Evaluation Method for Strategic Investments

Real Options Analysis (ROA) has become a complimentary tool for engineering economics. It has become popular due to the limitations of conventional engineering valuation methods; specifically, the assumptions of uncertainty. Industry is seeking to quantify the value of engineering investments with uncertainty. One problem with conventional tools are that they may assume that cash flows are certain, therefore minimizing the possibility of the uncertainty of future values. Real options analysis provides a solution to this problem, but has been used sparingly by practitioners. This paper seeks to provide a new model, referred to as the Beta Distribution Real Options Pricing Model (BDROP), which addresses these limitations and can be easily used by practitioners. The positive attributes of this new model include unconstrained market assumptions, robust representation of the underlying asset‟s uncertainty, and an uncomplicated methodology. This research demonstrates the use of the model to evaluate the use of automation for inventory control.

RP92-217 #2 Producer Marketing Mangement: Deferred Pricing Alternatives for Grain

Grain producers must make marketing decisions every day. First they must decide whether to price or hold grain. If they decide to price grain, they must then choose the most appropriate method of pricing: cash sale, forward contract, or hedging. If they decide to hold grain (not to price), they must choose the most appropriate method of retaining ownership. This fact sheet presents some guidelines to help producers choose the least costly method of owning grain or speculating on price level changes.

Tiered Pricing and Cost Functions: Are Equity, Cost Recovery and Economic Efficiency Compatible Goals?

Suppliers of water and energy are frequently natural monopolies, with their pricing regulated by governmental agencies. Pricing schemes are evaluated by the efficiency of the resource allocation they lead to, the capacity of the utilities to capture their costs and the distributional effects of the policies, in particular, impacts on the poor. One pricing approach has been average cost pricing, which guarantees cost recovery and allows utilities to provide their product at relatively low prices. However, average cost pricing leads to economically inefficient consumption levels, when sources of water and energy are limited and increasing the supply is costly. An alternative approach is increasing block rates (hereafter, IBR or tiered pricing), where individuals pay a low rate for an initial consumption block and a higher rate as they increase use beyond that block. An example of IBR is shown in Figure 1 (on next page), which shows a rate structure for residential water use. With the rates in Figure 1, a household would be charged $0.46 and $0.71 per hundred gallons for consumption below and above 21,000 gallons per month, respectively.