State of the Arctic October 2006

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004, 2005). Of particular note: • Atmospheric climate patterns are shifting (Fig. 1). The late winter/spring pattern for 2000–2005 had new hot spots in northeast Canada and the East Siberian Sea relative to 1980–1999. Late winter 2006, however, shows a return to earlier climate patterns, with warm temperatures in the extended region near Svalbard. • Ocean salinity and temperature profiles at the North Pole and in the Beaufort Sea, which changed abruptly in the 1990s, show that conditions since 2000 have relaxed toward the pre-1990 climatology, although 2001–2004 has seen an increase in northward ocean heat transport through Bering Strait (Fig. 2), which is thought to impact sea ice loss. • Sea ice extent continues to decrease. The sea ice extent in September 2005 was the minimum observed in summer during the satellite era (beginning in 1979), marking an unprecedented series of extreme ice extent minima beginning in 2002 (Fig. 3). The sea ice extent in March 2006 was also the minimum observed in winter during the satellite era. • Tundra vegetation greenness increased, primarily due to an increase in the abundance of shrubs. Boreal forest vegetation greenness decreased, possibly due to drought conditions (Fig. 4). • There is increasing interest in the stability of the Greenland ice sheet. The velocity of outlet glaciers increased in 2005 relative to 2000 and 1995, but uncertainty remains with regard to the total mass balance. • Permafrost temperatures continue to increase. However, data on changes in the active layer thickness (the relatively thin layer of ground between the surface and permafrost that undergoes seasonal freezing and thawing) are less conclusive. While some of the sites show a barely noticeable increasing trend in the thickness of the active layer, most of them do not. • Globally, 2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (beginning in 1880), with the Arctic providing a large contribution toward this increase. Many of the trends documented in the ACIA are continuing, but some are not. Taken collectively, the observations presented in this report indicate that during 2000–2005 the Arctic system showed signs of continued warming. However, there are a few indications that certain elements may be recovering and returning to recent climatological norms (for example, the central Arctic Ocean and some wind patterns). These mixed tendencies further illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic physical system. They underline the importance of maintaining and expanding efforts to observe and better understand this important component of the climate system to provide accurate predictions of its future state.

Arctic Report Card 2007: Tracking Recent Environmental Changes

Collectively, the observations indicate that the overall warming of the Arctic system continued in 2007. There are some elements that are stabilizing or returning to climatological norms. These mixed tendencies illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic System. Atmosphere: Hot spot shifts toward Europe Ocean: North Pole Temperatures at depth returning to 1990s values Sea Ice: Summer extent at record minimum Greenland: Recent warm temperatures associated with net ice loss Biology: increasing tundra shrub cover and variable treeline advance; up to 80% declines in some caribou herds while goose populations double Land: Increase in permafrost temperatures The Arctic Report Card 2007 is introduced as a means of presenting clear, reliable and concise information on recent observations of environmental conditions in the Arctic, relative to historical time series records. It provides a method of updating and expanding the content of the State of the Arctic Report, published in fall 2006, to reflect current conditions. Material presented in the Report Card is prepared by an international team of scientists and is peer-reviewed by topical experts nominated by the US Polar Research Board. The audience for the Arctic Report Card is wide, including scientists, students, teachers, decision makers and the general public interested in Arctic environment and science. The web-based format will facilitate future timely updates of the content.

