State of the Arctic October 2006

This State of the Arctic Report presents a review of recent data by an international group of scientists who developed a consensus on the information content and reliability. The report highlights data primarily from 2000 to 2005 with a first look at winter 2006, providing an update to some of the records of physical processes discussed in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004, 2005). Of particular note: • Atmospheric climate patterns are shifting (Fig. 1). The late winter/spring pattern for 2000–2005 had new hot spots in northeast Canada and the East Siberian Sea relative to 1980–1999. Late winter 2006, however, shows a return to earlier climate patterns, with warm temperatures in the extended region near Svalbard. • Ocean salinity and temperature profiles at the North Pole and in the Beaufort Sea, which changed abruptly in the 1990s, show that conditions since 2000 have relaxed toward the pre-1990 climatology, although 2001–2004 has seen an increase in northward ocean heat transport through Bering Strait (Fig. 2), which is thought to impact sea ice loss. • Sea ice extent continues to decrease. The sea ice extent in September 2005 was the minimum observed in summer during the satellite era (beginning in 1979), marking an unprecedented series of extreme ice extent minima beginning in 2002 (Fig. 3). The sea ice extent in March 2006 was also the minimum observed in winter during the satellite era. • Tundra vegetation greenness increased, primarily due to an increase in the abundance of shrubs. Boreal forest vegetation greenness decreased, possibly due to drought conditions (Fig. 4). • There is increasing interest in the stability of the Greenland ice sheet. The velocity of outlet glaciers increased in 2005 relative to 2000 and 1995, but uncertainty remains with regard to the total mass balance. • Permafrost temperatures continue to increase. However, data on changes in the active layer thickness (the relatively thin layer of ground between the surface and permafrost that undergoes seasonal freezing and thawing) are less conclusive. While some of the sites show a barely noticeable increasing trend in the thickness of the active layer, most of them do not. • Globally, 2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record (beginning in 1880), with the Arctic providing a large contribution toward this increase. Many of the trends documented in the ACIA are continuing, but some are not. Taken collectively, the observations presented in this report indicate that during 2000–2005 the Arctic system showed signs of continued warming. However, there are a few indications that certain elements may be recovering and returning to recent climatological norms (for example, the central Arctic Ocean and some wind patterns). These mixed tendencies further illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic physical system. They underline the importance of maintaining and expanding efforts to observe and better understand this important component of the climate system to provide accurate predictions of its future state.

Arctic Report Card 2007: Tracking Recent Environmental Changes

Collectively, the observations indicate that the overall warming of the Arctic system continued in 2007. There are some elements that are stabilizing or returning to climatological norms. These mixed tendencies illustrate the sensitivity and complexity of the Arctic System. Atmosphere: Hot spot shifts toward Europe Ocean: North Pole Temperatures at depth returning to 1990s values Sea Ice: Summer extent at record minimum Greenland: Recent warm temperatures associated with net ice loss Biology: increasing tundra shrub cover and variable treeline advance; up to 80% declines in some caribou herds while goose populations double Land: Increase in permafrost temperatures The Arctic Report Card 2007 is introduced as a means of presenting clear, reliable and concise information on recent observations of environmental conditions in the Arctic, relative to historical time series records. It provides a method of updating and expanding the content of the State of the Arctic Report, published in fall 2006, to reflect current conditions. Material presented in the Report Card is prepared by an international team of scientists and is peer-reviewed by topical experts nominated by the US Polar Research Board. The audience for the Arctic Report Card is wide, including scientists, students, teachers, decision makers and the general public interested in Arctic environment and science. The web-based format will facilitate future timely updates of the content.

