Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Use of Natural Vegetative Barriers to Limit Expansion of Blacktailed Prairie Dog Towns

Prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) control has historically consisted of lethal methods to maintain, reduce, or eliminate populations in South Dakota and throughout the species range. Non-lethal methods of control are desired to meet changing management objectives for the black-tailed prairie dog. The use of naturally occurring buffer strips as vegetative barriers may be effective in limiting prairie dog town expansion. The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate effective width of vegetative barriers in limiting prairie dog towns expansion in western South Dakota; and 2) to document effect native vegetation height on expansion of prairie dog towns in western South Dakota. Five study sites were established in western South Dakota on rangelands containing prairie dog towns of adequate size. Electric fences were constructed for the purpose of excluding cattle and creating buffer strips of native grasses and shrubs. Prairie dogs were poisoned to create a prairie dog free buffer zone adjacent to active prairie dog towns. Grazing was allowed on both sides of the buffer strip. When grazing pressure was not sufficient, mowing was used to simulate grazing. Buffer strips were 100 meters long and 10, 25, and 40 meters in width. A zero meter control was included on all study sites. Quadrats (25) were randomly distributed throughout the buffer strips. Evaluation of study sites included visual obstruction, vegetation cover, vegetation frequency, vegetation height, and vegetation identification. Barrier penetration was evaluated by the presence of new active burrows behind vegetative barriers. Significant relationships were documented for both VOR and vegetation height. No significant difference was found between frequency of breakthroughs and buffer widths.