Spatial and Temporal Spread of Bovine Tuberculosis in Wild White-Tailed Deer in Michigan

In 1975, a wild white-tailed deer infected with bovine tuberculosis was shot in the northeastern Lower Peninsula, Michigan. The shooting of a second infected deer in the same area in 1994 triggered ongoing disease surveillance in the region. By 2002, bovine tuberculosis had been confirmed in 12 Michigan counties: from 449 deer; two elk; 41 non-cervid wildlife; one captive cervid facility and 28 cattle herds. We analyzed geographic spread of disease since the surveillance began and investigated factors influencing the prevalence of disease within the infected area. These analyses reveal that 78 percent of tuberculous deer came from within a 1560 km2 'core' area, within which the prevalence of apparent disease averaged 2.5 percent. Prevalence declined dramatically outside of the core and was an order of magnitude lower 30 km from its boundary. This prevalence gradient was highly significant (P<0.0001) and did not alter over the 6 year surveillance period (P= 0.98). Within the core, deer density and supplemental feeding by hunters were positively and independently correlated with tuberculosis prevalence in deer. Together, these two factors explained 55 percent of the variation in prevalence. We conclude that bovine tuberculosis was already well established in the deer population in 1994, that the infected area has not expanded significantly since that time, and that deer over-abundance and food supplementation have both contributed to ongoing transmission of disease. Managers are currently enforcing prohibitions on deer feeding in the core and are working to lower deer numbers there through increased hunting pressure.

The Change from Red to White Meat: The Role of Technology

Since 1950, the composition of the U.S. meat diet has shifted markedly from red meats to poultry. For example, from 1970 to 1984, on a percapita basis, beef consumption has declined by 6.4 percent, while chicken and turkey consumptions have increased by 37.9, and 42.5 percent respectively (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1985). The numerous studies of this phenomenon from the demand side (Chavas, 1983; Braschler, 1983; Nyankori and Miller, 1982; Moschini and Meilke, 1984; Wohlgenant, 1985, Thurman, 1987; Chalfant and Alston, 1988) have failed to achieve a consensus as to whether a change in taste contributed to this shift. One reason for the lack of consensus is that the very large price and quantity changes make it difficult to establish whether consumers are on a new indifference map. But there have been no comparable studies of the nature and causes of the technological change that has made these large consumption and price changes possible. A decrease in the relative price of poultry with respect to red meat is in any case a major explanation of recent shifts in meat consumption patterns. The main reason for such a decrease appears to be a higher rate of technical progress in the poultry industry than in the red meat industry. Substantial productivity gains in both the production and marketing of poultry over the last two decades appears to have been translated into lower retail prices for poultry. Although some productivity gains have taken place in the red meat industry, they have not matched the cost reductions in the poultry industry (Chavas, 1987). Thus, a consumption shift from beef to poultry could possibly be interpreted as a response to changing relative prices, the structural change having occurred in the meat industry. This would imply that, if the beef industry desires to maintain or expand its market, it should seek a decrease in the production and marketing costs of beef.