Model complexity affects transient population dynamics following a dispersal event: A case study with pea aphids

Stage-structured population models predict transient population dynamics if the population deviates from the stable stage distribution. Ecologists’ interest in transient dynamics is growing because populations regularly deviate from the stable stage distribution, which can lead to transient dynamics that differ significantly from the stable stage dynamics. Because the structure of a population matrix (i.e., the number of life-history stages) can influence the predicted scale of the deviation, we explored the effect of matrix size on predicted transient dynamics and the resulting amplification of population size. First, we experimentally measured the transition rates between the different life-history stages and the adult fecundity and survival of the aphid, Acythosiphon pisum. Second, we used these data to parameterize models with different numbers of stages. Third, we compared model predictions with empirically measured transient population growth following the introduction of a single adult aphid. We find that the models with the largest number of life-history stages predicted the largest transient population growth rates, but in all models there was a considerable discrepancy between predicted and empirically measured transient peaks and a dramatic underestimation of final population sizes. For instance, the mean population size after 20 days was 2394 aphids compared to the highest predicted population size of 531 aphids; the predicted asymptotic growth rate (λmax) was consistent with the experiments. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed. Includes 4 supplemental files.

Contributions of demography and dispersal parameters to the spatial spread of a stage-structured insect invasion

Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.

Ultrastructure of the Interface Between Stages of Eimeria funduli/i> (Apicomplexa) and Hepatocytes of the Longnose Killifish, Fundulus similis

The interface between stages of Eimeria funduli and hepatocytes of the experimentally infected killifish Fundulus similis was studied ultrastructurally. Parasitophorous vacuoles (PV's) in which meronts, macrogamonts, and microgamonts developed were lined by an inner, smooth membrane and an outer, ribosome-studded membrane. The outer membrane bordered on the cytoplasm of the host cell, whereas the inner one limited the PV. The origins of these membranes have not been determined with certainty, but images were observed in which both membranes appeared to be continuous with the outer nuclear membrane of the host cell. Furthermore, the outer PV membrane was continuous with membranes of rough endoplasmic reticulum in the host cell. For stages which were rapidly growing or differentiating, the inner membrane blebbed into the PV. Blebbing ceased and ribosomes detached from the outer membrane after maturation of the meront or fertilization of the macrogamont. Blebbing appears to be a mechanism by which nutrients transfer from the host to the parasite. During sporogony, the inner PV membrane acquired a thin layer of electron dense material, but otherwise membranes lining the PV remained intact. The two PV membranes, probably together with dense material of parasitic origin lining the inner membrane, appear to serve as the oocyst wall enclosing the sporocysts until they are released in the intermediate host.

Social cohesion among kin, gene flow without dispersal and the evolution of population genetic structure in the killer whale (Orcinus orca)

In social species, breeding system and gregarious behavior are key factors influencing the evolution of large-scale population genetic structure. The killer whale is a highly social apex predator showing genetic differentiation in sympatry between populations of foraging specialists (ecotypes), and low levels of genetic diversity overall. Our comparative assessments of kinship, parentage and dispersal reveal high levels of kinship within local populations and ongoing male-mediated gene flow among them, including among ecotypes that are maximally divergent within the mtDNA phylogeny. Dispersal from natal populations was rare, implying that gene flow occurs without dispersal, as a result of reproduction during temporary interactions. Discordance between nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies was consistent with earlier studies suggesting a stochastic basis for the magnitude of mtDNA differentiation between matrilines. Taken together our results show how the killer whale breeding system, coupled with social, dispersal and foraging behaviour, contributes to the evolution of population genetic structure.

Intraspecific Comparison of Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, and Dispersal Among Three Subspecies of Townsend’s Big-Eared Bats, Corynorhinus townsendii townsendii, C. t. pallescens, and the Endangered C. t. birginianus

Townsend’s big-eared bat, Corynorhinus townsendii, is distributed broadly across western North America and in two isolated, endangered populations in central and eastern United States. There are five subspecies of C. townsendii; C. t. pallescens, C. t. australis, C. t. townsendii, C. t. ingens, and C. t. virginianus with varying degrees of concern over the conservation status of each. The aim of this study was to use mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA data to examine genetic diversity, population differentiation, and dispersal of three C. townsendii subspecies. C. t. virginianus is found in isolated populations in the eastern United States and was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act in 1979. Concern also exists about declining populations of two western subspecies, C. t. pallescens and C. t. townsendii. Using a comparative approach, estimates of the genetic diversity within populations of the endangered subspecies, C. t. virginianus, were found to be significantly lower than within populations of the two western subspecies. Further, both classes of molecular markers revealed significant differentiation among regional populations of C. t. virginianus with most genetic diversity distributed among populations. Genetic diversity was not significantly different between C. t. townsendii and C. t. pallescens. Some populations of C. t. townsendii are not genetically differentiated from populations of C. t. pallescens in areas of sympatry. For the western subspecies gene flow appears to occur primarily through male dispersal. Finally, geographic regions representing significantly differentiated and genetically unique populations of C. townsendii virginianus are recognized as distinct evolutionary significant units.

Evidence for Millennial-Scale Climate Change During Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 at Little Lake, Western Oregon, U.S.A.

Pollen and geochemical data from Little Lake, western Oregon, suggest several patterns of millennial-scale environmental change during marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 (14,100–27,600 cal yr B.P.) and the latter part of MIS 3 (27,600–42,500 cal yr B.P.). During MIS 3, a series of transitions between warm- and cold-adapted taxa indicate that temperatures oscillated by ca. 2±–4±C every 1000–3000 yr. Highs and lows in summer insolation during MIS 3 are generally associated with the warmest and coldest intervals. Warm periods at Little Lake correlate with warm sea-surface temperatures in the Santa Barbara Basin. Changes in the strength of the subtropical high and the jet stream may account for synchronous changes at the two sites. During MIS 2, shifts between mesic and xeric subalpine forests suggest changes in precipitation every 1000–3000 yr. Increases in Tsuga heterophylla pollen at 25,000 and 22,000 cal yr B.P. imply brief warmings. Minimum summer insolation and maximum global ice-volumes during MIS 2 correspond to cold and dry conditions. Fluctuations in precipitation at Little Lake do not correlate with changes in the Santa Barbara Basin and may be explained by variations in the strength of the glacial anticyclone and the position of the jet stream.