Assessing the Free Land Programs for Reversing Rural Depopulation

A number of small towns in the Great Plains have recently started to offer free land and other incentives to entice new residents in the hope of reversing persistent depopulation. Based on in-depth interviews, this study assesses the initial performance of the free land programs in six small towns in central Kansas and analyzes the factors that have affected the migration decisions of the new residents. The initial results of these programs have been impressive. Not only have they attracted multiple new residents and increased enrollments in local schools, but they have also elevated long-time residents' pride in their community and created a positive synergy. The new residents' migration decisions were influenced by a number of push and pull factors. The free land and other incentives are not enough to trigger migration, but they have effectively changed some migrants' destination choice to a small town in central Kansas. Without the free land, most new residents, particularly those from out of state, would not have moved there. Contrary to our expectations, the relative locations of small towns with respect to larger cities do not appear to have affected new residents' destination choice.

A New Birth-Interval Approach to Estimating Demographic Parameters of Humpback Whales

A demographic model is developed based on interbirth intervals and is applied to estimate the population growth rate of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Gulf of Maine. Fecundity rates in this model are based on the probabilities of giving birth at time t after a previous birth and on the probabilities of giving birth first at age x. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate these probabilities using sighting data collected for individually identified whales. Female survival rates are estimated from these same sighting data using a modified Jolly–Seber method. The youngest age at first parturition is 5 yr, the estimated mean birth interval is 2.38 yr (SE = 0.10 yr), the estimated noncalf survival rate is 0.960 (SE = 0.008), and the estimated calf survival rate is 0.875 (SE = 0.047). The population growth rate (l) is estimated to be 1.065; its standard error is estimated as 0.012 using a Monte Carlo approach, which simulated sampling from a hypothetical population of whales. The simulation is also used to investigate the bias in estimating birth intervals by previous methods. The approach developed here is applicable to studies of other populations for which individual interbirth intervals can be measured.