Estimating the number of whales entering trade using DNA profiling and capture-recapture analysis of market products

Surveys of commercial markets combined with molecular taxonomy (i.e. molecular monitoring) provide a means to detect products from illegal, unregulated and/or unreported (IUU) exploitation, including the sale of fisheries bycatch and wild meat (bushmeat). Capture-recapture analyses of market products using DNA profiling have the potential to estimate the total number of individuals entering the market. However, these analyses are not directly analogous to those of living individuals because a ‘market individual’ does not die suddenly but, instead, remains available for a time in decreasing quantities, rather like the exponential decay of a radioactive isotope. Here we use mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and microsatellite genotypes to individually identify products from North Pacific minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata ssp.) purchased in 12 surveys of markets in the Republic of (South) Korea from 1999 to 2003. By applying a novel capture-recapture model with a decay rate parameter to the 205 unique DNA profiles found among 289 products, we estimated that the total number of whales entering trade across the five-year survey period was 827 (SE, 164; CV, 0.20) and that the average ‘half-life’ of products from an individual whale on the market was 1.82 months (SE, 0.24; CV, 0.13). Our estimate of whales in trade (reflecting the true numbers killed) was significantly greater than the officially reported bycatch of 458 whales for this period. This unregulated exploitation has serious implications for the survival of this genetically distinct coastal population. Although our capture-recapture model was developed for specific application to the Korean whale-meat markets, the exponential decay function could be modified to improve the estimates of trade in other wildmeat or fisheries markets or abundance of living populations by noninvasive genotyping.

RP94-217 No. 18 Use of Crop Futures and Options by the Nontrader

Crop producers make a number of decisions that are market related. They may be categorized as financial decisions, production decisions, or marketing decisions. All three decisions depend on what prices are likely to be at some specific time in the future. The marketing decisions is complex. This research publication discusses the number of alternatives that are available even for the producer who does not directly buy or sell futures or options contracts.

The traceability/trackability of illegal trade in whale products: a proposal to evaluate the technical functionality of DNA registers

The Government of Japan, through the Institute for Cetacean Research (Tokyo), has established a DNA register for whales taken under special permit or otherwise destined for commercial markets (IWC 2005; IWC 2010a). The functionality of this DNA register, for the purposes of traceability/trackability, is critical to the current negotiations on the future of the IWC (IWC 2010b). Here we request access to the DNA register for 3 species of whales (fin, sei and Antarctic minke) for the purposes of tracking the origins of whale products purchased at commercial outlets in Seoul, South Korea and Santa Monica, US, as described in the Baker et al. (2010). The attached proposal was included as Supplementary Material to this published article and submitted for consideration to the IWC Data Availability Group (DAG) on 12 April 2010. However, the DAG declined to forward the proposal to the data holders, recommending that we “wait until the Scientific Committee has reviewed the proposed DNA register/market sampling text in the draft Consensus Decision in accordance with the Commission's instructions and then reported to the Commission itself” (email 16 May 2010). We assume that this will take place at SC/62 in Agadir and request that this proposal be considered for endorsement by the DNA subcommittee.

Grain Storage Costs and Rental Rates

Trends in Grain Storage - Commercial grain storage eliminates the need to monitor grain conditions and, hence, offers the peace of mind that unsold grain will remain in condition. There may be a cost trade-off between this reduced storage risk and the cost of on-farm storage.