Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Host-Specificity of Myxoma Virus: Pathogenesis of South American and North American Strains of Myxoma Virus in Two North American Lagomorph Species

The pathogenesis of South American and North American myxoma viruses was examined in two species of North American lagomorphs, Sylvilagus nuttallii (mountain cottontail) and Sylvilagus audubonii (desert cottontail) both of which have been shown to have the potential to transmit the South American type of myxoma virus. Following infection with the South American strain (Lausanne, Lu), S. nuttallii developed both a local lesion and secondary lesions on the skin. They did not develop the classical myxomatosis seen in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). The infection at the inoculation site did not resolve during the 20-day time course of the trial and contained transmissible virus titres at all times. In contrast, S. audubonii infected with Lu had very few signs of disseminated infection and partially controlled virus replication at the inoculation site. The prototype Californian strain of myxoma virus (MSW) was able to replicate at the inoculation site of both species but did not induce clinical signs of a disseminated infection. In S. audubonii, there was a rapid response to MSW characterized by a massive T lymphocyte infiltration of the inoculation site by day 5. MSW did not reach transmissible titres at the inoculation site in either species. This might explain why the Californian myxoma virus has not expanded its host-range in North America.

The Phycodnaviridae: The Story of How Tiny Giants Rule the World

The family Phycodnaviridae encompasses a diverse and rapidly expanding collection of large icosahedral, dsDNA viruses that infect algae. These lytic and lysogenic viruses have genomes ranging from 160 to 560 kb. The family consists of six genera based initially on host range and supported by sequence comparisons. The family is monophyletic with branches for each genus, but the phycodnaviruses have evolutionary roots that connect them with several other families of large DNA viruses, referred to as the nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (NCLDV).The phycodnaviruses have diverse genome structures, some with large regions of noncoding sequence and others with regions of ssDNA. The genomes of members in three genera in the Phycodnaviridae have been sequenced. The genome analyses have revealed more than 1000 unique genes, with only 14 homologous genes in common among the three genera of phycodnaviruses sequenced to date. Thus, their gene diversity far exceeds the number of so-called core genes. Not much is known about the replication of these viruses, but the consequences of these infections on phytoplankton have global affects, including influencing geochemical cycling and weather patterns.

Scraping Behavior in Male White-tailed Deer as a Potential Means of Transmitting Chronic Wasting Disease

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has become a concern for wildlife managers and hunters across the United States. High prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in older male white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) suggests that sex-specific social behavior may contribute to the spread of the disease among males. Scraping is a marking behavior performed by male white-tailed deer during the rut in which a pawed depression and associated over-hanging branch are marked with saliva, glandular secretions, urine, and feces. We placed 71 and 35 motion-activated cameras on scrapes in DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge in western Nebraska and eastern Iowa from Oct. – Nov. 2005 and Sept. – Nov. 2006, respectively. We recorded 5009 encounters and 1830 direct interactions. We developed an ethogram of behaviors of interest at scrapes. We found that males interacted with scrapes more frequently than females (P < 0.001). Male interactions were more complex, with 69% consisting of ≥2 observed behaviors versus 25% and 13% for females and fawns. We identified individual male deer ≥2.5 years old and determined the minimum number of different scrapes individuals visited and the number of individuals that visit a single scrape. Individuals that appeared on camera ≥5 times visited a mean of 3.9 scrapes (range = 1-15) and traveled a mean minimum distance of 978 m between consecutive scrapes. A mean of 5.1 individuals visited a single scrape, and up to 43% of individuals returned to a scrape previously visited at least once. We modeled Risk Values based on frequency of occurrence, duration, and Threat Values of each behavior, for contacting and transmitting CWD prions at scrapes. Adult males had the highest total Risk Values for contacting CWD prions (114.1) and shedding prions (59.4). The “grasp-lick branch” behavior had the highest Risk Value for adult males for both contacting and transmitting prions. Our study reveals a sex specific social behavior in male white-tailed deer that has the potential to spread chronic wasting disease between adult males in the population.

Emerging Marine Diseases: Climate Links and Anthropogenic Factors

Mass mortalities due to disease outbreaks have recently affected major taxa in the oceans. For closely monitored groups like corals and marine mammals, reports of the frequency of epidemics and the number of new diseases have increased recently. A dramatic global increase in the severity of coral bleaching in 1997-98 is coincident with high El Niño temperatures. Such climate-mediated, physiological stresses may compromise host resistance and increase frequency of opportunistic diseases. Where documented, new diseases typically have emerged through host or range shifts of known pathogens. Both climate and human activities may have also accelerated global transport of species, bringing together pathogens and previously unexposed host populations.