Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut

We estimated demographic parameters and harvest risks for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut, from 1976 to 2000. We computed survival and abundance from capture–recapture and recovery data (630 marks) using a Burnham joint live–dead model implemented in program MARK. Annual mean total survival (including harvest) was 0.889 ± 0.179 ( x ± 1 SE) for cubs, 0.883 ± 0.087 for subadults (ages 1–4), 0.919 ± 0.044 for adult females, and 0.917 ± 0.041 for adult males. Abundance in the last 3 yr of study was 1,592 ± 361 bears. Mean size of newborn litters was 1.648 ± 0.098 cubs. By age 7, 0.97 ± 0.30 of available females were producing litters. Harvest averaged 38.4 ± 4.2 bears/year in the last 5 yr of study; however, the 2002–2007 kill averaged 56.4 bears/yr. We used a harvested Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to examine impacts of increasing rates of harvest. We estimated the current population growth rate, λH, to be 1.025 ± 0.032. Although this suggests the population is growing, progressive environmental changes may require more frequent population inventory studies to maintain the same levels of harvest risk.

Contributions of demography and dispersal parameters to the spatial spread of a stage-structured insect invasion

Stage-structured models that integrate demography and dispersal can be used to identify points in the life cycle with large effects on rates of population spatial spread, information that is vital in the development of containment strategies for invasive species. Current challenges in the application of these tools include: (1) accounting for large uncertainty in model parameters, which may violate assumptions of ‘‘local’’ perturbation metrics such as sensitivities and elasticities, and (2) forecasting not only asymptotic rates of spatial spread, as is usually done, but also transient spatial dynamics in the early stages of invasion. We developed an invasion model for the Diaprepes root weevil (DRW; Diaprepes abbreviatus [Coleoptera: Curculionidae]), a generalist herbivore that has invaded citrus-growing regions of the United States. We synthesized data on DRW demography and dispersal and generated predictions for asymptotic and transient peak invasion speeds, accounting for parameter uncertainty. We quantified the contributions of each parameter toward invasion speed using a ‘‘global’’ perturbation analysis, and we contrasted parameter contributions during the transient and asymptotic phases. We found that the asymptotic invasion speed was 0.02–0.028 km/week, although the transient peak invasion speed (0.03– 0.045 km/week) was significantly greater. Both asymptotic and transient invasions speeds were most responsive to weevil dispersal distances. However, demographic parameters that had large effects on asymptotic speed (e.g., survival of early-instar larvae) had little effect on transient speed. Comparison of the global analysis with lower-level elasticities indicated that local perturbation analysis would have generated unreliable predictions for the responsiveness of invasion speed to underlying parameters. Observed range expansion in southern Florida (1992–2006) was significantly lower than the invasion speed predicted by the model. Possible causes of this mismatch include overestimation of dispersal distances, demographic rates, and spatiotemporal variation in parameter values. This study demonstrates that, when parameter uncertainty is large, as is often the case, global perturbation analyses are needed to identify which points in the life cycle should be targets of management. Our results also suggest that effective strategies for reducing spread during the asymptotic phase may have little effect during the transient phase. Includes Appendix.

Contrasting patterns of genetic diversity at three different genetic markers in a marine mammal metapopulation

Many studies use genetic markers to explore population structure and variability within species. However, only a minority use more than one type of marker and, despite increasing evidence of a link between heterozygosity and individual fitness, few ask whether diversity correlates with population trajectory. To address these issues, we analyzed data from the Steller’s sea lion, Eumetiopias jubatus, where three stocks are distributed over a vast geographical range and where both genetic samples and detailed demographic data have been collected from many diverse breeding colonies. To previously published mitochondrial DNA(mtDNA) and microsatellite data sets,we have added new data for amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers, comprising 238 loci scored in 285 sea lions sampled from 23 natal rookeries. Genotypic diversity was low relative to most vertebrates, with only 37 loci (15.5%) being polymorphic. Moreover, contrasting geographical patterns of genetic diversity were found at the three markers, with Nei’s gene diversity tending to be higher for AFLPs and microsatellites in rookeries of the western and Asian stocks, while the highest mtDNA values were found in the eastern stock. Overall, and despite strongly contrasting demographic histories, after applying phylogenetic correction we found little correlation between genetic diversity and either colony size or demography. In contrast, we were able to show a highly significant positive relationship between AFLP diversity and current population size across a range of pinniped species, even though equivalent analyses did not reveal significant trends for either microsatellites or mtDNA.

Health Assessment of Weddell Seals, Leptonychotes weddellii, in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica

The demography of Weddell seals in eastern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, has been well studied during the past three decades (e.g. Stirling 1971; Siniff et al. 1977; Testa and Siniff 1987; Hastings and Testa 1998; Gelatt et al. 2001). Detailed life-history data are available on thousands of seals tagged as pups in McMurdo Sound, making this population a rich resource for wildlife health studies because health parameters can be evaluated in the light of reproductive histories and genetic relationships of several generations of tagged seals. Recently, evidence of exposure to diseases generally associated with domestic animals and feral wildlife has been detected in Antarctic wildlife (Austin and Webster 1993; Olsen et al. 1996; Gardner et al. 1997; Retamal et al. 2000; Foster et al. 2002) and this has generated concern and debate regarding the risks of disease introduction to Antarctic wildlife. Antibodies to viruses that have caused large die-offs in phocids in other areas of the world have been detected in Weddell seals (Bengtson et al. 1991), and there is a historical report of a mass die-off of crabeater seals that may have had a viral etiology (Laws and Taylor 1957).