Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Eastern temperate North Pacific offshore killer whales (Orcinus orca): Occurrence, movements, and insights into feeding ecology

Beginning in the late 1980s, large groups of previously unidentified killer whales (Orcinus orca) were sighted off the west coast of Vancouver Island and in the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. Scientists working in this region produced two killer whale photo-identification catalogues that included both transient (mammal-eating) whales and 65 individual whales that investigators believed represented a distinct killer whale community (Ford et al. 1992, Heise et al. 1993). It was thought that these killer whales maintained a generally offshore distribution and were provisionally termed “offshores”; a term that has since been used as a population identifier for the eastern temperate North Pacific offshore killer whale population. Then in September 1992, 75 unidentified whales entered the Strait of Juan de Fuca just south and east of Victoria, British Columbia (Walters et al. 1992). Although most of these whales had not been seen before, two were matched to killer whales in the Queen Charlotte photo-identification catalogue (Ford et al. 1992, Heise et al. 1993) and were thus listed as “offshore” killer whales. During a similar time period, other large groups of killer whales, previously unidentified, were also being sighted off Alaska and California (Dahlheim et al. 1997; Nancy Black and Alisa Schulman- Janiger, unpublished data, respectively).

Ecology, stable isotopes, and management of grassland songbirds at National Park Service properties on the Great Plains

Grassland ecosystems have been severely reduced and grassland bird populations have experienced consistent declines. National Park Service (NPS) properties on the Great Plains provide breeding habitat for grassland songbirds, though little is known about the quality of this habitat. A short-term study on songbirds at three NPS properties complemented current monitoring, providing an among park comparison addressing grassland bird productivity and fidelity relative to NPS property size. During 2008-2009, I assessed avian species richness, and estimated bird density and grassland songbird nest success. Bird species richness was greatest at small and medium sites, while number of nesting obligate species was greatest at the large site. Species-specific densities varied among sites, with few grassland obligates occurring at all three sites. Nest success estimates for grassland obligates were highest at the small site and lower at the large site. Another method to quantify habitat quality is assessment of breeding site fidelity. Current extrinsic markers used in monitoring site fidelity are inadequate for small birds; stable isotope analyses provide an alternative. I compared two techniques for assigning stable isotope tissue origin and measured grassland songbird site fidelity. My method of assigning origin provided site-specific variances of expected stable isotope values, an improvement over the most commonly used method. Fidelity tended to be higher at the large site, which may indicate a more robust breeding community of grassland birds. The small size of two of my sites precluded large sample sizes and made strong inferences difficult. To quantify how scientists cope with weak inference, I conducted a literature review. Strong inference was rarely observed, and most authors of weak-inference papers provided specific management recommendations. I suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty from weak inference. Managers should consider my results within the context of regional and global management and the extent to which their unit might aide songbird conservation.