Distribution of North Pacific right whales (Eubalaena japonica) as shown by 19th and 20th century whaling catch and sighting records

North Pacific right whales (Eubalaena japonica) were extensively exploited in the 19th century, and their recovery was further retarded (severely so in the eastern population) by illegal Soviet catches in the 20th century, primarily in the 1960s. Monthly plots of right whale sightings and catches from both the 19th and 20th centuries are provided, using data summarized by Scarff (1991, from the whale charts of Matthew Fontaine Maury) and Brownell et al. (2001), respectively. Right whales had an extensive offshore distribution in the 19th century, and were common in areas (such as the Gulf of Alaska and Sea of Japan) where few or no right whales occur today. Seasonal movements of right whales are apparent in the data, although to some extent these reflect survey and whaling effort. That said, these seasonal movements indicate a general northward migration in spring from lower latitudes, and major concentrations above 40°N in summer. Sightings diminished and occurred further south in autumn, and few animals were recorded anywhere in winter. These north-south migratory movements support the hypothesis of two largely discrete populations of right whales in the eastern and western North Pacific. Overall, these analyses confirm that the size and range of the right whale population is now considerably diminished in the North Pacific relative to the situation during the peak period of whaling for this species in the 19th century. For management purposes, new surveys are urgently required to establish the present distribution of this species; existing data suggest that the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, the Okhotsk Sea, the Kuril Islands and the coast of Kamchatka are the areas with the greatest likelihood of finding right whales today.

Estimating abundance of killer whales in the nearshore waters of the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands using line-transect sampling

Killer whale (Orcinus orca Linnaeus, 1758) abundance in the North Pacific is known only for a few populations for which extensive longitudinal data are available, with little quantitative data from more remote regions. Line-transect ship surveys were conducted in July and August of 2001–2003 in coastal waters of the western Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. Conventional and Multiple Covariate Distance Sampling methods were used to estimate the abundance of different killer whale ecotypes, which were distinguished based upon morphological and genetic data. Abundance was calculated separately for two data sets that differed in the method by which killer whale group size data were obtained. Initial group size (IGS) data corresponded to estimates of group size at the time of first sighting, and post-encounter group size (PEGS) corresponded to estimates made after closely approaching sighted groups.

Eastern temperate North Pacific offshore killer whales (Orcinus orca): Occurrence, movements, and insights into feeding ecology

Beginning in the late 1980s, large groups of previously unidentified killer whales (Orcinus orca) were sighted off the west coast of Vancouver Island and in the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. Scientists working in this region produced two killer whale photo-identification catalogues that included both transient (mammal-eating) whales and 65 individual whales that investigators believed represented a distinct killer whale community (Ford et al. 1992, Heise et al. 1993). It was thought that these killer whales maintained a generally offshore distribution and were provisionally termed “offshores”; a term that has since been used as a population identifier for the eastern temperate North Pacific offshore killer whale population. Then in September 1992, 75 unidentified whales entered the Strait of Juan de Fuca just south and east of Victoria, British Columbia (Walters et al. 1992). Although most of these whales had not been seen before, two were matched to killer whales in the Queen Charlotte photo-identification catalogue (Ford et al. 1992, Heise et al. 1993) and were thus listed as “offshore” killer whales. During a similar time period, other large groups of killer whales, previously unidentified, were also being sighted off Alaska and California (Dahlheim et al. 1997; Nancy Black and Alisa Schulman- Janiger, unpublished data, respectively).

Killer Whale Predation on Belugas in Cook Inlet, Alaska: Implications for a Depleted Population

Killer whale predation on belugas in Cook Inlet, Alaska, has become a concern since the decline of these belugas was documented during the 1990s. Accordingly, killer whale sightings were compiled from systematic surveys, observer databases, and anecdotal accounts. Killer whales have been relatively common in lower Cook Inlet (at least 100 sightings from 1975 to 2002), but in the upper Inlet, north of Kalgin Island, sightings were infrequent (18 in 27 yr), especially prior to the 1990s. Beach cast beluga carcasses with teeth marks and missing flesh also provided evidence of killer whale predation. Most observed killer whale/beluga interactions were in the upper Inlet. During 11 of 15 observed interactions, belugas were obviously injured or killed, either through direct attacks or indirectly as a result of stranding. Assuming at least one beluga mortality occurred during the other four encounters, we can account for 21 belugas killed between 1985 and 2002. This would suggest a minimum estimate of roughly l/yr and does not include at least three instances where beluga calves accompanied an adult that was attacked.

