Estimating the number of whales entering trade using DNA profiling and capture-recapture analysis of market products

Surveys of commercial markets combined with molecular taxonomy (i.e. molecular monitoring) provide a means to detect products from illegal, unregulated and/or unreported (IUU) exploitation, including the sale of fisheries bycatch and wild meat (bushmeat). Capture-recapture analyses of market products using DNA profiling have the potential to estimate the total number of individuals entering the market. However, these analyses are not directly analogous to those of living individuals because a ‘market individual’ does not die suddenly but, instead, remains available for a time in decreasing quantities, rather like the exponential decay of a radioactive isotope. Here we use mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and microsatellite genotypes to individually identify products from North Pacific minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata ssp.) purchased in 12 surveys of markets in the Republic of (South) Korea from 1999 to 2003. By applying a novel capture-recapture model with a decay rate parameter to the 205 unique DNA profiles found among 289 products, we estimated that the total number of whales entering trade across the five-year survey period was 827 (SE, 164; CV, 0.20) and that the average ‘half-life’ of products from an individual whale on the market was 1.82 months (SE, 0.24; CV, 0.13). Our estimate of whales in trade (reflecting the true numbers killed) was significantly greater than the officially reported bycatch of 458 whales for this period. This unregulated exploitation has serious implications for the survival of this genetically distinct coastal population. Although our capture-recapture model was developed for specific application to the Korean whale-meat markets, the exponential decay function could be modified to improve the estimates of trade in other wildmeat or fisheries markets or abundance of living populations by noninvasive genotyping.

Elimination of All-Optical Cycles in Wavelength-Routed Optical Networks

A transparent (wide-area) wavelength-routed optical network may be constructed by using wavelength cross-connect switches connected together by fiber to form an arbitrary mesh structure. The network is accessed through electronic stations that are attached to some of these cross-connects. These wavelength cross-connect switches have the property that they may configure themselves into unspecified states. Each input port of a switch is always connected to some output port of the switch whether or not such a connection is required for the purpose of information transfer. Due to the presence of these unspecified states, there exists the possibility of setting up unintended alloptical cycles in the network (viz., a loop with no terminating electronics in it). If such a cycle contains amplifiers [e.g., Erbium- Doped Fiber Amplifiers (EDFA’s)], there exists the possibility that the net loop gain is greater than the net loop loss. The amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise from amplifiers can build up in such a feedback loop to saturate the amplifiers and result in oscillations of the ASE noise in the loop. Such all-optical cycles as defined above (and hereafter referred to as “white” cycles) must be eliminated from an optical network in order for the network to perform any useful operation. Furthermore, for the realistic case in which the wavelength cross-connects result in signal crosstalk, there is a possibility of having closed cycles with oscillating crosstalk signals. We examine algorithms that set up new transparent optical connections upon request while avoiding the creation of such cycles in the network. These algorithms attempt to find a route for a connection and then (in a post-processing fashion) configure switches such that white cycles that might get created would automatically get eliminated. In addition, our call-set-up algorithms can avoid the possibility of crosstalk cycles.