Electoral Systems and Ethnic Conciliation: A Structured, Focused Analysis of Vote-Pooling in Northern Ireland Elections 1998-2011

This research project examines the role of electoral system rules in affecting the extent of conciliatory behavior and cross-ethnic coalition making in Northern Ireland. It focuses on the role of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system in shaping party and voter incentives in a post-conflict divided society. The research uses a structured, focused comparison of the four electoral cycles since the Belfast Agreement of 1998. This enables a systematic examination of each electoral cycle using a common set of criteria focused on conciliation and cross-ethnic coalition making. Whilst preference voting is assumed to benefit moderate candidates, in Northern Ireland centrist and multi-ethnic parties outside of the dominant ethnic communities have received little electoral success. In Northern Ireland the primary effect of STV has not been to encourage inter-communal voting but to facilitate intra-community and intra-party moderation. STV has encouraged the moderation of the historically extreme political parties in each of the ethnic bloc. Patterns across electoral cycles suggest that party elites from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein have moderated their policy positions due to the electoral system rules. Therefore they have pursued lower-preference votes from within their ethnic bloc but in doing so have marginalized parties of a multi-ethnic or non-ethnic orientation.

Examining the relationship among genes, attention bias to emotion, and depression in youth

The investigation of biologically initiated pathways to psychological disorder is critical to advance our understanding of mental illness. Research has suggested that attention bias to emotion may be an intermediate trait for depression associated with biologically plausible candidate genes, such as the serotonin transporter (5-HTTLPR) and catechol-o-methyl-transferase (COMT) genes, yet there have been mixed findings in regards to the precise direction of effects. The experience of recent stressful life events (SLEs) may be an important, yet currently unstudied, moderator of the relationship between genes and attention bias as SLEs have been associated with both gene expression and attention to emotion. Additionally, although attention biases to emotion have been studied as a possible intermediate trait associated with depression, no study has examined whether attention biases within the context of measured genetic risk lead to increased risk for clinical depressive episodes over time. Therefore, this research investigated both whether SLEs moderate the link between genetic risk (5-HTTLPR and COMT) and attention bias to emotion and whether 5-HTTLPR and COMT moderated the relationship between attention biases to emotional faces and clinical depression onset prospectively across 18 months within a large community sample of youth (n= 467). Analyses revealed a differential effect of gene. Youth who were homozygous for the low expressing allele of 5-HTTLPR (S/S) and had experienced more recent SLEs within the last three months demonstrated preferential attention toward negative emotional faces (angry and sad). However, youth who were homozygous for the high expressing COMT genotype (Val/Val) and had experienced more recent SLEs showed attentional avoidance of positive facial expressions (happy). Additionally, youth who avoided negative emotion (i.e., anger) and were homozygous for the S allele of the 5-HTTLPR gene were at greater risk for prospective depressive episode onset. Increased risk for depression onset was specific to the 5-HTTLPR gene and was not found when examining moderation by COMT. These findings highlight the importance of examining risk for depression across multiple levels of analysis, such as combined genetic, environmental, and cognitive risk, and is the first study to demonstrate clear evidence of attention biases to emotion functioning as an intermediate trait predicting depression.