NIGHT FLIGHT ACROSS A BLUE SKY: PROGNOSTICS

The purpose of this presentation is to gain new perspectives on pest control and related phenomena. Some will call it “blue sky.” I would claim it informal futuristics. Systems men call such efforts feedforward; others grandify it with “prognostics.” Some say prognostics is one of the leading challenges of the day. We must anticipate future developments and imagine or invent new alternatives as a background for rational choice. The activity can influence today’s decisions, modify our concepts of risks and probable payoffs, and can help those of us who ask: “What am I really doing; what should I be doing?”

Review of Global Warming in the 21st Century. Volume 1: Our Evolving Climate Crisis; Volume 2: Melting Ice and Warming Seas; Volume 3: Plants and Animals in Peril by Bruce E. Johansen

There is compelling evidence that Planet Earth is on the path to an era of global warming that has serious implications for the well-being of both people and nature. This three-volume synthesis of literature will be a marvelous place for both the public and new scholars interested in global warming to begin their pursuit of the subject. The author captures the best of the scientific literature and press materials appearing in recent years. The utility of these volumes as a resource for gaining a broad background or pursuing a particular aspect of global warming is enhanced by Johansen's talent for explaining with clarity a vast and rapidly growing subject.

Protected Species – Research Permits and the Value of Basic Research

The complexities involved in obtaining permits for field research using protected species continue to increase. In October 1988, Congress amended the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) to increase the documentation required to obtain a scientific research permit (PL 100-711). Applicants for scientific research permits must now submit “information indicating that the taking is required to further a bona fide scientific purpose and does not involve unnecessary duplication of research.”

Paedomorphic Ossification in Porpoises with an Emphasis on the Vaquita (Phocoena sinus)

Heterochrony, the change in timing of developmental processes, is thought to be a key process shaping the numerous limb morphologies of tetrapods. Through a delayed offset in digit development, all cetaceans (i.e., whales, dolphins, and porpoises) have evolved supernumary phalanges (hyperphalangy). Moreover, some toothed cetaceans further alter digital morphologies by delayed endochondral and perichondral ossification of individual elements. In the harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena), these paedomorphic patterns have created poorly ossified phalangeal elements. However, no studies have addressed this morphology in other porpoise taxa. This study documents the timing of carpal and digital epiphyseal ossification in the poorly studied vaquita (Phocoena sinus) based on radiographs (n = 18) of known-age specimens. Patterns of vaquita manus ossification were compared between other porpoise and delphinid taxa. Adult vaquitas are paedomorphic in carpal, metacarpal, and digital development as they maintain a juvenile ossification pattern relative to that of other porpoise species of equivalent ages. Vaquitas also ossify fewer carpal elements as compared to other porpoise and some delphinid cetaceans, and ossification arrests relative to that of the harbor porpoise. Vaquitas also display sexual dimorphism as females reach a greater body size and display more ossified elements in the manus relative to their paedomorphic male cohorts.

Genetic isolation and morphological divergence of Black Sea bottlenose dolphins

The Black Sea is a semi-enclosed body of water that differs from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea in terms of its biodiversity, oceanographical and ecological characteristics. There is growing international concern about pollution in the Black Sea and other anthropogenic threats to its fauna. The bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is one of three species of cetaceans living in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Despite considerable research on bottlenose dolphins elsewhere, the extent of human impacts on the Black Sea populations is unknown. Previous attempts to award special conservation status to Black Sea cetaceans have failed specifically because policy makers have viewed their ecological and evolutionary uniqueness as equivocal. This study assessed divergence between Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean bottlenose dolphins for 26 cranial measurements (n = 75 adult bottlenose dolphin skulls) and mitochondrial DNA (n = 99 individuals). Black Sea bottlenose dolphins are smaller than those in the Mediterranean, and possess a uniquely shaped skull. As in a previous study, we found the Black Sea population to be genetically distinct, with relatively low levels of mtDNA diversity. Population genetic models suggest that Black Sea bottlenose dolphins have so little gene flow with the Mediterranean due to historical isolation that they should be managed separately.

Preliminary report on the photo-identification of blue whales off Isla de Chiloé, Chile from 2004 to 2006

Photo identification of individual blue whales during summer and autumn off the northwestern Isla de Chiloé, southern Chile, were collected from marine surveys conducted from 2004 to 2006. Re-sightings of individual whales both within and between years may provide evidence of residency and site fidelity by blue whales in the area. These records further document the importance of the northwestern Isla de Chiloé as a feeding area for blue whales. These records also highlight the necessity of further comparisons with photographic catalogues from other areas in southern Chile, off the northwestern coast of South America and the Pacific coast of Central America to better understand seasonal movements, distribution of individuals along the eastern South Pacific, and their wintering areas.