Evidence of a Feeding Aggregation of Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) Around Kodiak Island, Alaska

The known summer feeding range of the North Pacific humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) extends from California, along the coasts of Oregon, Washington, and Alaska, into the Bering Sea, along the Aleutian Islands, the Sea of Okhotsk (Tomilin 1957), and to northern Japan (Rice 1977). In feeding areas of the northeastern Pacific Ocean, humpback whale photoidentification research has been concentrated off California (Calambokidis et al. 1993), southeastern Alaska (Darling and McSweeney 1985, Baker et al. 1986, 1992; Perry et al. 1990), Prince William Sound in Alaska (von Ziegesar 1992), the Oregon and Washington coasts (Calambokidis et al. 1993), and British Columbia (Darling and McSweeney 1985; Graerne Ellis, unpublished data). Results of these photoidentification studies have documented that individual whales tend to return to the same general areas in subsequent years (Darling and McSweeney 1985, Baker et al. 1986, Calambokidis et a(. 1996, von Ziegesar et al. 1994).

Use of chemical tracers in assessing the diet and foraging regions of eastern North Pacific killer whales

Top predators in the marine environment integrate chemical signals acquired from their prey that reflect both the species consumed and the regions from which the prey were taken. These chemical tracers—stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen; persistent organic pollutant (POP) concentrations, patterns and ratios; and fatty acid profiles—were measured in blubber biopsy samples from North Pacific killer whales (Orcinus orca) (n = 84) and were used to provide further insight into their diet, particularly for the offshore group, about which little dietary information is available. The offshore killer whales were shown to consume prey species that were distinctly different from those of sympatric resident and transient killer whales. In addition, it was confirmed that the offshores forage as far south as California. Thus, these results provide evidence that the offshores belong to a third killer whale ecotype. Resident killer whale populations showed a gradient in stable isotope profiles from west (central Aleutians) to east (Gulf of Alaska) that, in part, can be attributed to a shift from off-shelf to continental shelf-based prey. Finally, stable isotope ratio results, supported by field observations, showed that the diet in spring and summer of eastern Aleutian Island transient killer whales is apparently not composed exclusively of Steller sea lions.

Use of chemical tracers in assessing the diet and foraging regions of eastern North Pacific killer whales

Top predators in the marine environment integrate chemical signals acquired from their prey that reflect both the species consumed and the regions from which the prey were taken. These chemical tracers—stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen; persistent organic pollutant (POP) concentrations, patterns and ratios; and fatty acid profiles—were measured in blubber biopsy samples from North Pacific killer whales (Orcinus orca) (n = 84) and were used to provide further insight into their diet, particularly for the offshore group, about which little dietary information is available. The offshore killer whales were shown to consume prey species that were distinctly different from those of sympatric resident and transient killer whales. In addition, it was confirmed that the offshores forage as far south as California. Thus, these results provide evidence that the offshores belong to a third killer whale ecotype. Resident killer whale populations showed a gradient in stable isotope profiles from west (central Aleutians) to east (Gulf of Alaska) that, in part, can be attributed to a shift from off-shelf to continental shelf-based prey. Finally, stable isotope ratio results, supported by field observations, showed that the diet in spring and summer of eastern Aleutian Island transient killer whales is apparently not composed exclusively of Steller sea lions.

Notes on Microtine Rodents from the Brooks Range, Arctic Alaska

In connection with parasitological studies carried on during 1949 for the U.S. Public Health Service, the writer collected a considerable number of mammals from the northern edge of the "Endicott" section of the Brooks Range, in Arctic Alaska. The mammalian fauna of this region is poorly known, since apparently no previous collecting has been done here. About 200 microtine rodents were collected, mostly near Tolugak Lake (latitude 68° 24' N, longitude 151° 26' W), near the head of the Anaktuvuk River Valley. A few specimens were also taken at Umiat, on the Colville River, about 80 miles north of Tolugak Lake (latitude 69° 23' N, longitude 152° 10' W). Five species are represented: Clethrionomys rutilis dawsoni (Merriam), Microtus oeconomus macfarlani Merriam, Microtus miurus paneaki, n. subsp., Lemmus trimucronatus alascensis Merriam and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus rubricatus (Richardson). More complete details concerning their ecology and reproduction will be presented in a later paper, at which time the other mammals obtained will also be considered. The specimens have been deposited in the U.S. National Museum.

