Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Dynamic Routing in Translucent WDM Optical Networks: The Intradomain Case

Translucent wavelength-division multiplexing optical networks use sparse placement of regenerators to overcome physical impairments and wavelength contention introduced by fully transparent networks, and achieve a performance close to fully opaque networks at a much less cost. In previous studies, we addressed the placement of regenerators based on static schemes, allowing for only a limited number of regenerators at fixed locations. This paper furthers those studies by proposing a dynamic resource allocation and dynamic routing scheme to operate translucent networks. This scheme is realized through dynamically sharing regeneration resources, including transmitters, receivers, and electronic interfaces, between regeneration and access functions under a multidomain hierarchical translucent network model. An intradomain routing algorithm, which takes into consideration optical-layer constraints as well as dynamic allocation of regeneration resources, is developed to address the problem of translucent dynamic routing in a single routing domain. Network performance in terms of blocking probability, resource utilization, and running times under different resource allocation and routing schemes is measured through simulation experiments.

Dynamic Routing in Translucent WDM Optical Networks

Translucent WDM optical networks use sparse placement of regenerators to overcome the impairments and wavelength contention introduced by fully transparent networks, and achieve a performance close to fully opaque networks with much less cost. Our previous study proved the feasibility of translucent networks using sparse regeneration technique. We addressed the placement of regenerators based on static schemes allowing only fixed number of regenerators at fixed locations. This paper furthers the study by proposing a suite of dynamical routing schemes. Dynamic allocation, advertisement and discovery of regeneration resources are proposed to support sharing transmitters and receivers between regeneration and access functions. This study follows the current trend in optical networking industry by utilizing extension of IP control protocols. Dynamic routing algorithms, aware of current regeneration resources and link states, are designed to smartly route the connection requests under quality constraints. A hierarchical network model, supported by the MPLS-based control plane, is also proposed to provide scalability. Experiments show that network performance is improved without placement of extra regenerators.

Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Generalizing the dynamic field theory of spatial cognition across real and developmental time scales

Within cognitive neuroscience, computational models are designed to provide insights into the organization of behavior while adhering to neural principles. These models should provide sufficient specificity to generate novel predictions while maintaining the generality needed to capture behavior across tasks and/or time scales. This paper presents one such model, the Dynamic Field Theory (DFT) of spatial cognition, showing new simulations that provide a demonstration proof that the theory generalizes across developmental changes in performance in four tasks—the Piagetian A-not-B task, a sandbox version of the A-not-B task, a canonical spatial recall task, and a position discrimination task. Model simulations demonstrate that the DFT can accomplish both specificity—generating novel, testable predictions—and generality—spanning multiple tasks across development with a relatively simple developmental hypothesis. Critically, the DFT achieves generality across tasks and time scales with no modification to its basic structure and with a strong commitment to neural principles. The only change necessary to capture development in the model was an increase in the precision of the tuning of receptive fields as well as an increase in the precision of local excitatory interactions among neurons in the model. These small quantitative changes were sufficient to move the model through a set of quantitative and qualitative behavioral changes that span the age range from 8 months to 6 years and into adulthood. We conclude by considering how the DFT is positioned in the literature, the challenges on the horizon for our framework, and how a dynamic field approach can yield new insights into development from a computational cognitive neuroscience perspective.