The Vaquita: Can It Survive?

The vaquita (Spanish for "little cow"), or Gulf of California harbor porpoise (Phocoena sinus), has the most limited range of any marine cetacean and is probably the rarest. It has been caught incidentally in gill nets set commercially for totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), large fish that were over-exploited in the upper Gulf of California until they, too, were endangered. In 1975. the Mexican Government announced a total indefinite closure on fishing for totoaba, Between the time this porpoise was described as new to science (1958) and its listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as Endangered (early 1985), the vaquita was known from only 26 confirmed records (partial remains found on beaches) and a few sightings of live animals. (Note: the vernacular name "cochito" was cited when this animal was listed, but biologists have since learned that "vaquita" is the term used by most local fishermen.) The Endangered Species Technical Bulletin story about its listing (see BULLETIN Vol. X No. 2) said the species was on the brink of extinction "if it still exists."

Chemical contaminants in juvenile gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) from a subsistence harvest in Arctic feeding grounds

Gray whales are coastal migratory baleen whales that are benthic feeders. Most of their feeding takes place in the northern Pacific Ocean with opportunistic feeding taking place during their migrations and residence on the breeding grounds. The concentrations of organochlorines and trace elements were determined in tissues and stomach contents of juvenile gray whales that were taken on their Arctic feeding grounds in the western Bering Sea during a Russian subsistence harvest. These concentrations were compared to previously published data for contaminants in gray whales that stranded along the west coast of the US during their northbound migration. Feeding in coastal waters during their migrations may present a risk of exposure to toxic chemicals in some regions. The mean concentration (standard error of the mean, SEM) of Σ PCBs [1400 (130) ng/g, lipid weight] in the blubber of juvenile subsistence whales was significantly lower than the mean level [27 000 (11 000) ng/g, lipid weight] reported previously in juvenile gray whales that stranded in waters off the west coast of the US. Aluminum in stomach contents of the subsistence whales was high compared to other marine mammal species, which is consistent with the ingestion of sediment during feeding. Furthermore, the concentrations of potentially toxic chemicals in tissues were relatively low when compared to the concentrations in tissues of other marine mammals feeding at higher trophic levels. These chemical contaminant data for the subsistence gray whales substantially increase the information available for presumably healthy animals.

Biological Background on Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops spp.) in the 'Live-Capture' Trade and Specifically on the Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphin, T. Aduncus

The most significant cetacean trade items until commercial whaling all but ceased in the 1990s (aside from scientific exchanges of tissues etc.) were meat and blubber from baleen whales for human consumption. Since then, live dolphins and 'small' whales for display (and to some extent for research, military use, and 'therapy') have become the most significant cetacean 'products' in international trade. Trade in live cetaceans is presently dominated by bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops spp.), beluga whales (Debhinapterns leucas) and to a lesser extent killer whales (Orcinus orca) (Fisher and Reeves 2005). In the past, most of the dolphins in trade were common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) originating in the United States, Mexico and the Black Sea, but since the 1980s the United States has essentially stopped its capture-for-export activities and in 2001Mexico implemented a moratorium on live-captures. The source countries for dolphins in trade are now geographically diverse, but Cuba and Japan are currently major source nations for common bottlenose dolphins. Russia is the only current source for belugas. Russia and Japan have become the main potential sources for killer whales since Iceland ceased exporting them in the 1980s or early 1990s.

Saving the Vaquita: Immediate Action, Not More Data

The recent likely extinction of the baiji (Chinese river dolphin [Lipotes vexillifer]) (Turvey et al. 2007) makes the vaquita (Gulf of California porpoise [Phocoena sinus]) the most endangered cetacean. The vaquita has the smallest range of any porpoise, dolphin, or whale and, like the baiji, has long been threatened primarily by accidental deaths in fishing gear (bycatch) (Rojas-Bracho et al. 2006). Despite repeated recommendations from scientific bodies and conservation organizations, no effective actions have been taken to remove nets from the vaquita’s environment. Here, we address three questions that are important to vaquita conservation: (1) How many vaquitas remain? (2) How much time is left to find a solution to the bycatch problem? and (3) Are further abundance surveys or bycatch estimates needed to justify the immediate removal of all entangling nets from the range of the vaquita? Our answers are, in short: (1) there are about 150 vaquitas left, (2) there are at most 2 years within which to find a solution, and (3) further abundance surveys or bycatch estimates are not needed. The answers to the first two questions make clear that action is needed now, whereas the answer to the last question removes the excuse of uncertainty as a delay tactic. Herein we explain our reasoning.