Studies on the Helminth Fauna of Alaska. XXXVIl. Description of Schizorchis caballeroi n. sp. (Cestoda: Anoplocephalidae), with Notes on Other Parasites of Ochotona

Schizorchis caballeroi n. sp. has been described from the collared pika, Ochotona collaris (Nelson), from Alaska, and has been distinguished morphologically from its congeners, S. ochotonae Hansen, 1948, and S. altaica Gvozdev, 1951. Nine species of helminths have been described 10 dale from North American pikas, O. collaris and O. princeps (Richardson). These mammals are markedly allopatric and do not share any species of helminth. Nematodes of two genera, Eugenuris Shults and Labiostomum Akhtar, 1941, occur in O. collaris as weIl as in palearctic species of Ochotona. This, along with other pertinent information, is taken to suggest that O. collaris has invaded North American more recently than did O. princeps or its precursor.

The Somatic Chromosomes of Some North American Marmots (Sciuridae), with Remarks on the Relationships of Marmota browerii Hall and Gilmore

Karyotypes are defined for two nearctic species of marmots, Marmota olympus (2n = 40) and M. vancouverensis (2n = 42), and supplemental information is included on the karyotypes of M. flaviventris, M. monax ochracea, and M. marmota. The six North American species of Marmota (NF = 66) comprise a distinct group as compared with the middle Asian species (NF = 70) for which the karyotypes are known. Karyologic findings and zoogeographic evidence based upon the distribution of two nearctic species of host-specific cestodes indicate that M. broweri, in northern Alaska, is a pre-Würm relict. Its affinities appear to be with the North American caligata-group rather than with the northeastern Siberian M. camtschatica. The occurrence on M. broweri of the Asian flea, Oropsylla silantiewi, has not been explained. Some ecological and behavioral characteristics of M. broweri are briefly described and compared with those of other species. Family groups of M. broweri hibernate together in single winter dens that are plugged at the entrance; copulation takes place before the animals emerge from the winter den, near mid-May; face-glands are utilized in marking of territory. French abstract: Les auteurs définissent les caryotypes de deux espèces néarctiques de marmottes, Marmota olympus (2n=40) et M. vancouverensis (2n=42), et donnent des précisions sur les caryotypes de M. flaviventris, M. monax ochracea et M. marmota. Les six especes de Marmota (NF=66) d'Amérique du Nord forment un groupe distinct des espèces d'Asie centrale (NF=70) dont Ie caryotype est connu. Les données caryologiques et les preuves zoogéographiques basées sur la répartition de deux espèces néarctiques de cestodes spécifiques de I'hôte démontrent que M. broweri, dans l'Alaska septentrional, est une relicte du pré-Würm. Elle semble avoir plus d'affinités avec Ie groupe nord américain de caligata qu'avec M. camtschatica du nord de la Sibérie. La présence sur M. broweri de la puce asiatique, Oropsylla silantiewi, n'est pas expliquée. Quelques caractéristiques écologiques et éthologiques de M. broweri sont décrites brièvement et comparées avec celles d'autres espèces. Les groupes familiaux de M. broweri hibernent dans un meme terrier dont l'entrée est bouchée; la copulation à lieu avant que les animaux sortent de leur abri hivernal, it la mi-mai ; ils se servent de leurs glandes faciales pour marquer leur territoire.

Paleoclimate Reconstruction Along The Pole-Equator-Pole Transect of the Americas (PEP 1)

Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP 1 transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and late-glacial lake level history.