Estimating the extent of spatial association of Mycobacterium bovis infection in badgers in Ireland

Mycobacterium bovis infects the wildlife species badgers Meles meles who are linked with the spread of the associated disease tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. Control of livestock infections depends in part on the spatial and social structure of the wildlife host. Here we describe spatial association of M. bovis infection in a badger population using data from the first year of the Four Area Project in Ireland. Using second-order intensity functions, we show there is strong evidence of clustering of TB cases in each the four areas, i.e. a global tendency for infected cases to occur near other infected cases. Using estimated intensity functions, we identify locations where particular strains of TB cluster. Generalized linear geostatistical models are used to assess the practical range at which spatial correlation occurs and is found to exceed 6 in all areas. The study is of relevance concerning the scale of localized badger culling in the control of the disease in cattle.

The Duration of the Effects of Repeated Widespread Badger Culling on Cattle Tuberculosis Following the Cessation of Culling

Background: In the British Isles, control of cattle tuberculosis (TB) is hindered by persistent infection of wild badger (Meles meles) populations. A large-scale field trial—the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT)—previously showed that widespread badger culling produced modest reductions in cattle TB incidence during culling, which were offset by elevated TB risks for cattle on adjoining lands. Once culling was halted, beneficial effects inside culling areas increased, while detrimental effects on adjoining lands disappeared. However, a full assessment of the utility of badger culling requires information on the duration of culling effects. Methodology/Principal Findings: We monitored cattle TB incidence in and around RBCT areas after culling ended. We found that benefits inside culled areas declined over time, and were no longer detectable by three years post-culling. On adjoining lands, a trend suggesting beneficial effects immediately after the end of culling was insignificant, and disappeared after 18 months post-culling. From completion of the first cull to the loss of detectable effects (an average five-year culling period plus 2.5 years post-culling), cattle TB incidence was 28.7% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.7 to 35.8% lower) inside ten 100 km2 culled areas than inside ten matched no-culling areas, and comparable (11.7% higher, 95% CI: 13.0% lower to 43.4% higher, p = 0.39) on lands #2 km outside culled and no-culling areas. The financial costs of culling an idealized 150 km2 area would exceed the savings achieved through reduced cattle TB, by factors of 2 to 3.5. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings show that the reductions in cattle TB incidence achieved by repeated badger culling were not sustained in the long term after culling ended and did not offset the financial costs of culling. These results, combined with evaluation of alternative culling methods, suggest that badger culling is unlikely to contribute effectively to the control of cattle TB in Britain.

Written Communication in a Sixth-Grade Mathematics Classroom

In this action research study of my sixth grade mathematics classroom, I investigated what happened to students’ mathematical achievement when they had increased practice on written explanations to problems. I wanted to see if writing out solutions to problems helped them overall in daily mathematics. By using specific mathematic vocabulary more frequently and deliberately during my instruction, I wanted to investigate whether students would correctly use specific math vocabulary in their written explanations. I also increased my expectations of the students’ written explanations throughout the research project. I wanted to determine whether students would try to meet or even exceed my expectations. I discovered that students used vocabulary more frequently in their written explanations by providing definitions of vocabulary versus using the vocabulary in context. I found little to no evidence suggesting that my students’ mathematical achievement changed through more practice on written communication; however, I did find as my expectations for the quality of students’ written explanations increased, most of my students improved their written explanations of problems and my teaching became more deliberate and specific. As a result of this research, I plan to continue having students communicate their mathematical ideas through written communication while continuing to focus on specific mathematical vocabulary and its purpose in written communication.

Impact of Bottom Flange Confinement Reinforcement on Performance of Prestressed Concrete Bridge Girders

For many years AASHTO provided no recommendation to state DOT’s on bottom flange confinement reinforcement for their bridge superstructures. The 1996 edition of AASHTO Standard Specification for Highway Bridges stated that nominal reinforcement be placed to enclose the prestressing steel from the end of the girder for at least a distance equal to the girder’s height. A few years later the 2004 AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specification changed the distance over which the confinement was to be distributed from 1.0h to 1.5h, and gave minimum requirements for the amount of steel to be used, No.3 bars, and their maximum spacing, not to exceed 6”. Research was undertaken to study what impact, if any, confinement reinforcement has on the performance of prestressed concrete bridge girders. Of particular interest was the effect confinement had on the transfer length, development length, and vertical shear capacity of the fore mentioned members. First, an analytical investigation was performed on the subject, and then an experimental investigation followed which consisted of designing, fabricating, and testing eight tee-girders and three NU1100 girders with particular attention paid to the amount and distribution of confinement reinforcement placed at the end of each girder. The results of the study show: 1) neither the amount or distribution of confinement reinforcement had a significant effect on the initial or final transfer length of the prestress strands; 2) at the AASHTO calculated development length, no significant impact from confinement was found on either the nominal flexural capacity of bridge girders or bond capacity of the prestressing steel; 3) the effects from varied confinement reinforcement on the shear resistance of girders tested was negligible, however, distribution of confinement did show to have an impact on the prestressed strands’ bond capacity; 4) confinement distribution across the entire girder did increase ductility and reduced cracking under extreme loading conditions.

RP92-217 No. 19 Cost of Grain Storage

Grain marketing decisions are among the toughest the farm owner/operator or manager must make. Grain producers store grain to speculate on receiving higher prices, earn a return above storage costs, or to take advantage of government programs. Prices must increase enough to cover the additional costs, or forward contract prices must exceed current prices by more than the cost of storage in order to justify forward pricing. The gain in prices received can come from both changes in price level and changes in basis. This research publication discusses all the areas of the cost of grain storage.