Whaling as Science

In an open letter published last year in the New York Times, 21 distinguished scientists (including three Nobel laureates) criticized Japan's program of scientific research whaling, noting its poor design and unjustified reliance upon lethal sampling. In a recent Forum article in BioScience, Aron, Burke, and Freeman (2002) castigate the letter's signers and accuse them of meddling in political issues without sufficient knowledge of the science involved in those issues.

Gray Whales (Eschrichtius robustus) Off Sakhalin Island, Russia: Seasonal And Annual Patterns Of Occurrence

The annual return, seasonal occurrence, and site fidelity of Korean-Okhotsk or western gray whales on their feeding grounds off northeastern Sakhalin Island, Russia, were assessed by boat-based photo-identification studies in 1994-1998. A total of 262 pods were observed, ranging in size from 1 to 9 whales with an overall mean of 2.0'. Sixty-nine whales were individually identified, and a majority of all whales (71.0%) were observed in multiple years. Annual sighting frequencies ranged from 1 to 18 d, with a mean of 5.4 d. The percentage of whales re-identified from previous years showed a continuous annual increase, reaching 87.0% by the end of the study. Time between first and last sighting of identified individuals within a given year was 1-85 d, with an overall mean of 40.6 d. Annual calf proportions ranged from 4.3% (1997) to 13.2% (1998), and mother-calf separations generally occurred between July and September. The seasonal site fidelity and annual return of whales to this part of the Okhotsk Sea emphasize its importance as a primary feeding ground for this endangered population.

A Porpoise, Australophocaena dioptrica, Previously Identified As Phocoena spinipinnis, From Heard Island

Guiler, Burton and Gales (1987) reported a cranium (Tasmanian Museum No. A141 1) they identified as belonging to Burmeister’s porpoise, Phocoena spinipinnis Burmeister, 1865 from Heard Island (53°S 73°30’E). They noted that P. spinipinnis was previously known only from the cold-temperate coastal waters of South America and claimed that this cranium was evidence that the species has a much wider distribution than previously known. We have examined the photographs and details of their specimen and re-identify it here as Australophocaena dioptrica (Lahille, 1912) (family Phocoenidae). Barnes (1985) listed several features that distinguish the skulls of species within the subfamily Phocoenoidinae (including A. dioptrica) from those species within the Phocoeninae (including Phocoena spp.). Features that distinguish A. dioptrica from P. spinipinnis, dearly visible in the published photographs of the cranium from Heard Island, include: a relatively small, oval-shaped temporal fossa; an elevated, high-vaulted braincase that slopes abruptly onto the narial region; relatively large, high and convex premaxillary bosses; dorso-ventrally expanded zygomatic process of the squamosal; short and antetoposteriorly expanded postorbital process of the fronds; and maxillae extendmg nearly to the dorsal margin of the supraoccipital on the top of the skull. In all these features, the Heard Island specimen conforms with those of A. dioptrica. Crania of A. dioptrica have been illustrated by Hamilton (1941), Norris and McFarland (1958), Brownell (1975), Fordyce et al. (1984), and Barnes (1985). Crania of P. spinipinnis have been illustrated by Norris and McFarland (1958) and Brownell and Praderi (1984).

Estimating the number of whales entering trade using DNA profiling and capture-recapture analysis of market products

Surveys of commercial markets combined with molecular taxonomy (i.e. molecular monitoring) provide a means to detect products from illegal, unregulated and/or unreported (IUU) exploitation, including the sale of fisheries bycatch and wild meat (bushmeat). Capture-recapture analyses of market products using DNA profiling have the potential to estimate the total number of individuals entering the market. However, these analyses are not directly analogous to those of living individuals because a ‘market individual’ does not die suddenly but, instead, remains available for a time in decreasing quantities, rather like the exponential decay of a radioactive isotope. Here we use mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and microsatellite genotypes to individually identify products from North Pacific minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata ssp.) purchased in 12 surveys of markets in the Republic of (South) Korea from 1999 to 2003. By applying a novel capture-recapture model with a decay rate parameter to the 205 unique DNA profiles found among 289 products, we estimated that the total number of whales entering trade across the five-year survey period was 827 (SE, 164; CV, 0.20) and that the average ‘half-life’ of products from an individual whale on the market was 1.82 months (SE, 0.24; CV, 0.13). Our estimate of whales in trade (reflecting the true numbers killed) was significantly greater than the officially reported bycatch of 458 whales for this period. This unregulated exploitation has serious implications for the survival of this genetically distinct coastal population. Although our capture-recapture model was developed for specific application to the Korean whale-meat markets, the exponential decay function could be modified to improve the estimates of trade in other wildmeat or fisheries markets or abundance of living populations by noninvasive genotyping.