3 resultados para Holt-Winters

em DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln


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In response to the increasing global demand for energy, oil exploration and development are expanding into frontier areas of the Arctic, where slow-growing tundra vegetation and the underlying permafrost soils are very sensitive to disturbance. The creation of vehicle trails on the tundra from seismic exploration for oil has accelerated in the past decade, and the cumulative impact represents a geographic footprint that covers a greater extent of Alaska’s North Slope tundra than all other direct human impacts combined. Seismic exploration for oil and gas was conducted on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in the winters of 1984 and 1985. This study documents recovery of vegetation and permafrost soils over a two-decade period after vehicle traffic on snow-covered tundra. Paired permanent vegetation plots (disturbed vs. reference) were monitored six times from 1984 to 2002. Data were collected on percent vegetative cover by plant species and on soil and ground ice characteristics. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models, with temporally and spatially autocorrelated errors, to analyze the effects of vegetation type and initial disturbance levels on recovery patterns of the different plant growth forms as well as soil thaw depth. Plant community composition was altered on the trails by species-specific responses to initial disturbance and subsequent changes in substrate. Long-term changes included increased cover of graminoids and decreased cover of evergreen shrubs and mosses. Trails with low levels of initial disturbance usually improved well over time, whereas those with medium to high levels of initial disturbance recovered slowly. Trails on ice-poor, gravel substrates of riparian areas recovered better than those on ice-rich loamy soils of the uplands, even after severe initial damage. Recovery to pre-disturbance communities was not possible where trail subsidence occurred due to thawing of ground ice. Previous studies of disturbance from winter seismic vehicles in the Arctic predicted short-term and mostly aesthetic impacts, but we found that severe impacts to tundra vegetation persisted for two decades after disturbance under some conditions. We recommend management approaches that should be used to prevent persistent tundra damage.

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The City of Denton is situated 35 miles north of north-central Texas. This area is within one of the major N-S corridors for migratory birds. It is also far enough south so that winters are generally mild and open. The average rainfall of 30 inches sustains good stands of pecan and several species of oak, which serve as excellent roost sites for blackbirds. For the past several years, summering flocks of blackbirds have chosen Denton as a roosting site. Interviews with oldtimers here indicate that flocks of birds have always been around. It is only in recent years that their numbers seem much greater and the resulting mess deeper. They also say that "in the old days" if flocks appeared and started creating a problem, they were simply shot with little fuss resulting. This method is not generally acceptable today.

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The Federal Registration for Avitrol to be used in standing field corn restricts use to application under supervision of Governmental agencies trained in bird control. The majority of current Avitrol labels state, "For use by or under supervision of government agencies or pest control operators. Not for sale to the public." This slight difference has already caused much discussion and the matter isn't resolved yet. There are different interpretations of this statement. Also for crops the material is only registered for field corn. There is a need for the material to be registered for sweet corn and sunflowers, although I do not believe the latter were grown as widely in Ohio in 1973 as in the past few years.