A Preliminary Note on Trichinosis Investigations in Alaska

Trichinosis in the arctic regions of the world has received considerable attention during recent years, particularly since the work of Roth (1948) in Greenland. In Connell's (1949) review of arctic trichinosis some Alaskan and Canadian records were included but, until now, little has been known of the status of the disease in Alaska. Information available at the present time indicates that the incidence of trichinosis is high in circumpolar carnivores and that marine mammals have a definite place in its epizootiology. Present knowledge cannot explain the survival of trichinosis in marine mammal populations, but it is evident that they may serve as important sources of human infection. Up to the present time the following mammals from Alaska have been found to be infected: From the arctic coast-polar bear, Thalarctas maritimus; arctic fox, Alapex lagapus irmuitus; red fox, Vulpes fulva alascemis; white whale, Delphinapterus leucas; Eskimo dog. From south of the Brooks Range--brown and grizzly bears, Ursus spp.; wolf, Canis lupus ssp.; wolverine. Gula l. luscus. At the time of writing, nearly ail species of land carnivores in Alaska have been examined as well as many other mammalian species less likely to be infected, including various rodents, shrews, and others.

Segregation of migration by feeding ground origin in North Atlantic humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

Results from a large-scale, capture–recapture study of humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae in the North Atlantic show that migration timing is influenced by feeding ground origin. No significant differences were observed in the number of individuals from any feeding area that were re-sighted in the common breeding area in the West Indies. However, there was a relationship between the proportion (logit transformed) of West Indies sightings and longitude (r2 = 0.97, F1,3 = 98.27, P = 0.0022) suggesting that individuals feeding farther to the east are less likely to winter in the West Indies. A relationship was also detected between sighting date in the West Indies and feeding area. Mean sighting dates in the West Indies for individuals identified in the Gulf of Maine and eastern Canada were significantly earlier than those for animals identified in Greenland, Iceland and Norway (9.97 days, t179 = 3.53, P = 0.00054). There was also evidence for sexual segregation in migration; males were seen earlier on the breeding ground than were females (6.63 days, t105 = 1.98, P = 0.050). This pattern was consistently observed for animals from all feeding areas; a combined model showed a significant effect for both sex (F1 = 5.942, P = 0.017) and feeding area (F3 =4.756, P=0.0038). The temporal difference in occupancy of the West Indies between individuals from different feeding areas, coupled with sexual differences in migratory patterns, presents the possibility that there are reduced mating opportunities between individuals from different high latitude areas.

Studies on the Helminth Fauna of Alaska. XXVII. The Occurrence of Larvae of Trichinella spiralis in Alaskan Mammals

In 1948 much interest in trichinosis in arctic regions was aroused, particularly by the findings of Thorborg et al. (1948), who investigated serious outbreaks occurring among the Eskimo of West Greenland during 1947. Consequently, with the founding of the Arctic Health Research Center in the autumn of 1948, a study of trichinosis in Alaska was the first project to be initiated by the Zoonotic Disease Section (formerly Animal-borne Disease Section) of this Center. Field work was begun in January, 1949, and a preliminary note on trichinosis in Alaskan mammals was published by Brandly and Rausch (1950). The subject of trichinosis in arctic regions was reviewed by Connell (1949). The survey to determine the prevalence of T. spiralis in mammals in Alaska was terminated in the spring of 1953; this paper reports the results of this work.

Millennial-Scale Climate Variability during the Last Glacial Period in the Tropical Andes

Millennial-scale climate variation during the Last Glacial period is evident in many locations worldwide, but it is unclear if such variation occurred in the interior of tropical South America, and, if so, how the low-latitude variation was related to its high-latitude counterpart. A high-resolution record, derived from the deep drilling of sediments on the floor of Lake Titicaca in the southern tropical Andes, is presented that shows clear evidence of millennial-scale climate variation between ~60 and 20 ka BP. This variation is manifested by alternations of two interbedded sedimentary units. The two units have distinctive sedimentary, geochemical, and paleobiotic properties that are controlled by the relative abundance of terrigenous or nearshore components versus pelagic components. The sediments of more terrigenous or nearshore nature likely were deposited during regionally wetter climates when river transport of water and sediment was higher, whereas the sediments of more pelagic character were deposited during somewhat drier climates regionally. The majority of the wet periods inferred from the Lake Titicaca sediment record are correlated with the cold events in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, indicating that increased intensity of the South American summer monsoon was part of near-global scale climate excursions.