of the Four Area Project in Ireland. Using second-order intensity functions, we show there is strong evidence of clustering of TB cases in each the four areas, i.e. a global tendency for infected cases to occur near other infected cases. Using estimated intensity functions, we identify locations where particular strains of TB cluster. Generalized linear geostatistical models are used to assess the practical range at which spatial correlation occurs and is found to exceed 6 in all areas. The study is of relevance concerning the scale of localized badger culling in the control of the disease in cattle.

Spatial Management of Wildlife Disease

The spread of wildlife diseases is a major threat to livestock, human health, resource-based recreation, and biodiversity conservation (Cleaveland, Laurenson, and Taylor). The development of economically sound wildlife disease-management strategies requires an understanding of the links between ecological functions (e.g., disease transmission and wildlife dispersal) and economic choices, and the associated tradeoffs. Spatial linkages are particularly relevant. Yet while ecologists have long-argued that space is important (Hudson et al.), prior economic work has largely ignored spatial issues. For instance, Horan and Wolf analyzed a case study of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Michigan deer, a problem where the disease appears to be confined to a single, spatially confined, wildlife population—an island. But wildlife disease matters generally are not spatially confined. Barlow, in analyzing bTB in possums in New Zealand, accounted for immigration of susceptible possums into a disease reservoir. However, he modeled immigration as fixed and unaffected by management. Bicknell, Wilen, and Howitt, also focusing on possums in New Zealand, developed a model that incorporates simple density-dependent net migration. This allowed the authors to account for endogenous immigration when deriving optimal culling strategies.

Evaluation of Blood Assays for Detection of Mycobacterium bovis in White-Tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Michigan

Surveillance and control activities related to bovine tuberculosis (TB) in free-ranging, Michigan white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have been underway for over a decade, with significant progress. However, foci of higher TB prevalence on private lands and limited agency ability to eliminate them using broad control strategies have led to development and trial of new control strategies, such as live trapping, testing, and culling or release. Such strategies require a prompt, accurate live animal test, which has thus far been lacking. We report here the ability of seven candidate blood assays to determine the TB infection status of Michigan deer. Our aims were twofold: to characterize the accuracy of the tests using field-collected samples and to evaluate the feasibility of the tests for use in a test-and-cull strategy. Samples were collected from 760 deer obtained via five different surveys conducted between 2004 and 2007. Blood samples were subjected to one or more of the candidate blood assays and evaluated against the results of mycobacterial culture of the cranial lymph nodes. Sensitivities of the tests ranged from 46% to 68%, whereas specificities and negative predictive values were all .92%. Positive predictive values were highly variable. An exploratory analysis of associations among several host and sampling-related factors and the agreement between blood assay and culture results suggested these assays were minimally affected. This study demonstrated the capabilities and limitations of several available blood tests for Mycobacterium bovis on specimens obtained through a variety of field surveillance methods. Although these blood assays cannot replace mass culling, information on their performance may prove useful as wildlife disease managers develop innovative methods of detecting infected animals where mass culling is publicly unacceptable and cannot be used as a control strategy.

The whaling issue: Conservation, confusion, and casuistry

Morishita’s “multiple analysis”of the whaling issue [Morishita J. Multiple analysis of the whaling issue: Understanding the dispute by a matrix. Marine Policy 2006;30:802–8] is essentially a restatement of the Government of Japan’s whaling policy, which confuses the issue through selective use of data, unsubstantiated facts, and the vilification of opposing perspectives. Here, we deconstruct the major problems with Morishita’s article and provide an alternative view of the whaling dispute. For many people in this debate, the issue is not that some whales are not abundant, but that the whaling industry cannot be trusted to regulate itself or to honestly assess the status of potentially exploitable populations. This suspicion has its origin in Japan’s poor use of science, its often implausible stock assessments, its insistence that culling is an appropriate way to manage marine mammal populations, and its relatively recent falsification of whaling and fisheries catch data combined with a refusal to accept true transparency in catch and market monitoring. Japanese policy on whaling cannot be viewed in isolation, but is part of a larger framework involving a perceived right to secure unlimited access to global marine resources. Whaling is inextricably tied to the international fisheries agreements on which Japan is strongly dependent; thus, concessions made at the IWC would have potentially serious ramifications in other fora.

Evaluation of a New Strategy for Control of Bovine Tuberculosis in Michigan White-Tailed Deer: Year 1 Progress Report

The State of Michigan is striving to eliminate bovine tuberculosis (Tb) infection among free-ranging white-tailed deer in the northeastern Lower Peninsula of the state. Aggressive reduction in the overall deer population abundance may help to further reduce TB prevalence, but this course of action is unacceptable to many hunters and landowners. Targeted culling of sick deer would likely be far more acceptable to these stakeholders, so in the winter of 2003 the Michigan Department of Natural Resources pilot-trialed a new strategy based on live-trapping and Tb-testing of wild deer. The field study was conducted in a township with relatively high TB prevalence within Deer Management Unit 452 in the northeastern Lower Peninsula. Over a 2-month trapping period, 119 individual deer were live-trapped, blood sampled, fitted with a radio-collar, and released. A total of 31 of these deer were subsequently classified as Tb-suspect by at least one of five blood tests employed (however there was a low level of agreement among tests). A delay in testing meant that only six of these suspect deer were culled by sharpshooters before pre-programmed release of their radio-collars, after which they could no longer be located. Mycobacterium bovis was cultured from one of these six suspect deer; the other five were negative on culture. All target deer were located to within shooting range with 1 – 2 days of effort, and all the radio-collars on the apparently-healthy deer dropped off after the intended 90-day interval, and were thereafter recovered for re-use. There was considerable support for this pilot project among hunters, farmers, state and federal agriculture agencies, the media and the general public, and so we recommend that further field trials be undertaken using this technique. The initial focus of these trials should be on improving the efficacy and reliability of the blood testing procedure.

Overabundant deer: Better management through research

Overabundance of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) continues to challenge wildlife professionals nationwide, especially in urban settings. Moreover, wildlife managers often lack general site-specific information on deer movements, survival, and reproduction that are critical for management planning. We conducted radio-telemetry research concurrent with deer culling in forest preserves in northeastern Illinois and used empirical data to construct predictive population models. We culled 2,826 deer from 16 forest preserves in DuPage County (1992-1999) including 1,736 from the 10 km2 Waterfall Glen Forest Preserve. We also radio-marked 129 deer from 8 preserves in DuPage and adjacent Cook County (1994-1998). Recruitment was inversely associated with deer density suggesting a classic density-dependent response. Female deer were philopatric and 20% of adult males dispersed. Survival was high for all sex and age classes, and deer-vehicle collisions accounted for >55% of known mortalities. Based upon data from other areas, early attempts to apply population models to deer at Waterfall Glen Forest Preserve were not useful. The subsequent quantification of the density-dependent recruitment response and use of other empirical data strengthened the predictive capability of models. Our experience illustrates the importance of understanding demographics of overabundant deer in order to set realistic objectives and make sound management decisions.