2 resultados para Modified Delphi method

em DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln


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A demographic model is developed based on interbirth intervals and is applied to estimate the population growth rate of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Gulf of Maine. Fecundity rates in this model are based on the probabilities of giving birth at time t after a previous birth and on the probabilities of giving birth first at age x. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate these probabilities using sighting data collected for individually identified whales. Female survival rates are estimated from these same sighting data using a modified Jolly–Seber method. The youngest age at first parturition is 5 yr, the estimated mean birth interval is 2.38 yr (SE = 0.10 yr), the estimated noncalf survival rate is 0.960 (SE = 0.008), and the estimated calf survival rate is 0.875 (SE = 0.047). The population growth rate (l) is estimated to be 1.065; its standard error is estimated as 0.012 using a Monte Carlo approach, which simulated sampling from a hypothetical population of whales. The simulation is also used to investigate the bias in estimating birth intervals by previous methods. The approach developed here is applicable to studies of other populations for which individual interbirth intervals can be measured.

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This study compares information-seeking behavior of Bachelor of Science and Master of Science students in the fields of agricultural extension and education. The authors surveyed Iranian students in departments of agricultural extension and education at four universities in Tehran, Shiraz, Mollasani, and Kermanshah. This study focused on three aspects: (1) comparison of amounts of information-seeking behavior between Bachelor of Science and Master of Science agricultural extension and education students; (2) comparison of information-seeking behavior varieties in Bachelor of Science and Master of Science agricultural extension and education students; (3) Comparison of amounts of available information resources at four universities and its effectiveness on students' information-seeking behavior; and (4) comparison of research and educational outputs in Bachelor of Science and Master of Science students. Scale free technique, division by mean method, principal components analysis technique, Delphi method, t-test, correlation and regression tools were used for data analysis. This study revealed that Bachelor of Science students' information-seeking behavior is for improving educational output, but Master of Science students' information-seeking behavior is for promoting research output. Among varieties of Internet searching skills, library searching skills, and awareness of library information-seeking methods with students' information-seeking behavior, there are not significant differences between two groups of students.