6 resultados para Growth Models (economics)

em DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln


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Drawing on longitudinal data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999, this study used IRT modeling to operationalize a measure of parental educational investments based on Lareau’s notion of concerted cultivation. It used multilevel piecewise growth models regressing children’s math and reading achievement from entry into kindergarten through the third grade on concerted cultivation and family context variables. The results indicate that educational investments are an important mediator of socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities, completely explaining the black-white reading gap at kindergarten entry and consistently explaining 20 percent to 60 percent and 30 percent to 50 percent of the black-white and Hispanic-white disparities in the growth parameters, respectively, and approximately 20 percent of the socioeconomic gradients. Notably, concerted cultivation played a more significant role in explaining racial/ethnic gaps in achievement than expected from Lareau’s discussion, which suggests that after socioeconomic background is controlled, concerted cultivation should not be implicated in racial/ethnic disparities in learning.

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Stabilizing human population size and reducing human-caused impacts on the environment are keys to conserving threatened species (TS). Earth's human population is ~ 7 billion and increasing by ~ 76 million per year. This equates to a human birth-death ratio of 2.35 annually. The 2007 Red List prepared by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) categorized 16,306 species of vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and other organisms (e.g., lichens, algae) as TS. This is ~ 1 percent of the 1,589,161 species described by IUCN or ~ 0.0033 percent of the believed 5,000,000 total species. Of the IUCN’s described species, vertebrates comprised relatively the most TS listings within respective taxonomic categories (5,742 of 59,811), while invertebrates (2,108 of 1,203,175), plants (8,447 of 297,326), and other species (9 of 28,849) accounted for minor class percentages. Conservation economics comprises microeconomic and macroeconomic principles involving interactions among ecological, environmental, and natural resource economics. A sustainable-growth (steady-state) economy has been posited as instrumental to preserving biological diversity and slowing extinctions in the wild, but few nations endorse this approach. Expanding growth principles characterize most nations' economic policies. To date, statutory fine, captive breeding cost, contingent valuation analysis, hedonic pricing, and travel cost methods are used to value TS in economic research and models. Improved valuation methods of TS are needed for benefit-cost analysis (BCA) of conservation plans. This Chapter provides a review and analysis of: (1) the IUCN status of species, (2) economic principles inherent to sustainable versus growth economies, and (3) methodological issues which hinder effective BCAs of TS conservation.

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Purpose--The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach--The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their life, namely, young, adult and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stage, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health on educational investments and growth. We address potential endogeneity by using various strategies, such as controlling for country specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/AIDS prevalence. Findings--We show theoretically that an increased probability of premature death leads to less investment in human capital, and consequently slower growth. Empirically we show that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries and these falling life expectancies are indeed associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth world wide. Originality/value--The theoretical and empirical findings reveal a causal link flowing from health to growth, which has been largely overlooked by the existing literature. The main implication is that health investments, that decrease the incidence of diseases like HIV/AIDS resulting on increases in life expectancy, through its complementarity with human capital investments lead to long run growth..

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The spread of infectious disease among and between wild and domesticated animals has become a major problem worldwide. Upon analyzing the dynamics of wildlife growth and infection when the diseased animals cannot be identified separately from healthy wildlife prior to the kill, we find that harvest-based strategies alone have no impact on disease transmission. Other controls that directly influence disease transmission and/or mortality are required. Next, we analyze the socially optimal management of infectious wildlife. The model is applied to the problem of bovine tuberculosis among Michigan white-tailed deer, with non-selective harvests and supplemental feeding being the control variables. Using a two-state linear control model, we find a two-dimensional singular path is optimal (as opposed to a more conventional bang-bang solution) as part of a cycle that results in the disease remaining endemic in the wildlife. This result follows from non-selective harvesting and intermittent wildlife productivity gains from supplemental feeding.

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Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) in the South Shetland Islands are recovering from 19th-century exploitation more slowly than the main population at South Georgia. To document demographic changes associated with the recovery in the South Shetlands, we monitored fur seal abundance and reproduction in the vicinity of Elephant Island during austral summers from 1986/1987 through 1994/1995. Total births, mean and variance of birth dates, and average daily mortality rates were estimated from daily live pup counts at North Cove (NC) and North Annex (NA) colonies on Seal Island. Sightings of leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) and incidents of leopard seal predation on fur seal pups were recorded opportunistically during daily fur seal research at both sites. High mortality of fur seal pups, attributed to predation by leopard seals frequently observed at NC, caused pup numbers to decline rapidly between January and March (i.e., prior to weaning) each year and probably caused a long-term decline in the size of that colony. The NA colony, where leopard seals were never observed, increased in size during the study. Pup mortality from causes other than leopard seal predation appeared to be similar at the two sites. The number of pups counted at four locations in the Elephant Island vicinity increased slowly, at an annual rate of 3.8%, compared to rates as high as 11% at other locations in the South Shetland Islands. Several lines of circumstantial evidence are consistent with the hypothesis that leopard seal predators limit the growth of the fur seal population in the Elephant Island area and perhaps in the broader population in the South Shetland Islands. The sustained growth of this fur seal population over many decades rules out certain predator–prey models, allowing inference about the interaction between leopard seals and fur seals even though it is less thoroughly studied than predator–prey systems of terrestrial vertebrates of the northern hemisphere. Top-down forces should be included in hypotheses for future research on the factors shaping the recovery of the fur seal population in the South Shetland Islands.

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According to estimates released by the Bureau of the Census in August, 2009, Nebraska’s total housing stock increased by 5,529 units between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008, an increase of 0.7 percent for the year. This represented an estimated rate of growth in housing stock slightly below the state’s estimated rate of population growth, which was 0.8 percent for the same time period.