Estimating the number of whales entering trade using DNA profiling and capture-recapture analysis of market products

Surveys of commercial markets combined with molecular taxonomy (i.e. molecular monitoring) provide a means to detect products from illegal, unregulated and/or unreported (IUU) exploitation, including the sale of fisheries bycatch and wild meat (bushmeat). Capture-recapture analyses of market products using DNA profiling have the potential to estimate the total number of individuals entering the market. However, these analyses are not directly analogous to those of living individuals because a ‘market individual’ does not die suddenly but, instead, remains available for a time in decreasing quantities, rather like the exponential decay of a radioactive isotope. Here we use mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and microsatellite genotypes to individually identify products from North Pacific minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata ssp.) purchased in 12 surveys of markets in the Republic of (South) Korea from 1999 to 2003. By applying a novel capture-recapture model with a decay rate parameter to the 205 unique DNA profiles found among 289 products, we estimated that the total number of whales entering trade across the five-year survey period was 827 (SE, 164; CV, 0.20) and that the average ‘half-life’ of products from an individual whale on the market was 1.82 months (SE, 0.24; CV, 0.13). Our estimate of whales in trade (reflecting the true numbers killed) was significantly greater than the officially reported bycatch of 458 whales for this period. This unregulated exploitation has serious implications for the survival of this genetically distinct coastal population. Although our capture-recapture model was developed for specific application to the Korean whale-meat markets, the exponential decay function could be modified to improve the estimates of trade in other wildmeat or fisheries markets or abundance of living populations by noninvasive genotyping.

Ecology, stable isotopes, and management of grassland songbirds at National Park Service properties on the Great Plains

Grassland ecosystems have been severely reduced and grassland bird populations have experienced consistent declines. National Park Service (NPS) properties on the Great Plains provide breeding habitat for grassland songbirds, though little is known about the quality of this habitat. A short-term study on songbirds at three NPS properties complemented current monitoring, providing an among park comparison addressing grassland bird productivity and fidelity relative to NPS property size. During 2008-2009, I assessed avian species richness, and estimated bird density and grassland songbird nest success. Bird species richness was greatest at small and medium sites, while number of nesting obligate species was greatest at the large site. Species-specific densities varied among sites, with few grassland obligates occurring at all three sites. Nest success estimates for grassland obligates were highest at the small site and lower at the large site. Another method to quantify habitat quality is assessment of breeding site fidelity. Current extrinsic markers used in monitoring site fidelity are inadequate for small birds; stable isotope analyses provide an alternative. I compared two techniques for assigning stable isotope tissue origin and measured grassland songbird site fidelity. My method of assigning origin provided site-specific variances of expected stable isotope values, an improvement over the most commonly used method. Fidelity tended to be higher at the large site, which may indicate a more robust breeding community of grassland birds. The small size of two of my sites precluded large sample sizes and made strong inferences difficult. To quantify how scientists cope with weak inference, I conducted a literature review. Strong inference was rarely observed, and most authors of weak-inference papers provided specific management recommendations. I suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty from weak inference. Managers should consider my results within the context of regional and global management and the extent to which their unit might aide songbird conservation.

POPULATION ESTIMATES

In dealing with population estimates, we need to determine first the reason for estimating the population. If we are dealing with a local situation, are we concerned with a local estimate? If we are dealing with a regional problem, are we concerned with a regional estimate? The blackbird problem is chiefly a regional problem, but we need to look at broader horizons than just local or regional situations. Are we dealing with a national problem? Is this problem a year-round one or is it a seasonal problem? We may want to know just purely the number of birds we are dealing with. Another reason for doing population estimates might be to determine the effectiveness of some lethal control method that has been employed. Fortunately, those species with which we are most concerned are those not on the endangered species list at the present time. Many Ohio farmers would like to see the Red-winged Blackbird on the endangered species list, I think, but it is not there. My particular interest in population estimates is to determine if we can develop an early warning system for the agriculturists, so that they can better anticipate the time they can expect damage from birds. A lot of methods have been tried in the past.